Padres vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Picks - August 21

Updated Aug. 21, 2023 9:00 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

Fernando Tatis Jr. and the San Diego Padres will take on Luis Arraez and the Miami Marlins at PETCO Park on Monday. The Padres are the favorite in this one, at -193, while the underdog Marlins have +162 odds to play spoiler. San Diego is the favorite on the run line (-1.5). An 8.5-run over/under has been set in this matchup.

The scheduled starters are Michael Wacha (9-2) for the San Diego Padres, and Ryan Weathers for the Miami Marlins.

Check out everything you need from a betting perspective on the Padres-Marlins game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks (odds via FOX Bet):

Padres vs. Marlins Game Information & Odds

When: Monday, August 21, 2023 at 9:40 PM ET
Where: PETCO Park in San Diego, California
How to Watch on TV: SDPA

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Padres	-193	+162	8.5	-117	-103	-1.5	+100	-120

Padres vs. Marlins Prediction

Score Prediction: Padres 4, Marlins 3
Total Prediction: Under 8.5 runs
Win Probabilities: Padres 56%, Marlins 44%

Padres vs. Marlins Betting Insights

The Padres have won 49, or 51.6%, of the 95 games they've played as favorites this season.
San Diego has entered 24 games this season favored by -193 or more and is 13-11 in those contests.
Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Padres have a 65.9% chance to win.
The Marlins have been underdogs in 65 games this season and have come away with the win 28 times (43.1%) in those contests.
This season, Miami has come away with a win three times in eight chances when named as an underdog of at least +162 or longer on the moneyline.
The Marlins have an implied victory probability of 38.2% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Padres Recent Betting Performance

The Padres went 4-5 over the nine games they were moneyline favorites in their last 10 matchups.
In their last 10 matchups (all 10 of them had set totals), the Padres and their opponents combined to go over the run total four times.
The Padres' ATS record is 4-6-0 over their past 10 games.

Padres Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	4-6
Runs Per Game	4
HR	10
ERA	3.99
K/9	9.1

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Padres Player Insights

Juan Soto has gone yard 24 times in the 2023 campaign while knocking in 75 runs, both totals that lead the Padres.
Of all hitters in baseball, Soto's home run total ranks him 18th, and his RBI tally ranks him 26th.
Tatis is batting .264 with 27 doubles, a triple, 20 home runs and 37 walks.
Tatis ranks 42nd in homers in MLB, and 48th in RBI.
Ha-Seong Kim leads the Padres with a team-high batting average of .278.
Manny Machado is batting .248 with 18 doubles, 23 home runs and 42 walks.

Padres Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Manny Machado	0.5 (-227)	1.5 (+125)	0.5 (+400)	0.5 (+120)
Ha-Seong Kim	0.5 (-204)	1.5 (+150)	0.5 (+650)	0.5 (+235)
Juan Soto	0.5 (-196)	1.5 (+135)	0.5 (+425)	0.5 (+145)
Luis Campusano	0.5 (-204)	0.5 (-204)	0.5 (+700)	0.5 (+170)
Jake Cronenworth	0.5 (-185)	0.5 (-185)	0.5 (+800)	0.5 (+185)

Learn more about this Padres vs. Marlins matchup on Fox Sports.

Marlins Recent Betting Performance

In eight games as underdogs over the last 10 matchups, the Marlins have a record of 4-4.
In their last 10 games with a total, the Marlins and their opponents have combined to hit the over five times.
Over their last 10 games, the Marlins are 6-4-0 against the spread.

Marlins Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	5-5
Runs Per Game	4.8
HR	15
ERA	4.81
K/9	9.1

Marlins Player Insights

Arraez leads the Marlins with a team-high batting average of .357.
Among all batters in MLB, Arraez's home run total is 276th and his RBI tally is 76th.
Jorge Soler has been a reliable source of runs this year, leading the lineup with 32 home runs and 67 runs batted in.
Soler ranks sixth overall in home runs and 38th in RBI this season.
Josh Bell has 22 doubles, 17 home runs and 50 walks while hitting .242.
Bryan De La Cruz is hitting .257 with 28 doubles, 16 home runs and 33 walks.

Marlins Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Jake Burger	0.5 (-189)	1.5 (+135)	0.5 (+380)	0.5 (+170)
Luis Arraez	1.5 (+180)	1.5 (+120)	0.5 (+1200)	0.5 (+255)
Bryan De La Cruz	0.5 (-238)	1.5 (+120)	0.5 (+475)	0.5 (+185)
Jorge Soler	0.5 (-227)	1.5 (+115)	0.5 (+320)	0.5 (+190)
Joey Wendle	0.5 (-149)	0.5 (-159)	-	0.5 (+320)

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