Padres vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Picks - August 23

Updated Aug. 23, 2023 4:05 p.m. ET

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Luis Arraez and the Miami Marlins take the field on Wednesday at PETCO Park against Seth Lugo, who will start for the San Diego Padres. First pitch is at 4:10 PM ET for the final game of a three-game series. The Padres are the favorite in this one, at -129, while the underdog Marlins have +110 odds to upset. San Diego is a 1.5-run favorite (at +165 odds). The total is 7.5 runs for this matchup (with -118 odds to hit the over and -101 odds on the under).

The Padres will start Lugo (4-6) against the Marlins and Sandy Alcantara (6-10).

Check out everything you need from a betting perspective on the Padres-Marlins game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks (odds via FOX Bet):

Padres vs. Marlins Game Information & Odds

• When: Wednesday, August 23, 2023 at 4:10 PM ET
• Where: PETCO Park in San Diego, California
• How to Watch on TV: MLB Network

Padres vs. Marlins Prediction

• Score Prediction: Padres 5, Marlins 4
• Total Prediction: Over 7.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Padres 55%, Marlins 45%

Padres vs. Marlins Betting Insights

• This season, the Padres have been favored 97 times and won 50, or 51.5%, of those games.
• San Diego has a record of 44-34, a 56.4% win rate, when favored by -129 or more by sportsbooks this season.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 56.3% chance of a victory for the Padres.
• The Marlins have been victorious in 29, or 43.3%, of the 67 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
• Miami has a win-loss record of 17-24 when favored by +110 or worse by sportsbooks this year.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Marlins have a 47.6% chance of pulling out a win.

Padres Recent Betting Performance

• The Padres were the moneyline favorite in each of their last 10 games, and they went 4-6 in those matchups.
• Over their last 10 matchups, the Padres and their opponents combined to hit the over three times (all 10 of the games had set totals).
• The Padres have gone 4-6-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Padres Recent Stats

Place your bets on Padres vs. Marlins now with FOX Bet!

Padres Player Insights

• Juan Soto leads the Padres with 24 home runs and 75 runs batted in.
• Soto's home runs put him 21st in the majors, and he ranks 28th in RBI.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. is batting .261 with 27 doubles, a triple, 20 home runs and 40 walks.
• Tatis ranks 43rd in home runs and 50th in RBI among all major league hitters this year.
• Ha-Seong Kim leads the Padres with a team-high batting average of .280.
• Kim has at least one base hit in two straight games. In his last five games he is hitting .250 with a double, two home runs, a walk and seven RBI.
• Manny Machado has hit 24 home runs to pace his team.

Padres Team Props

Learn more about this Padres vs. Marlins matchup on Fox Sports.

Marlins Recent Betting Performance

• In nine games as underdogs over the last 10 matchups, the Marlins have a record of 4-5.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Marlins and their opponents are 4-6-0 when it comes to hitting the over.
• The Marlins have a record of 6-4-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Marlins Recent Stats

Marlins Player Insights

• Arraez leads the team in batting average with a mark of .356.
• Arraez ranks 276th in homers and 78th in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Jorge Soler has been a reliable source of runs this year, leading the lineup with 33 home runs and 68 runs batted in.
• Among all MLB batters, Soler is fifth in home runs and 38th in RBI.
• Josh Bell is hitting .246 with 22 doubles, 18 home runs and 52 walks.
• Bryan De La Cruz is hitting .257 with 28 doubles, 16 home runs and 34 walks.

Marlins Team Props

FOX Bet has the props and odds you need to get your betting on for Padres vs Marlins!

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