Padres vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 24

Updated Jul. 24, 2023 9:00 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The San Diego Padres and Juan Soto will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates and Carlos Santana on Monday at 9:40 PM ET, in the first of a three-game series at PETCO Park. The favored Padres have -269 moneyline odds against the underdog Pirates, who are listed at +220. San Diego is the run-line favorite (-1.5). The game's total has been set at 8.5 runs.

The Padres will give the ball to Yu Darvish (7-6) against the Pirates and Quinn Priester (0-1).

Here's everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Padres-Pirates game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks (odds via FOX Bet):

Padres vs. Pirates Game Information & Odds

When: Monday, July 24, 2023 at 9:40 PM ET
Where: PETCO Park in San Diego, California
How to Watch on TV: SDPA

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Padres	-269	+220	8.5	-102	-118	-1.5	-131	+111

Padres vs. Pirates Prediction

Score Prediction: Padres 5, Pirates 4
Total Prediction: Over 8.5 runs
Win Probabilities: Padres 58%, Pirates 42%

Padres vs. Pirates Betting Insights

The Padres have been favorites in 73 games this season and won 38 (52.1%) of those contests.
San Diego has played as favorites of -269 or more twice this season and split those games.
The moneyline for this contest implies a 72.9% chance of a victory for the Padres.
The Pirates have won in 31, or 39.7%, of the 78 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
Pittsburgh has played as an underdog of +220 or more just one time this year and came away with a win in that game.
Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Pirates have a 31.2% chance of pulling out a win.

Padres Recent Betting Performance

The Padres were the moneyline favorite for seven of their last 10 games, and they went 4-3 in those matchups.
In their last 10 outings, the Padres and their opponents combined to go over the total six times (all 10 games had set totals).
The Padres' ATS record is 5-5-0 over their past 10 games.

Padres Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	5-5
Runs Per Game	5.3
HR	17
ERA	3.67
K/9	9

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Padres Player Insights

Soto has a team-best 19 home runs and 60 runs batted in.
Among all batters in MLB, Soto's home run total ranks him 23rd, and his RBI tally ranks him 26th.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is hitting .284 to lead his team.
Tatis ranks 32nd in home runs and 62nd in RBI among all hitters in baseball.
Manny Machado has launched a team-high 19 homers.
Xander Bogaerts is hitting .263 with 17 doubles, 11 home runs and 42 walks.
Bogaerts is riding a five-game hitting streak into this one. During his last five outings he is batting .400 with two doubles and a walk.

Padres Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Manny Machado	0.5 (-263)	1.5 (+110)	0.5 (+380)	0.5 (+115)
Jake Cronenworth	0.5 (-208)	1.5 (+150)	0.5 (+800)	0.5 (+185)
Ha-Seong Kim	0.5 (-233)	1.5 (+145)	0.5 (+750)	0.5 (+220)
Trent Grisham	0.5 (-115)	0.5 (-115)	0.5 (+650)	0.5 (+230)
Luis Campusano	0.5 (-204)	0.5 (-204)	0.5 (+700)	0.5 (+175)

Learn more about this Padres vs. Pirates matchup on Fox Sports.

Pirates Recent Betting Performance

In nine games over the last 10 matchups when set as underdogs by oddsmakers, the Pirates had a record of 3-6.
In their last 10 games with a total, the Pirates and their opponents are 7-3-0 when it comes to hitting the over.
The Pirates have a record of 3-7-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Pirates Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	3-7
Runs Per Game	3.4
HR	10
ERA	5.66
K/9	8.9

Pirates Player Insights

Bryan Reynolds is batting .259 with 21 doubles, three triples, 10 home runs and 31 walks, while getting on base at a rate of .324.
Reynolds' home run total places him 133rd in the majors, and he ranks 76th in RBI.
Reynolds takes a hitting streak of three games into this matchup. In his last five games he is batting .227 with a home run and three RBI.
Santana is hitting .231 with 24 doubles, nine home runs and 43 walks.
Santana is 150th overall in homers and 68th in RBI this year.
Andrew McCutchen leads the Pirates' lineup with a .267 batting average.
Jack Suwinski leads the Pirates in home runs (20) and runs batted in (51).

Pirates Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Tucupita Marcano	0.5 (-159)	0.5 (-159)	0.5 (+1000)	0.5 (+285)
Andrew McCutchen	0.5 (-175)	0.5 (-175)	0.5 (+550)	0.5 (+215)
Carlos Santana	0.5 (-149)	0.5 (-149)	0.5 (+600)	0.5 (+205)
Liover Peguero	0.5 (+100)	0.5 (+100)	0.5 (+1000)	0.5 (+350)
Jack Suwinski	0.5 (-115)	0.5 (-115)	0.5 (+450)	0.5 (+230)

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