Padres vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 26

Updated Jul. 26, 2023 4:00 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The San Diego Padres and Juan Soto will take the field against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Carlos Santana on Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET, at PETCO Park. Bookmakers list the Padres as -199 favorites on the moneyline, while giving the underdog Pirates +167 moneyline odds to win. San Diego is the favorite on the run line (-1.5). The total for the game is set at 8.5 runs.

The starting pitchers are Seth Lugo (4-4) for the San Diego Padres, and Johan Oviedo (3-11) for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Here is everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Padres-Pirates game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks (odds via FOX Bet):

Padres vs. Pirates Game Information & Odds

When: Wednesday, July 26, 2023 at 4:10 PM ET
Where: PETCO Park in San Diego, California
How to Watch on TV: MLB Network

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Padres	-199	+167	8.5	-108	-112	-1.5	-101	-119

Padres vs. Pirates Prediction

Score Prediction: Padres 5, Pirates 4
Total Prediction: Over 8.5 runs
Win Probabilities: Padres 57%, Pirates 43%

Padres vs. Pirates Betting Insights

The Padres have been favorites in 75 games this season and won 39 (52%) of those contests.
San Diego is 8-7 this season when entering a game favored by -199 or more on the moneyline.
Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Padres have a 66.6% chance to win.
The Pirates have been chosen as underdogs in 80 games this year and have walked away with the win 32 times (40%) in those games.
Pittsburgh has a win-loss record of 5-6 when favored by +167 or worse by bookmakers this year.
The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Pirates have a 37.5% chance of walking away with the win.

Padres Recent Betting Performance

The Padres went 4-3 across the seven games they were moneyline favorites in their last 10 matchups.
Over their last 10 matchups -- all had a set run total -- the Padres and their opponents combined to hit the over on the total five times.
The Padres' ATS record is 5-5-0 over their past 10 games.

Padres Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	5-5
Runs Per Game	5
HR	16
ERA	3.83
K/9	8.5

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Padres Player Insights

Soto is the Padres best power hitter, launching 20 long balls this season in addition to delivering 61 RBI, both team highs.
Including all MLB batters, Soto is 64th in batting average, second in on-base percentage, and 20th in slugging.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has a club-leading .280 batting average.
Tatis ranks 33rd in home runs in baseball, and 67th in RBI.
Manny Machado has a team-high 20 home runs.
Machado will look to build on his two-game hitting in this game. In his last five games he is batting .294 with two home runs, three walks and four RBI.
Ha-Seong Kim is hitting .272 with 15 doubles, 14 home runs and 45 walks.
Kim has recorded at least one hit in two straight games. In his last five games he is batting .421 with a double, three home runs, five walks and four RBI.

Padres Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Manny Machado	1.5 (+210)	1.5 (+105)	0.5 (+370)	0.5 (+135)
Xander Bogaerts	0.5 (-213)	1.5 (+165)	0.5 (+800)	0.5 (+185)
Ha-Seong Kim	0.5 (-222)	1.5 (+155)	0.5 (+750)	0.5 (+240)
Luis Campusano	0.5 (-227)	1.5 (+155)	0.5 (+700)	0.5 (+195)
Juan Soto	0.5 (-196)	1.5 (+140)	0.5 (+425)	0.5 (+165)

Learn more about this Padres vs. Pirates matchup on Fox Sports.

Pirates Recent Betting Performance

The Pirates have played as underdogs in nine of their past 10 games and won three of those contests.
In their last 10 games with a total, the Pirates and their opponents have failed to hit the over three times.
Over their last 10 games, the Pirates are 3-7-0 against the spread.

Pirates Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	3-7
Runs Per Game	3.5
HR	12
ERA	6.03
K/9	9.3

Pirates Player Insights

Santana has driven in a team-leading 52 runs batted in.
Santana is 116th in homers and 58th in RBI among all batters in MLB.
Bryan Reynolds has 21 doubles, three triples, 10 home runs and 32 walks while batting .253.
Reynolds ranks 136th in home runs and 79th in RBI among all hitters in the big leagues.
Andrew McCutchen paces the Pirates with a team-high batting average of .265.
Jack Suwinski leads the Pirates in home runs (21) and runs batted in (52).

Pirates Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Andrew McCutchen	0.5 (-238)	1.5 (+125)	0.5 (+500)	0.5 (+170)
Bryan Reynolds	0.5 (-238)	1.5 (+125)	0.5 (+550)	0.5 (+195)
Carlos Santana	0.5 (-185)	0.5 (-196)	0.5 (+550)	0.5 (+190)
Ji-Man Choi	0.5 (-159)	0.5 (-179)	0.5 (+550)	0.5 (+195)
Jack Suwinski	0.5 (-149)	0.5 (-149)	0.5 (+350)	0.5 (+205)

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