Phillies vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 21

Updated Jul. 21, 2023 7:05 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

Ranger Suarez and Gavin Williams are the projected starters when the Philadelphia Phillies and the Cleveland Guardians square off on Friday at Progressive Field, at 7:10 PM ET. The favored Phillies have -120 moneyline odds to win against the underdog Guardians, who are listed at +101. Philadelphia is favored on the run line (-1.5). The over/under is 8.5 runs for the contest.

The Philadelphia Phillies will hand the ball to Suarez (2-4, 3.84 ERA), who is looking for win No. 3 on the season, and the Guardians will counter with Williams (1-2, 3.94 ERA).

Here is everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Phillies-Guardians game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks (odds via FOX Bet):

Phillies vs. Guardians Game Information & Odds

When: Friday, July 21, 2023 at 7:10 PM ET
Where: Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio
How to Watch on TV: BSGL

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Phillies	-120	+101	8.5	-106	-113	-1.5	+140	-166

Phillies vs. Guardians Prediction

Score Prediction: Guardians 5, Phillies 4
Total Prediction: Under 8.5 runs
Win Probabilities: Phillies 51%, Guardians 49%

Phillies vs. Guardians Betting Insights

This season, the Phillies have been favored 60 times and won 36, or 60%, of those games.
Philadelphia has a record of 30-17, a 63.8% win rate, when favored by -120 or more by sportsbooks this season.
The moneyline for this contest implies a 54.5% chance of a victory for the Phillies.
The Guardians have been chosen as underdogs in 43 games this year and have walked away with the win 18 times (41.9%) in those games.
This season, Cleveland has come away with a win 14 times in 34 chances when named as an underdog of at least +101 or worse on the moneyline.
The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Guardians have a 49.8% chance of walking away with the win.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

The Phillies played as the moneyline favorite in six of their last 10 games, and they went 4-2 in those matchups.
Over their last 10 matchups (all 10 of them had set totals), the Phillies and their opponents combined to go over the run total six times.
The Phillies' ATS record is 2-8-0 over their past 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	5-5
Runs Per Game	4.2
HR	12
ERA	4.25
K/9	7.3

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Phillies Player Insights

Nicholas Castellanos has 26 doubles, a triple, 14 home runs and 24 walks while batting .290.
Among all hitters in MLB, Castellanos is 60th in homers and 28th in RBI.
Castellanos takes a hitting streak of three games into this matchup. In his last five games he is batting .176 with a home run and two RBI.
Kyle Schwarber has shown his power as he leads his team with 26 home runs and 59 runs batted in.
Schwarber ranks fifth in home runs and 21st in RBI among all MLB hitters this season.
Bryson Stott has put up a team-best batting average of .305.
Stott is on a five-game hitting streak entering this contest. During his last five outings he is hitting .400 with a double, a home run and two RBI.
Alec Bohm's 59 runs batted in are a team-high mark.

Phillies Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Alec Bohm	0.5 (-263)	1.5 (+130)	0.5 (+700)	0.5 (+155)
J.T. Realmuto	0.5 (-256)	1.5 (+115)	0.5 (+450)	0.5 (+155)
Trea Turner	1.5 (+175)	1.5 (-105)	0.5 (+500)	0.5 (+160)
Kyle Schwarber	0.5 (-189)	1.5 (+120)	0.5 (+310)	0.5 (+155)
Bryson Stott	0.5 (-294)	1.5 (+125)	0.5 (+850)	0.5 (+175)

Learn more about this Phillies vs. Guardians matchup on Fox Sports.

Guardians Recent Betting Performance

In four games as underdogs over the last 10 matchups, the Guardians have a record of 1-3.
In their last 10 games with a total, the Guardians and their opponents have failed to hit the over four times.
The Guardians have a record of 6-4-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Guardians Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	5-5
Runs Per Game	5.5
HR	15
ERA	4.08
K/9	9.2

Guardians Player Insights

Jose Ramirez has 25 doubles, four triples, 14 home runs and 44 walks while hitting .285.
Ramirez is 60th in home runs and 37th in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
Ramirez has collected a hit in three games in a row. In his last five games he is batting .286 with two doubles, two walks and an RBI.
Josh Naylor's 15 home runs, 75 runs batted in and .313 batting average are all tops in the lineup.
Naylor ranks 45th among all batters in MLB in home runs, and fourth in RBI.
Steven Kwan has 24 doubles, two triples, three home runs and 42 walks while batting .269.
Andres Gimenez is batting .245 with 14 doubles, four triples, eight home runs and 20 walks.

Guardians Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Steven Kwan	1.5 (+180)	1.5 (+130)	-	0.5 (+255)
Josh Bell	0.5 (-238)	1.5 (+145)	0.5 (+700)	0.5 (+185)
Amed Rosario	1.5 (+155)	1.5 (+100)	0.5 (+800)	0.5 (+185)
José Ramírez	0.5 (-278)	1.5 (+105)	0.5 (+475)	0.5 (+145)
Gabriel Arias	0.5 (-115)	0.5 (-115)	0.5 (+850)	0.5 (+255)

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