Phillies vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 23

Updated Jul. 23, 2023 1:00 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The Philadelphia Phillies and Bryson Stott head into the final of a three-game series against Josh Naylor and the Cleveland Guardians on Sunday at Progressive Field. The Guardians are +112 moneyline underdogs for this matchup with the Phillies (-132). Philadelphia is the favorite on the run line (-1.5 with +122 odds). A 9-run total has been set in this game.

The Phillies will start Aaron Nola (9-6) versus the Guardians and Xzavion Curry (3-0).

Here's everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Phillies-Guardians game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks (odds via FOX Bet):

Phillies vs. Guardians Game Information & Odds

When: Sunday, July 23, 2023 at 1:40 PM ET
Where: Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio
How to Watch on TV: BSGL

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Phillies	-132	+112	9	+100	-120	-1.5	+122	-144

Phillies vs. Guardians Prediction

Score Prediction: Guardians 5, Phillies 4
Total Prediction: Under 9 runs
Win Probabilities: Phillies 53%, Guardians 47%

Phillies vs. Guardians Betting Insights

The Phillies have entered the game as favorites 62 times this season and won 36, or 58.1%, of those games.
Philadelphia has a record of 25-14, a 64.1% win rate, when favored by -132 or more by oddsmakers this season.
The implied probability of a win from the Phillies, based on the moneyline, is 56.9%.
The Guardians have been underdogs in 45 games this season and have come away with the win 20 times (44.4%) in those contests.
This year, Cleveland has won nine of 26 games when listed as at least +112 or worse on the moneyline.
Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Guardians have a 47.2% chance of pulling out a win.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

The Phillies went 3-4 over the seven games they were favored on the moneyline in their last 10 matchups.
In their last 10 outings, the Phillies and their opponents combined to hit the over on the total six times (all 10 games had set totals).
The Phillies have a 2-8-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	4-6
Runs Per Game	4
HR	11
ERA	4.30
K/9	7.5

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Phillies Player Insights

Stott has put up a team-best batting average of .305.
Among all hitters in baseball, Stott's home run total ranks him 148th, and his RBI tally ranks him 134th.
Nicholas Castellanos is hitting .283 with 26 doubles, a triple, 14 home runs and 24 walks.
Castellanos ranks 65th in homers and 28th in RBI on the year.
Kyle Schwarber paces the Phillies in home runs (26) and runs batted in (60).
Alec Bohm is hitting .278 with 16 doubles, nine home runs and 23 walks.

Phillies Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Kyle Schwarber	0.5 (-222)	1.5 (+110)	0.5 (+270)	0.5 (+140)
Bryson Stott	1.5 (+190)	1.5 (+115)	0.5 (+850)	0.5 (+175)
Alec Bohm	0.5 (-278)	1.5 (+115)	0.5 (+550)	0.5 (+145)
Trea Turner	1.5 (+160)	1.5 (-120)	0.5 (+390)	0.5 (+150)
J.T. Realmuto	-	1.5 (+100)	0.5 (+380)	0.5 (+130)

Learn more about this Phillies vs. Guardians matchup on Fox Sports.

Guardians Recent Betting Performance

In six games as underdogs over the last 10 matchups, the Guardians have a record of 3-3.
In their last 10 games with a total, the Guardians and their opponents are 7-3-0 when it comes to hitting the over.
The Guardians are 6-4-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Guardians Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	5-5
Runs Per Game	5.3
HR	11
ERA	4.50
K/9	9.3

Guardians Player Insights

Jose Ramirez has 25 doubles, four triples, 14 home runs and 44 walks while hitting .292.
Among all batters in the big leagues, Ramirez is 65th in homers and 38th in RBI.
Ramirez takes a hitting streak of five games into this game. In his last five games he is hitting .476 with two doubles, a walk and two RBI.
Naylor's 15 home runs, 76 runs batted in and .315 batting average are all tops in the lineup.
Naylor is 52nd among all hitters in the big leagues in homers, and third in RBI.
Steven Kwan has 25 doubles, two triples, three home runs and 42 walks while batting .268.
Andres Gimenez is batting .241 with 14 doubles, four triples, eight home runs and 20 walks.

Guardians Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Josh Naylor	0.5 (-256)	1.5 (+110)	0.5 (+425)	0.5 (+120)
Josh Bell	0.5 (-208)	1.5 (+140)	0.5 (+475)	0.5 (+170)
Amed Rosario	1.5 (+165)	1.5 (+110)	0.5 (+850)	0.5 (+195)
José Ramírez	0.5 (-244)	1.5 (+105)	0.5 (+450)	0.5 (+135)
Steven Kwan	1.5 (+195)	1.5 (+125)	0.5 (+1100)	0.5 (+255)

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