Phillies vs. Marlins NL Wild Card Game 1 Prediction, Odds, Picks - October 3

Updated Oct. 3, 2023 8:07 p.m. ET

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The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Miami Marlins to start the NL Wild Card Series on Tuesday at 8:08 PM ET, live on ESPN from Citizens Bank Park. Oddsmakers list the Phillies as -153 moneyline favorites, while giving the underdog Marlins +130 moneyline odds. Philadelphia is the run-line favorite (-1.5). The total for the contest is set at 7.5 runs.

The starting pitchers are Zack Wheeler (13-6) for the Philadelphia Phillies, and Jesus Luzardo (10-9) for the Miami Marlins.

Here is everything you need from a betting perspective on the Phillies-Marlins game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks.

Phillies vs. Marlins Game Information & Odds

• When: Tuesday, October 3, 2023 at 8:08 PM ET
• Where: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• How to Watch on TV: ESPN

Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction

• Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Marlins 4
• Total Prediction: Over 7.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Phillies 56%, Marlins 44%

Phillies vs. Marlins Betting Insights

• The Phillies have been favorites in 111 games this season and won 66 (59.5%) of those contests.
• Philadelphia has a record of 31-19, a 62% win rate, when favored by -153 or more by oddsmakers this season.
• The Phillies have a 60.5% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• The Marlins have been chosen as underdogs in 86 games this year and have walked away with the win 40 times (46.5%) in those games.
• Miami has a win-loss record of 12-19 when favored by +130 or worse by sportsbooks this year.
• The Marlins have an implied victory probability of 43.5% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

• The Phillies played as the moneyline favorite in eight of their last 10 games, and went 6-2 in those matchups.
• Over their last 10 outings, the Phillies and their opponents combined to go over the run total five times (all 10 games had set totals).
• The Phillies have a 3-7-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Phillies Player Insights

• Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies with 47 homers on the year. He's also hitting .197 with 104 RBI.
• Of all hitters in MLB, Schwarber ranks second in home runs and 11th in RBI.
• Trea Turner is hitting .266 with 35 doubles, five triples, 26 home runs and 45 walks.
• Turner ranks 38th in home runs in baseball, and 67th in RBI.
• Turner enters this matchup looking for his fifth game in a row with a hit. In his last five games he is batting .316 with three doubles and an RBI.
• Alec Bohm is batting .274 with 31 doubles, 20 home runs and 42 walks.
• Bryce Harper is batting .293 to pace his team.

Phillies Team Props

Learn more about this Phillies vs. Marlins matchup on Fox Sports.

Marlins Recent Betting Performance

• The Marlins have played as underdogs in five of their past 10 games and won three of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Marlins and their opponents are 5-4-1 when it comes to hitting the over.
• The Marlins have a record of 4-6-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Marlins Recent Stats

Marlins Player Insights

• Luis Arraez paces the Marlins with a team-leading batting average of .354.
• Arraez is 219th in home runs and 90th in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Jorge Soler's 36 home runs lead his team.
• Soler ranks 12th overall in home runs and 70th in RBI this season.
• Jake Burger leads the Marlins with 80 runs batted in.
• Josh Bell is hitting .249 with 28 doubles, 22 home runs and 63 walks.

Marlins Team Props

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