Phillies vs. Mets NLDS Game 1 Prediction, Odds, Picks - October 5

Updated Oct. 5, 2024 4:01 p.m. ET

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The NLDS begins on Saturday when the Philadelphia Phillies play host to the New York Mets. Action begins at 4:08 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park, and can be watched on FOX. The Mets are +153 moneyline underdogs for this matchup against the favorite Phillies (-183). Philadelphia is the run-line favorite (-1.5). The over/under is 7 runs for the contest.

Check out everything you need from a betting perspective on the Phillies-Mets game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

Mets vs. Phillies: Will Mets' magic continue vs. Phillies? | NLDS Game 1 | MLB on FOX

The "MLB on FOX" crew preview the New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of the NLDS.

Phillies vs. Mets Game Information & Odds

• When: Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 4:08 p.m. ET
• Where: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• How to Watch on TV: FOX

Phillies vs. Mets Prediction

• Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Mets 4
• Total Prediction: Over 7 runs
• Win Probabilities: Phillies 53%, Mets 47%

Phillies vs. Mets Betting Insights

• The Phillies have been favorites in 129 games this season and won 80 (62%) of those contests.
• Philadelphia has a record of 34-15, a 69.4% win rate, when favored by -183 or more by oddsmakers this season.
• The implied probability of a win from the Phillies, based on the moneyline, is 64.7%.
• The Mets have won in 30, or 45.5%, of the 66 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
• This season, New York has been victorious two times in seven chances when named as an underdog of at least +153 or worse on the moneyline.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Mets have a 39.5% chance of pulling out a win.

FINAL

NYM 6 · PHI 2

MLB

RUN LINE

TO WIN

TOTAL

New York Mets

NYM

+1.5

+154

O 7

Philadelphia Phillies

PHI

-1.5

-183

U 7

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

• The Phillies played as the moneyline favorite in eight of their last 10 games, and finished 4-4 in those matchups.
• In their last 10 matchups -- all had a set run total -- the Phillies and their opponents combined to go over the total eight times.
• The Phillies have gone 4-6-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Phillies Player Insights

• Bryce Harper is stellar at both finding his way aboard and doing damage when he's at the plate. Harper leads the Phillies this season with a .373 OBP, .525 slugging percentage, and 157 base hits.
• Harper's home runs rank him 20th in the majors, and he ranks 31st in RBI.
• Kyle Schwarber has shown his power as he leads his team with 38 home runs and 104 RBI.
• Schwarber is eighth in home runs and 10th in RBI in the major leagues.
• Alec Bohm has 44 doubles, two triples, 15 home runs and 40 walks while batting .280.
• Trea Turner's .295 batting average paces his team.
• Turner is riding a two-game hitting streak into this one. During his last five outings he is batting .250 with a double, two home runs and three RBI.

Phillies Team Props

Learn more about this Phillies vs. Mets matchup on Fox Sports.

Mets Recent Betting Performance

• The Mets have played as underdogs in seven of their past 10 games and won four of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Mets and their opponents are 4-6-0 when it comes to hitting the over.
• The Mets have five wins against the spread in their last 10 chances.

Mets Recent Stats

Mets Player Insights

• The Mets are led in runs batted in by Francisco Lindor with a mark of 91, he also leads the team in hitting, posting an average of .273.
• Among all hitters in the big leagues, Lindor is 14th in home runs and 25th in RBI.
• Pete Alonso has put his power on display as he paces his team with 34 home runs.
• Alonso is currently 12th in home runs and 29th in RBI in the major leagues.
• Brandon Nimmo is hitting .224 with 25 doubles, three triples, 23 home runs and 77 walks.
• Jesse Winker has 23 doubles, 14 home runs and 63 walks while batting .253.

Mets Team Props

Mets vs. Phillies: Will Mets' magic continue vs. Phillies? | NLDS Game 1 | MLB on FOX

The "MLB on FOX" crew preview the New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of the NLDS.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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