Phillies vs. Mets NLDS Game 1 Prediction, Odds, Picks - October 5

Updated Oct. 4, 2024 6:01 a.m. ET

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The NLDS kicks off Saturday at 4:08 p.m. ET when the Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets live from Citizens Bank Park, and airing on FOX. The Phillies are favored in this one, at -190, while the underdog Mets have +159 odds to upset. Philadelphia (-1.5) is the favorite on the run line. The total is 7.5 runs for this matchup (with +101 odds to hit the over and -122 odds to go under).

Take a look at everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Phillies-Mets game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

Francisco Lindor smashes his SECOND home run of the game to extend Mets' lead over Padres

Francisco Lindor smashed his second home run of the game to extend the New York Mets' lead over the San Diego Padres.

Phillies vs. Mets Game Information & Odds

• When: Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 4:08 p.m. ET
• Where: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• How to Watch on TV: FOX

Phillies vs. Mets Prediction

• Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Mets 4
• Total Prediction: Over 7.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Phillies 53%, Mets 47%

Phillies vs. Mets Betting Insights

• The Phillies have entered the game as favorites 129 times this season and won 80, or 62%, of those games.
• Philadelphia is 32-13 this season when entering a game favored by -190 or more on the moneyline.
• The bookmakers' moneyline implies a 65.5% chance of a victory for the Phillies.
• The Mets have come away with 30 wins in the 66 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
• New York has a mark of 2-4 in contests where oddsmakers favor it by +159 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Mets have an implied victory probability of 38.6% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

• The Phillies have a 4-4 record over the eight games they were favored on the moneyline in their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 matchups -- all had a set run total -- the Phillies and their opponents combined to hit the over on the total eight times.
• The Phillies have gone 4-6-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Phillies Player Insights

• Bryce Harper is outstanding at both finding his way aboard and doing damage when he's at the plate. Harper leads the Phillies this season with a .373 OBP, .525 slugging percentage, and 157 base hits.
• Harper is 20th in homers and 31st in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Kyle Schwarber has hit 38 home runs with 104 RBI. Both are team-highs.
• Schwarber is eighth in homers and 10th in RBI on the season.
• Alec Bohm has 44 doubles, two triples, 15 home runs and 40 walks while hitting .280.
• Trea Turner has a club-best .295 batting average.
• Turner brings a two-game streak with at least one hit into this one. During his last five outings he is batting .250 with a double, two home runs and three RBI.

Phillies Team Props

Mets Recent Betting Performance

• The Mets have played as underdogs in seven of their past 10 games and won four of those contests.
• When it comes to hitting the over, the Mets and their opponents are 4-6-0 in their last 10 games with a total.
• The Mets have won five of their last 10 games against the spread.

Mets Recent Stats

Mets Player Insights

• Francisco Lindor has recorded a team-high batting average of .273 and leads the Mets in runs batted in with a mark of 91.
• Among all batters in the big leagues, Lindor's home run total ranks 14th and his RBI tally ranks 25th.
• Pete Alonso's 34 home runs pace his team.
• Alonso ranks 12th overall in home runs and 29th in RBI this season.
• Brandon Nimmo is batting .224 with 25 doubles, three triples, 23 home runs and 77 walks.
• Jesse Winker is batting .253 with 23 doubles, 14 home runs and 63 walks.

Mets Team Props

Kyle Schwarber BELTS a leadoff home run in Phillies' matchup against Mets

Kyle Schwarber blasted a leadoff home run in the Philadelphia Phillies' matchup against the New York Mets.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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