Phillies vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 21

Updated Sep. 21, 2023 7:07 p.m. ET

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The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets square off on Thursday at 7:15 PM ET. Bryce Harper and Brandon Nimmo have been on a tear as of late for their respective squads. The favored Phillies have -163 moneyline odds against the underdog Mets, who are listed at +139. Philadelphia is favored on the run line (-1.5). The over/under is 8.5 runs for the matchup.

The matchup on the mound for this contest is set with the Philadelphia Phillies looking to Ranger Suarez (3-6), and David Peterson (3-8) taking the ball for the New York Mets.

Here is everything you need from a betting perspective on the Phillies-Mets game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks.

Phillies vs. Mets Game Information & Odds

• When: Thursday, September 21, 2023 at 7:15 PM ET
• Where: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• How to Watch on TV: FOX

Phillies vs. Mets Prediction

• Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Mets 4
• Total Prediction: Under 8.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Phillies 56%, Mets 44%

Phillies vs. Mets Betting Insights

• The Phillies have been favorites in 103 games this season and won 60 (58.3%) of those contests.
• Philadelphia has a record of 23-15, a 60.5% win rate, when favored by -163 or more by oddsmakers this season.
• The bookmakers' moneyline implies a 62% chance of a victory for the Phillies.
• The Mets have come away with 21 wins in the 63 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
• This year, New York has won two of 14 games when listed as at least +139 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Mets have an implied victory probability of 41.8% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

• The Phillies went 2-1 over the three games they were favored on the moneyline in their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 matchups, the Phillies and their opponents combined to hit the over seven times (all 10 of the games had set totals).
• The Phillies' ATS record is 5-5-0 over their past 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Phillies Player Insights

• Kyle Schwarber has gone yard 45 times in the 2023 campaign while driving in 99 runs, both totals that lead the Phillies.
• Among all hitters in MLB, Schwarber's home run total ranks him second, and his RBI tally ranks him 10th.
• Trea Turner is hitting .267 with 32 doubles, five triples, 26 home runs and 42 walks.
• Turner ranks 34th in homers in baseball, and 60th in RBI.
• Bryson Stott is hitting .283 with 31 doubles, two triples, 15 home runs and 37 walks.
• Alec Bohm is hitting .279 with 30 doubles, 17 home runs and 42 walks.

Learn more about this Phillies vs. Mets matchup on Fox Sports.

Mets Recent Betting Performance

• The Mets have played as underdogs in four of their past 10 games and won three of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Mets and their opponents are 4-4-2 when it comes to hitting the over.
• The Mets have a record of 8-2-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Mets Recent Stats

Mets Player Insights

• Pete Alonso has managed a team-high 45 home runs and has driven in 114 runs.
• Alonso's home run total puts him second in the big leagues, and he ranks second in RBI.
• Francisco Lindor has 33 doubles, two triples, 26 home runs and 61 walks while hitting .250.
• Among all MLB hitters, Lindor ranks 34th in homers and 34th in RBI.
• Nimmo leads the Mets with a team-high batting average of .272.
• Jeff McNeil is batting .267 with 24 doubles, three triples, 10 home runs and 38 walks.

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