Phillies vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 23

Updated Sep. 23, 2023 4:12 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

Kyle Schwarber and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Brandon Nimmo and the New York Mets on Saturday at 4:05 PM ET. The Mets have been listed as +156 moneyline underdogs in this matchup against the Phillies (-185). Philadelphia is the favorite on the run line (-1.5 with +116 odds). The over/under for the matchup has been set at 7.5 runs.

The Philadelphia Phillies will give the start to Zack Wheeler (12-6, 3.58 ERA), who is looking for win No. 13 on the season, and the Mets will counter with Jose Quintana (3-5, 3.02 ERA).

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Phillies-Mets game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks.

Phillies vs. Mets Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, September 23, 2023 at 4:05 PM ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
How to Watch on TV: MLB Network

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Phillies	-185	+156	7.5	-101	-119	-1.5	+116	-138

Phillies vs. Mets Prediction

Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Mets 4
Total Prediction: Over 7.5 runs
Win Probabilities: Phillies 56%, Mets 44%

Phillies vs. Mets Betting Insights

The Phillies have won 62, or 59%, of the 105 games they've played as favorites this season.
Philadelphia has entered 27 games this season favored by -185 or more and is 18-9 in those contests.
The oddsmakers' moneyline implies a 64.9% chance of a victory for the Phillies.
The Mets have been chosen as underdogs in 65 games this year and have walked away with the win 21 times (32.3%) in those games.
This season, New York has come away with a win one times in 10 chances when named as an underdog of at least +156 or worse on the moneyline.
Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Mets have a 39.1% chance of pulling out a win.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

The Phillies went 4-1 across the five games they were favored on the moneyline in their last 10 matchups.
In their last 10 outings, the Phillies and their opponents combined to hit the over six times (all 10 of the games had set totals).
The Phillies have a 4-6-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	6-4
Runs Per Game	4.9
HR	18
ERA	4.15
K/9	8.1

Phillies Player Insights

Schwarber has homered 45 times this season, the highest mark on the Phillies, while hitting .198 with 100 RBI.
Among all MLB batters, Schwarber is 133rd in batting average, 43rd in on-base percentage, and 39th in slugging.
Trea Turner has 32 doubles, five triples, 26 home runs and 45 walks while batting .265.
Turner ranks 35th in home runs in the majors, and 61st in RBI.
Alec Bohm has 30 doubles, 18 home runs and 42 walks while hitting .280.
Bohm will look to build on his three-game hitting in this matchup. In his last five games he is hitting .238 with a home run, a walk and three RBI.
Bryson Stott is hitting .281 with 31 doubles, two triples, 15 home runs and 38 walks.

Learn more about this Phillies vs. Mets matchup on Fox Sports.

Mets Recent Betting Performance

In six games as underdogs over the last 10 matchups, the Mets have a record of 3-3.
In their last 10 games with a total, the Mets and their opponents are 4-3-3 when it comes to hitting the over.
The Mets have a record of 9-1-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Mets Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	5-5
Runs Per Game	5.2
HR	12
ERA	2.76
K/9	8.6

Mets Player Insights

Francisco Lindor has 33 doubles, two triples, 27 home runs and 61 walks while hitting .251.
Among all batters in the majors, Lindor's home run total ranks 31st and his RBI tally is 35th.
Lindor has collected a hit in seven straight games. During his last 10 outings he is hitting .263 with a double, a home run, six walks and two RBI.
Pete Alonso been a consistent power bat this season, as he leads his team with 45 home runs and 115 runs batted in.
Alonso is second in home runs and second in RBI among all major league hitters this season.
Nimmo has racked up a team-best batting average of .272.
Jeff McNeil is batting .271 with 25 doubles, four triples, 10 home runs and 39 walks.