Phillies vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 29

Phillies vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 29

Updated Sep. 29, 2023 11:00 a.m. ET
Data Skrive

Nicholas Castellanos and the Philadelphia Phillies take the field on Friday at Citi Field against Tylor Megill, who is starting for the New York Mets. First pitch will be at 7:10 PM ET. The favored Phillies have -124 moneyline odds against the underdog Mets, who are listed at +105. Philadelphia is the run-line favorite (-1.5). The matchup's total is set at 8.5 runs.

The Philadelphia Phillies will give the start to Taijuan Walker (15-5, 4.40 ERA), who is looking for win No. 16 on the season, and the Mets will counter with Megill (8-8, 4.92 ERA).

Take a look at everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Phillies-Mets game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks.

Phillies vs. Mets Game Information & Odds

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  • When: Friday, September 29, 2023 at 7:10 PM ET
  • Where: Citi Field in Queens, New York
  • How to Watch on TV: SNY
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Run Line Favorite Run Line Odds Underdog Run Line Odds
Phillies -124 +105 8.5 -100 -120 -1.5 +139 -165

Phillies vs. Mets Prediction

  • Score Prediction: Mets 6, Phillies 5
  • Total Prediction: Over 8.5 runs
  • Win Probabilities: Phillies 50%, Mets 50%

Phillies vs. Mets Betting Insights

  • The Phillies have been favorites in 110 games this season and won 66 (60%) of those contests.
  • Philadelphia is 56-30 this season when entering a game favored by -124 or more on the moneyline.
  • The implied probability of a win from the Phillies, based on the moneyline, is 55.4%.
  • The Mets have been underdogs in 68 games this season and have come away with the win 22 times (32.4%) in those contests.
  • New York has a mark of 10-37 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +105 or worse on the moneyline.
  • Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Mets have a 48.8% chance of pulling out a win.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

  • The Phillies have a 6-1 record across the seven games they were a moneyline favorite in their last 10 matchups.
  • Over their last 10 matchups -- all had a set run total -- the Phillies and their opponents combined to hit the over on the total five times.
  • The Phillies' record against the spread is 4-6-0 over their past 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Stat Avg/Total
Record 8-2
Runs Per Game 5
HR 19
ERA 3.72
K/9 10

Phillies Player Insights

  • Trea Turner is batting .266 with 35 doubles, five triples, 26 home runs and 45 walks.
  • Including all MLB hitters, Turner ranks 55th in batting average, 94th in on-base percentage, and 55th in slugging.
  • Turner brings a hitting streak of three games into this game. During his last five outings he is batting .250 with three doubles, a walk and an RBI.
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit 46 home runs to pace his team.
  • Schwarber is second in home runs and 14th in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
  • Alec Bohm is hitting .275 with 31 doubles, 19 home runs and 42 walks.
  • Bryce Harper is batting .295 to lead his team.

Phillies Team Props

Hits O/U Total Bases O/U HR O/U RBI O/U
Bryce Harper 0.5 (-263) 1.5 (+110) 0.5 (+370) 0.5 (+145)
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 (-238) 1.5 (+115) 0.5 (+390) 0.5 (+125)
Bryson Stott 0.5 (-278) 1.5 (+120) 0.5 (+900) 0.5 (+160)
Trea Turner 1.5 (+170) 1.5 (-110) 0.5 (+360) 0.5 (+150)
Alec Bohm 1.5 (+185) 1.5 (+115) 0.5 (+650) 0.5 (+120)

Learn more about this Phillies vs. Mets matchup on Fox Sports.

Mets Recent Betting Performance

  • The Mets have played as underdogs in eight of their past 10 games and won three of those contests.
  • In their last 10 games with a total, the Mets and their opponents are 5-4-1 when it comes to hitting the over.
  • The Mets have seven wins against the spread in their last 10 chances.

Mets Recent Stats

Stat Avg/Total
Record 4-6
Runs Per Game 4.9
HR 14
ERA 3.76
K/9 9.1

Mets Player Insights

  • Francisco Lindor is hitting .254 with 33 doubles, two triples, 30 home runs and 64 walks, while getting on base at a rate of .334.
  • In all of MLB, Lindor ranks 24th in homers and 22nd in RBI.
  • Pete Alonso has hit 46 home runs with 117 runs batted in, leading the team in both categories.
  • Alonso ranks second in homers and second in RBI among all MLB hitters this year.
  • Brandon Nimmo paces the Mets' lineup with a .273 batting average.
  • Francisco Alvarez is hitting .206 with 12 doubles, 23 home runs and 33 walks.

Mets Team Props

Hits O/U Total Bases O/U HR O/U RBI O/U
Francisco Lindor 0.5 (-263) 1.5 (+100) 0.5 (+350) 0.5 (+140)
Brandon Nimmo 1.5 (+200) 1.5 (+110) 0.5 (+500) 0.5 (+185)
Pete Alonso 0.5 (-189) 1.5 (+135) 0.5 (+360) 0.5 (+150)
Rafael Ortega 0.5 (-185) 0.5 (-185) 0.5 (+800) 0.5 (+265)
Tim Locastro 0.5 (-120) 0.5 (-120) 0.5 (+1200) 0.5 (+320)
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