Phillies vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 16

Updated Jul. 16, 2023 12:12 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

Bryson Stott and the Philadelphia Phillies take the field on Sunday at Citizens Bank Park against Seth Lugo, who is starting for the San Diego Padres. First pitch is at 1:35 PM ET for the final game of a five-game series. The favored Phillies have -150 moneyline odds to win against the underdog Padres, who are listed at +128. Philadelphia is the favorite on the run line (-1.5). The contest's total has been set at 8.5 runs.

The starting pitchers are Zack Wheeler (7-4) for the Philadelphia Phillies, and Lugo (3-4) for the San Diego Padres.

Here is everything you need from a betting perspective on the Phillies-Padres game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks (odds via FOX Bet):

Phillies vs. Padres Game Information & Odds

When: Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 1:35 PM ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
How to Watch on TV: MLB Network

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Phillies	-150	+128	8.5	-121	+101	-1.5	+135	-158

Phillies vs. Padres Prediction

Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Padres 4
Total Prediction: Over 8.5 runs
Win Probabilities:

Phillies vs. Padres Betting Insights

This season, the Phillies have won 34 out of the 56 games, or 60.7%, in which they've been favored.
Philadelphia is 15-11 this season when entering a game favored by -150 or more on the moneyline.
The implied probability of a win from the Phillies, based on the moneyline, is 60%.
The Padres have been chosen as underdogs in 25 games this year and have walked away with the win nine times (36%) in those games.
San Diego has a mark of 1-4 in contests where sportsbooks favor it by +128 or worse on the moneyline.
The Padres have an implied victory probability of 43.9% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

The Phillies went 2-1 over the three games they were favored on the moneyline in their last 10 matchups.
In their last 10 matchups (all had set totals), the Phillies combined with their opponents to go over the total six times.
The Phillies' ATS record is 5-5-0 over their past 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	6-4
Runs Per Game	4.6
HR	13
ERA	4.00
K/9	8.3

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Phillies Player Insights

Nicholas Castellanos is hitting .292 with 26 doubles, a triple, 13 home runs and 24 walks.
Of all batters in the majors, Castellanos is 62nd in home runs and 25th in RBI.
Kyle Schwarber has put his power on display as he paces his team with 24 home runs.
Schwarber is sixth in homers in the majors, and 28th in RBI.
Schwarber has three straight games with at least one hit. In his last five games he is hitting .190 with a double, two home runs, two walks and six RBI.
Stott leads the Phillies with a team-high batting average of .302.
Alec Bohm has totaled 58 runs batted in to lead his team.

Phillies Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Alec Bohm	0.5 (-278)	1.5 (+125)	0.5 (+650)	0.5 (+145)
Nicholas Castellanos	1.5 (+185)	1.5 (+105)	0.5 (+380)	0.5 (+125)
Kyle Schwarber	0.5 (-189)	1.5 (+115)	0.5 (+240)	0.5 (+140)
J.T. Realmuto	1.5 (+200)	1.5 (+115)	0.5 (+425)	0.5 (+125)
Bryce Harper	1.5 (+215)	1.5 (+110)	0.5 (+370)	0.5 (+135)

Learn more about this Phillies vs. Padres matchup on Fox Sports.

Padres Recent Betting Performance

Over the past 10 games, the Padres have been underdogs twice and lost both contests.
In their last 10 games with a total, the Padres and their opponents have failed to hit the over four times.
Over their last 10 games, the Padres are 7-3-0 against the spread.

Padres Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	6-4
Runs Per Game	5.6
HR	16
ERA	3.99
K/9	10.4

Padres Player Insights

Juan Soto is batting .266 with 22 doubles, 16 home runs and 86 walks, while getting on base at a rate of .420.
Soto's home run total places him 32nd in MLB, and he is 44th in RBI.
Fernando Tatis Jr.'s 17 home runs and .283 batting average are both lineup-highs.
Tatis ranks 24th in homers and 55th in RBI among all hitters in the big leagues.
Manny Machado has been solid source of run production for the Padres with 17 long balls and 51 runs batted in.
Xander Bogaerts is batting .258 with 15 doubles, 10 home runs and 39 walks.

Padres Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Manny Machado	0.5 (-238)	1.5 (+125)	0.5 (+370)	0.5 (+150)
Juan Soto	0.5 (-222)	1.5 (+115)	0.5 (+310)	0.5 (+165)
Gary Sánchez	0.5 (-135)	0.5 (-135)	0.5 (+500)	0.5 (+215)
Rougned Odor	0.5 (-164)	0.5 (-164)	0.5 (+475)	0.5 (+190)
Matt Carpenter	0.5 (-125)	0.5 (-125)	0.5 (+390)	0.5 (+215)

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