Phillies vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 28

Updated Jul. 28, 2023 7:00 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

Kyle Schwarber and the Philadelphia Phillies will play Bryan Reynolds and the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday at PNC Park, at 7:05 PM ET. The favored Phillies have -167 moneyline odds against the underdog Pirates, who are listed at +142. Philadelphia is the run-line favorite (-1.5). The total for the game is set at 8.5 runs.

The Philadelphia Phillies will hand the ball to Zack Wheeler (7-5, 3.80 ERA), who is looking for win No. 8 on the season, and the Pirates will counter with Mitch Keller (9-6, 4.01 ERA).

Here is everything you need from a betting perspective on the Phillies-Pirates game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks (odds via FOX Bet):

Phillies vs. Pirates Game Information & Odds

When: Friday, July 28, 2023 at 7:05 PM ET
Where: PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
How to Watch on TV: SportsNet PT

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Phillies	-167	+142	8.5	-110	-110	-1.5	+102	-122

Phillies vs. Pirates Prediction

Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Pirates 4
Total Prediction: Over 8.5 runs
Win Probabilities: Phillies 51%, Pirates 49%

Phillies vs. Pirates Betting Insights

The Phillies have entered the game as favorites 66 times this season and won 39, or 59.1%, of those games.
Philadelphia has a record of 13-7 in games when sportsbooks favor them by at least -167 on the moneyline.
The Phillies have a 62.5% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
The Pirates have come away with 33 wins in the 81 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
Pittsburgh has a mark of 11-14 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +142 or worse on the moneyline.
The Pirates have an implied victory probability of 41.3% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

The Phillies were the moneyline favorite for each of their last 10 games, and finished 5-5 in those matchups.
Over their last 10 outings, the Phillies and their opponents combined to hit the over on the total four times (all 10 games had set totals).
The Phillies' record against the spread is 2-8-0 over their past 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	5-5
Runs Per Game	3.9
HR	8
ERA	3.42
K/9	8.2

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Phillies Player Insights

Bryson Stott has racked up a team-best batting average of .300.
Among all MLB hitters, Stott ranks ninth in batting average, 51st in on-base percentage, and 73rd in slugging.
Stott carries a two-game hitting streak into this matchup. During his last five outings he is batting .125 with a double, four walks and an RBI.
Schwarber has hit 26 home runs with 62 runs batted in. Both are team-highs.
Schwarber is sixth in homers and 22nd in RBI among all major league hitters this year.
Nicholas Castellanos is batting .280 with 26 doubles, a triple, 14 home runs and 25 walks.
Alec Bohm has totaled 62 runs batted in to lead his team.
Bohm has recorded at least one hit in four straight games. During his last five outings he is hitting .294 with a double and three RBI.

Phillies Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Kyle Schwarber	0.5 (-196)	1.5 (+125)	0.5 (+350)	0.5 (+165)
Trea Turner	1.5 (+145)	1.5 (-115)	0.5 (+650)	0.5 (+185)
J.T. Realmuto	1.5 (+195)	1.5 (+105)	0.5 (+500)	0.5 (+150)
Bryson Stott	1.5 (+195)	1.5 (+125)	0.5 (+1000)	0.5 (+170)
Alec Bohm	1.5 (+205)	1.5 (+125)	0.5 (+950)	0.5 (+165)

Learn more about this Phillies vs. Pirates matchup on Fox Sports.

Pirates Recent Betting Performance

The Pirates have played as underdogs in nine of their past 10 games and won four of those contests.
In their last 10 games with a total, the Pirates and their opponents have combined to hit the over seven times.
The Pirates have a record of 4-6-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Pirates Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	4-6
Runs Per Game	3.7
HR	14
ERA	6.03
K/9	8.6

Pirates Player Insights

Reynolds is batting .256 with 21 doubles, three triples, 11 home runs and 32 walks, while getting on base at a rate of .321.
Among all batters in the majors, Reynolds ranks 118th in home runs and 76th in RBI.
Andrew McCutchen has a club-high .265 batting average.
McCutchen is currently 136th in homers and 205th in RBI in the major leagues.
Jack Suwinski has been solid source of run production for the Pirates with 21 long balls and 52 runs batted in.
Connor Joe has 19 doubles, three triples, seven home runs and 29 walks while hitting .236.

Pirates Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Bryan Reynolds	0.5 (-263)	1.5 (+125)	0.5 (+550)	0.5 (+215)
Ji-Man Choi	0.5 (-185)	0.5 (-185)	0.5 (+600)	0.5 (+200)
Liover Peguero	0.5 (-115)	0.5 (-115)	0.5 (+1000)	0.5 (+330)
Andrew McCutchen	0.5 (-189)	0.5 (-189)	0.5 (+600)	0.5 (+210)
Jack Suwinski	0.5 (-159)	0.5 (-159)	0.5 (+360)	0.5 (+210)

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