Phillies vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 26

Updated Sep. 26, 2023 6:11 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

Nicholas Castellanos and Ke'Bryan Hayes will look to continue their recent offensive production when the Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates meet at Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday, at 6:40 PM ET. Oddsmakers list the Phillies as -181 favorites on the moneyline, while giving the underdog Pirates +154 moneyline odds. Philadelphia is a 1.5-run favorite (at +115 odds). The total for the contest has been set at 7.5 runs.

The scheduled starters are Aaron Nola (12-9) for the Philadelphia Phillies, and Mitch Keller (13-9) for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Phillies-Pirates game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks.

Phillies vs. Pirates Game Information & Odds

When: Tuesday, September 26, 2023 at 6:40 PM ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
How to Watch on TV: NBCS-PH

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Phillies	-181	+154	7.5	-104	-116	-1.5	+115	-138

Phillies vs. Pirates Prediction

Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Pirates 4
Total Prediction: Over 7.5 runs
Win Probabilities: Phillies 57%, Pirates 43%

Phillies vs. Pirates Betting Insights

The Phillies have entered the game as favorites 107 times this season and won 64, or 59.8%, of those games.
Philadelphia is 21-11 this season when entering a game favored by -181 or more on the moneyline.
Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Phillies have a 64.4% chance to win.
The Pirates have won in 55, or 44%, of the 125 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
This season, Pittsburgh has come away with a win 16 times in 31 chances when named as an underdog of at least +154 or longer on the moneyline.
The Pirates have an implied victory probability of 39.4% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

The Phillies have a 6-1 record across the seven games they were favored on the moneyline in their last 10 matchups.
In their last 10 matchups, the Phillies and their opponents combined to go over the run total six times (all 10 games had set totals).
The Phillies have a 5-5-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	8-2
Runs Per Game	5.4
HR	17
ERA	3.70
K/9	8.5

Phillies Player Insights

Trea Turner is batting .263 with 33 doubles, five triples, 26 home runs and 45 walks.
Among all batters in MLB, Turner ranks 37th in homers and 62nd in RBI.
Kyle Schwarber has hit 45 home runs to lead his team.
Schwarber is second in home runs and 12th in RBI on the season.
Alec Bohm is batting .279 with 31 doubles, 19 home runs and 42 walks.
Castellanos has been productive as he leads his team with 106 runs batted in.
Castellanos takes a five-game streak with at least one hit into this one. In his last five games he is batting .444 with a double, a triple, four home runs, a walk and 10 RBI.

Learn more about this Phillies vs. Pirates matchup on Fox Sports.

Pirates Recent Betting Performance

The Pirates have played as underdogs in nine of their past 10 games and have gone 5-4 in those contests.
In their last 10 games with a total, the Pirates and their opponents have combined to hit the over six times.
The Pirates are 6-4-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Pirates Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	6-4
Runs Per Game	5.7
HR	15
ERA	6.44
K/9	8.3

Pirates Player Insights

Bryan Reynolds has plated a team-high 82 runs batted in.
Among all hitters in the majors, Reynolds' home run total ranks 58th and his RBI tally ranks 44th.
Hayes has a club-leading .276 batting average.
Hayes is 141st in home runs and 116th in RBI among all major league hitters this season.
Jack Suwinski has 26 home runs, tops in the clubhouse.
Connor Joe has 28 doubles, four triples, 11 home runs and 47 walks while hitting .236.