Phillies vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 28

Updated Sep. 28, 2023 6:00 p.m. ET

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Zack Wheeler will take the mound first for the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday against Ke'Bryan Hayes and the Pittsburgh Pirates. First pitch is at 6:05 PM ET for this final game in a three-game series. The Pirates are +210 moneyline underdogs for this matchup with the Phillies (-260). Philadelphia is favored on the run line (-1.5). The matchup's over/under has been set at 8 runs.

The Philadelphia Phillies will give the start to Wheeler (13-6, 3.59 ERA), who is looking for win No. 14 on the season, and the Pirates will turn to Luis Ortiz (4-5, 4.96 ERA).

Here is everything you need from a betting perspective on the Phillies-Pirates game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks.

Phillies vs. Pirates Game Information & Odds

• When: Thursday, September 28, 2023 at 6:05 PM ET
• Where: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• How to Watch on TV: NBCS-PH

Phillies vs. Pirates Prediction

• Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Pirates 4
• Total Prediction: Over 8 runs
• Win Probabilities: Phillies 58%, Pirates 42%

Phillies vs. Pirates Betting Insights

• This season, the Phillies have won 66 out of the 109 games, or 60.6%, in which they've been favored.
• Philadelphia has a record of 4-1 when favored by -260 or more by oddsmakers this season.
• The Phillies have a 72.2% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• The Pirates have won in 55, or 43.3%, of the 127 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
• Pittsburgh has a win-loss record of 4-4 when favored by +210 or worse by oddsmakers this year.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Pirates have a 32.3% chance of walking away with the win.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

• The Phillies were the moneyline favorite in seven of their last 10 games, and they went 6-1 in those matchups.
• In their last 10 matchups (all had set totals), the Phillies combined with their opponents to hit the over on the total six times.
• The Phillies' ATS record is 4-6-0 over their past 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Phillies Player Insights

• Trea Turner is hitting .263 with 33 doubles, five triples, 26 home runs and 45 walks.
• Including all MLB hitters, Turner is 63rd in batting average, 100th in on-base percentage, and 62nd in slugging.
• Turner takes a hitting streak of two games into this game. In his last five games he is batting .111 with a double, three walks and an RBI.
• Kyle Schwarber has hit 45 home runs to lead his team.
• Schwarber is third in homers and 14th in RBI among all MLB hitters this season.
• Alec Bohm has 31 doubles, 19 home runs and 42 walks while hitting .277.
• Bryce Harper's .296 batting average is a team-high mark.

Phillies Team Props

Learn more about this Phillies vs. Pirates matchup on Fox Sports.

Pirates Recent Betting Performance

• The Pirates have played as underdogs in 10 of their past 10 games and won five of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Pirates and their opponents have failed to hit the over four times.
• The Pirates are 7-3-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Pirates Recent Stats

Pirates Player Insights

• Bryan Reynolds has recorded a team-leading 83 runs batted in.
• Reynolds is 51st in home runs and 44th in RBI among all hitters in the big leagues.
• Hayes' .275 batting average paces his team.
• Hayes ranks 142nd in homers and 116th in RBI among all major league hitters this year.
• Jack Suwinski has 26 home runs, tops in the clubhouse.
• Connor Joe is hitting .241 with 29 doubles, four triples, 11 home runs and 47 walks.

Pirates Team Props

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MLB - Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies - 09/28/2023

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