Pirates vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 18

Updated Jul. 18, 2023 7:06 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

Carlos Santana and the Pittsburgh Pirates will try to get the better of Logan Allen, the Cleveland Guardians' starter, on Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET. The Pirates are -112 moneyline favorites for this matchup with the Guardians (-107). Pittsburgh is the run-line favorite (-1.5). The over/under is 8.5 runs for this contest (with -114 odds to go over and -106 odds on the under).

The matchup on the mound for this contest is set with the Pittsburgh Pirates looking to Mitch Keller (9-4), and Allen answering the bell for the Cleveland Guardians.

Here is everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Pirates-Guardians game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks (odds via FOX Bet):

Pirates vs. Guardians Game Information & Odds

When: Tuesday, July 18, 2023 at 7:05 PM ET
Where: PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
How to Watch on TV: SportsNet PT

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Pirates	-112	-107	8.5	-114	-106	-1.5	+174	-207

Pirates vs. Guardians Prediction

Score Prediction: Pirates 5, Guardians 4
Total Prediction: Under 8.5 runs
Win Probabilities:

Pirates vs. Guardians Betting Insights

This season, the Pirates have been favored 20 times and won 12, or 60%, of those games.
Pittsburgh is 11-8 this season when entering a game favored by -112 or more on the moneyline.
The Pirates have a 52.8% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
The Guardians have come away with 17 wins in the 42 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
This season, Cleveland has come away with a win 16 times in 39 chances when named as an underdog of at least -107 or worse on the moneyline.
The Guardians have an implied victory probability of 51.7% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.

Pirates Recent Betting Performance

In the last 10 games, the Pirates have not been favored on the moneyline.
Over their last 10 matchups, the Pirates and their opponents combined to go over the run total six times (all 10 of the games had set totals).
The Pirates' ATS record is 3-7-0 over their past 10 games.

Pirates Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	2-8
Runs Per Game	3.3
HR	6
ERA	5.31
K/9	8.2

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Pirates Player Insights

Bryan Reynolds is hitting .261 with 21 doubles, three triples, nine home runs and 31 walks.
Including all MLB batters, Reynolds ranks 68th in batting average, 76th in on-base percentage, and 71st in slugging.
Carlos Santana is hitting .232 with 22 doubles, nine home runs and 41 walks.
Santana is 137th in home runs in baseball, and 69th in RBI.
Andrew McCutchen paces the Pirates with a team-best batting average of .267.
McCutchen has at least one base hit in two games in a row. During his last five outings he is batting .091 with a double and two walks.
Jack Suwinski's 19 home runs and 48 runs batted in are both team-highs.

Pirates Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Andrew McCutchen	0.5 (-233)	1.5 (+125)	0.5 (+450)	0.5 (+150)
Bryan Reynolds	1.5 (+195)	1.5 (+110)	0.5 (+550)	0.5 (+185)
Carlos Santana	0.5 (-213)	1.5 (+140)	0.5 (+650)	0.5 (+165)
Tucupita Marcano	0.5 (-159)	0.5 (-159)	0.5 (+1100)	0.5 (+255)
Connor Joe	0.5 (-204)	0.5 (-200)	0.5 (+750)	0.5 (+250)

Learn more about this Pirates vs. Guardians matchup on Fox Sports.

Guardians Recent Betting Performance

In five games as underdogs over the last 10 matchups, the Guardians have a record of 1-4.
The Guardians and their opponents have combined to hit the over five times in their last 10 games with a total.
Over their last 10 games, the Guardians are 6-4-0 against the spread.

Guardians Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	5-5
Runs Per Game	4.7
HR	12
ERA	4.50
K/9	8.9

Guardians Player Insights

Jose Ramirez leads the Guardians with 14 long balls.
Ramirez's home run total places him 53rd in MLB, and he ranks 31st in RBI.
Josh Naylor has a club-best 69 runs batted in and .313 batting average.
Naylor is currently 64th in home runs and fifth in RBI in the big leagues.
Steven Kwan is batting .270 with 22 doubles, two triples, three home runs and 41 walks.
Andres Gimenez has 14 doubles, four triples, eight home runs and 20 walks while hitting .240.

Guardians Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Josh Naylor	1.5 (+190)	1.5 (+110)	0.5 (+600)	0.5 (+130)
Andrés Giménez	0.5 (-204)	1.5 (+150)	0.5 (+1000)	0.5 (+200)
Amed Rosario	1.5 (+150)	1.5 (+100)	0.5 (+950)	0.5 (+170)
Steven Kwan	1.5 (+175)	1.5 (+115)	-	0.5 (+210)
Myles Straw	0.5 (-233)	1.5 (+160)	-	0.5 (+210)

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