Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Prediction, Odds, Picks - August 4

Updated Aug. 4, 2023 7:05 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

James Paxton starts for the Boston Red Sox on Friday at Fenway Park against Whit Merrifield and the Toronto Blue Jays. First pitch is set for 7:10 PM ET in this first game of a three-game series. The Red Sox are favored in this one, at -162, while the underdog Blue Jays have +137 odds to win. Boston is favored on the run line (-1.5). The over/under is 10.5 runs for the game (with -114 odds to go over and -105 odds to go under).

The Red Sox will start Paxton (6-2) against the Blue Jays and Alek Manoah (2-8).

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Red Sox-Blue Jays game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks (odds via FOX Bet):

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Game Information & Odds

When: Friday, August 4, 2023 at 7:10 PM ET
Where: Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts
How to Watch on TV: MLB Network

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Red Sox	-162	+137	10.5	-114	-105	-1.5	+118	-141

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Prediction

Score Prediction: Red Sox 5, Blue Jays 4
Total Prediction: Under 10.5 runs
Win Probabilities: Red Sox 53%, Blue Jays 47%

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Betting Insights

The Red Sox have been favorites in 48 games this season and won 26 (54.2%) of those contests.
Boston has a record of 6-6, a 50% win rate, when favored by -162 or more by bookmakers this season.
The moneyline for this contest implies a 61.8% chance of a victory for the Red Sox.
The Blue Jays have come away with 16 wins in the 31 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
Toronto has yet to win this season when listed as an underdog of +137 or worse on the moneyline this season.
The Blue Jays have an implied victory probability of 42.2% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.

Red Sox Recent Betting Performance

The Red Sox played as the moneyline favorite in four of their last 10 games, and they went 2-2 in those matchups.
In their last 10 matchups, the Red Sox and their opponents combined to hit the over four times (all 10 of the games had set totals).
The Red Sox have a 6-4-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games.

Red Sox Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	6-4
Runs Per Game	4.5
HR	16
ERA	3.38
K/9	9.2

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Red Sox Player Insights

Justin Turner is batting .286 with 25 doubles, 17 home runs and 39 walks.
Turner ranks 46th in homers and 12th in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
Turner has collected a hit in three games in a row. During his last five outings he is batting .286 with two doubles, a home run, a walk and seven RBI.
Rafael Devers has shown off his power as he leads his team with 25 home runs and 76 runs batted in.
Including all major league hitters, Devers is 10th in homers and seventh in RBI.
Masataka Yoshida leads the Red Sox with a team-high batting average of .305.
Yoshida has at least one base hit in two games in a row. In his last five games he is batting .167 with a double, a walk and an RBI.
Alex Verdugo is batting .272 with 27 doubles, four triples, eight home runs and 38 walks.
Verdugo has recorded at least one hit in six straight games. In his last 10 games he is batting .171 with a home run, five walks and two RBI.

Red Sox Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Christian Arroyo	0.5 (-286)	1.5 (+120)	0.5 (+700)	0.5 (+175)
Adam Duvall	0.5 (-233)	1.5 (+105)	0.5 (+380)	0.5 (+115)
Rafael Devers	1.5 (+185)	1.5 (-120)	0.5 (+310)	0.5 (-120)
Triston Casas	0.5 (-196)	1.5 (+125)	0.5 (+360)	0.5 (+145)
Alex Verdugo	1.5 (+180)	1.5 (+100)	0.5 (+650)	0.5 (+135)

Learn more about this Red Sox vs. Blue Jays matchup on Fox Sports.

Blue Jays Recent Betting Performance

The Blue Jays have played as underdogs in three of their past 10 games and have gone 2-1 in those contests.
In their last 10 games with a total, the Blue Jays and their opponents have failed to hit the over eight times.
The Blue Jays are 6-4-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Blue Jays Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	5-5
Runs Per Game	4.3
HR	13
ERA	3.67
K/9	9.9

Blue Jays Player Insights

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. paces the Blue Jays with 17 long balls and runs batted in, driving in 67.
Among all hitters in MLB, Guerrero ranks 46th in home runs and 23rd in RBI.
Merrifield has a club-best .299 batting average.
Merrifield is 165th in home runs and 76th in RBI among all major league hitters this season.
George Springer is hitting .243 with 14 doubles, a triple, 13 home runs and 38 walks.
Matt Chapman has 33 doubles, a triple, 14 home runs and 53 walks while hitting .254.

Blue Jays Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1.5 (+170)	1.5 (-105)	0.5 (+380)	0.5 (+120)
Alejandro Kirk	0.5 (-233)	1.5 (+130)	0.5 (+650)	0.5 (+180)
Danny Jansen	0.5 (-263)	1.5 (+100)	0.5 (+310)	0.5 (+125)
Matt Chapman	0.5 (-222)	1.5 (+105)	0.5 (+310)	0.5 (+140)
Whit Merrifield	1.5 (+135)	1.5 (-125)	0.5 (+600)	0.5 (+195)

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