Red Sox vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 4

Updated Jul. 4, 2024 1:01 p.m. ET

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The Boston Red Sox versus Miami Marlins game on Thursday at 1:10 PM ET will feature a pair of hot hitters in Rafael Devers and Jazz Chisholm. The Red Sox are -157 moneyline favorites in this matchup with the Marlins (+133). Boston is a 1.5-run favorite (at +105 odds). The contest's total has been listed at 8 runs.

Check out everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Red Sox-Marlins game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

Red Sox vs. Marlins Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the Boston Red Sox and the Miami Marlins on Wednesday, July 3.

Red Sox vs. Marlins Game Information & Odds

• When: Thursday, July 4, 2024 at 1:10 PM ET
• Where: LoanDepot park in Miami, Florida
• How to Watch on TV: BSFL

Red Sox vs. Marlins Prediction

• Score Prediction: Red Sox 4, Marlins 3
• Total Prediction: Under 8 runs
• Win Probabilities: Red Sox 54%, Marlins 46%

Red Sox vs. Marlins Betting Insights

• This season, the Red Sox have won 24 out of the 43 games, or 55.8%, in which they've been favored.
• Boston has a record of 7-3 in games when sportsbooks favor them by at least -157 on the moneyline.
• The Red Sox have a 61.1% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• The Marlins have been chosen as underdogs in 72 games this year and have walked away with the win 27 times (37.5%) in those games.
• Miami has a mark of 11-22 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +133 or worse on the moneyline.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Marlins have a 42.9% chance of pulling out a win.

FINAL (12)

BOS 6 · MIA 5

MLB

RUN LINE

TO WIN

TOTAL

Boston Red Sox

BOS

-1.5

-161

O 8

Miami Marlins

MIA

+1.5

+133

U 8

Red Sox Recent Betting Performance

• The Red Sox played as the moneyline favorite in nine of their last 10 games, and went 5-4 in those matchups.
• In their last 10 outings (all 10 of them had set totals), the Red Sox and their opponents combined to go over the run total seven times.
• The Red Sox have put together a 4-6-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games.

Red Sox Recent Stats

Red Sox Player Insights

• Jarren Duran is batting .285 with 23 doubles, 10 triples, 10 home runs and 32 walks.
• Duran ranks 84th in homers and 63rd in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Duran carries a five-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last five games he is hitting .238 with three home runs, two walks and three RBI.
• Devers' 18 home runs, 49 runs batted in and .291 batting average are all team-highs.
• Including all MLB hitters, Devers is 14th in homers and 29th in RBI.
• Devers has three straight games with at least one hit. During his last five outings he is batting .368 with a triple, two home runs, two walks and seven RBI.
• Ceddanne Rafaela is hitting .243 with 14 doubles, three triples, nine home runs and 10 walks.
• Rafaela is on a two-game hitting streak entering this contest. During his last five outings he is hitting .316 with two doubles, a triple, a home run and six RBI.
• Tyler O'Neill has 10 doubles, 16 home runs and 31 walks while hitting .261.
• O'Neill has recorded at least one hit in two straight games. In his last five games he is batting .263 with a home run, three walks and two RBI.

Red Sox Team Props

Learn more about this Red Sox vs. Marlins matchup on Fox Sports.

Marlins Recent Betting Performance

• In 10 games as underdogs over the last 10 matchups, the Marlins have a record of 4-6.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Marlins and their opponents have combined to hit the over five times.
• The Marlins have five wins against the spread in their last 10 chances.

Marlins Recent Stats

Marlins Player Insights

• Chisholm paces the Marlins with a team-leading batting average of .259.
• Chisholm's home run total places him 84th in the majors, and he ranks 72nd in RBI.
• Bryan De La Cruz has hit 15 home runs with 40 RBI, leading the team in both categories.
• Among all MLB hitters, De La Cruz is 24th in homers and 63rd in RBI.
• Josh Bell is batting .236 with 15 doubles, a triple, eight home runs and 24 walks.
• Jesus Sanchez is hitting .240 with 10 doubles, eight home runs and 15 walks.

Marlins Team Props

Red Sox vs. Marlins Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the Boston Red Sox and the Miami Marlins on Wednesday, July 3.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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