Red Sox vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 22

Updated Jul. 22, 2023 2:00 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

Justin Turner and the Boston Red Sox will play Francisco Lindor and the New York Mets at Fenway Park on Saturday at 2:10 PM ET, in the first game of a three-game series. The Mets are +103 moneyline underdogs for this matchup with the favored Red Sox (-122). Boston is the favorite on the run line (-1.5 with +165 odds). The matchup's over/under has been set at 9 runs.

The Boston Red Sox will hand the ball to Kutter Crawford (4-4, 3.61 ERA), who is looking for win No. 5 on the season, and the Mets will counter with Kodai Senga (7-5, 3.20 ERA).

Here is everything you need from a betting perspective on the Red Sox-Mets game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks (odds via FOX Bet):

Red Sox vs. Mets Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 2:10 PM ET
Where: Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts
How to Watch on TV: MLB Network

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Red Sox	-122	+103	9	-109	-110	-1.5	+165	-201

Red Sox vs. Mets Prediction

Score Prediction: Red Sox 5, Mets 4
Total Prediction: Over 9 runs
Win Probabilities: Red Sox 54%, Mets 46%

Red Sox vs. Mets Betting Insights

This season, the Red Sox have been favored 44 times and won 24, or 54.5%, of those games.
Boston has a record of 17-12, a 58.6% win rate, when favored by -122 or more by bookmakers this season.
The implied probability of a win from the Red Sox, based on the moneyline, is 55%.
The Mets have come away with 10 wins in the 32 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
This season, New York has come away with a win two times in 18 chances when named as an underdog of at least +103 or worse on the moneyline.
Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Mets have a 49.3% chance of pulling out a win.

Red Sox Recent Betting Performance

The Red Sox have a 5-3 record from the eight games they were moneyline favorites over their last 10 matchups.
In their last 10 matchups, the Red Sox and their opponents combined to go over the run total six times (all 10 of the games had set totals).
The Red Sox have gone 6-4-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Red Sox Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	7-3
Runs Per Game	6.6
HR	15
ERA	4.03
K/9	10.7

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Red Sox Player Insights

Turner is hitting .289 with 22 doubles, 15 home runs and 35 walks.
Including all MLB hitters, Turner is 16th in batting average, 31st in on-base percentage, and 35th in slugging.
Turner carries a 15-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last 10 outings he is hitting .351 with four doubles, two home runs, three walks and 12 RBI.
Rafael Devers has shown his power as he leads his team with 23 home runs and 73 runs batted in.
Devers is ninth in home runs and sixth in RBI among all batters in baseball.
Masataka Yoshida has put up a team-best batting average of .317.
Yoshida has at least one base hit in four straight games. In his last five games he is batting .318 with three doubles, a triple, a home run and six RBI.
Alex Verdugo is batting .280 with 27 doubles, four triples, seven home runs and 34 walks.

Red Sox Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Justin Turner	1.5 (+185)	1.5 (+105)	0.5 (+550)	0.5 (+150)
Triston Casas	0.5 (-189)	1.5 (+135)	0.5 (+425)	0.5 (+160)
Rafael Devers	0.5 (-278)	1.5 (-105)	0.5 (+360)	0.5 (+110)
Adam Duvall	0.5 (-189)	1.5 (+130)	0.5 (+380)	0.5 (+150)
Alex Verdugo	1.5 (+190)	1.5 (+110)	0.5 (+800)	0.5 (+180)

Learn more about this Red Sox vs. Mets matchup on Fox Sports.

Mets Recent Betting Performance

The Mets have played as underdogs in five of their past 10 games and won two of those contests.
In their last 10 games with a total, the Mets and their opponents have failed to hit the over eight times.
The Mets have a record of 4-6-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Mets Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	5-5
Runs Per Game	4
HR	12
ERA	3.50
K/9	8.3

Mets Player Insights

Lindor is batting .229 with 21 doubles, two triples, 19 home runs and 42 walks, while getting on base at a rate of .318.
In all of the majors, Lindor is 20th in homers and 16th in RBI.
Pete Alonso has hit 26 home runs with 63 runs batted in, leading the team in both categories.
Alonso is fifth overall in home runs and 13th in RBI this season.
Brandon Nimmo has a team-best batting average of .261.
Jeff McNeil has 14 doubles, a triple, three home runs and 28 walks while hitting .246.

Mets Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Mark Canha	0.5 (-233)	1.5 (+130)	0.5 (+550)	0.5 (+195)
Pete Alonso	1.5 (+180)	1.5 (-115)	0.5 (+245)	0.5 (+100)
Tommy Pham	1.5 (+170)	1.5 (-110)	0.5 (+400)	0.5 (+145)
Jeff McNeil	1.5 (+155)	1.5 (-115)	0.5 (+650)	0.5 (+130)
Brandon Nimmo	1.5 (+175)	1.5 (-115)	0.5 (+475)	0.5 (+145)

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