Red Sox vs. Twins Prediction, Odds, Picks - May 4

Ty France and the Minnesota Twins square off against Jarren Duran and the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on Sunday at 1:35 p.m. ET. The favored Red Sox have -199 moneyline odds to win against the underdog Twins, who are listed at +165. Boston (-1.5) is the favorite on the run line. The total is 8.5 runs for this contest.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Red Sox-Twins game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Twins vs. Red Sox Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the Minnesota Twins and the Boston Red Sox.

Red Sox vs. Twins Game Information & Odds

• When: Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 1:35 p.m. ET
• Where: Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts
• How to watch on TV: MLB Network, NESN, and MNNT

Red Sox vs. Twins Prediction

• Score Prediction: Red Sox 4, Twins 3
• Total Prediction: Under 8.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Red Sox 54%, Twins 46%

Red Sox vs. Twins Betting Insights

• This season, the Red Sox have been favored 27 times and won 15, or 55.6%, of those games.
• This season Boston has won four of its six games when favored by at least -199 on the moneyline.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 66.6% chance of a victory for the Red Sox.
• The Twins have been underdogs in 11 games this season and have come away with the win three times (27.3%) in those contests.
• Minnesota has played as an underdog of +165 or more just one time this year and came away with a loss in that game.
• The Twins have an implied victory probability of 37.7% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Red Sox Recent Betting Performance

• The Red Sox were the moneyline favorite for nine of their last 10 games, and they went 4-5 in those matchups.
• Over their last 10 matchups, the Red Sox and their opponents combined to go over the run total six times (all 10 of the games had set totals).
• The Red Sox have put together a 4-6-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games.

Red Sox Recent Stats

Red Sox Player Insights

• Alexander Bregman's eight round-trippers and 27 RBI both lead the Red Sox, in addition to his team-high .324 average.
• Among all batters in the majors, Bregman is 17th in homers and seventh in RBI.
• Duran is hitting .280 with nine doubles, four triples, two home runs and 10 walks.
• Duran is 173rd in home runs in baseball, and 37th in RBI.
• Duran enters this game looking for his eighth game in a row with a hit. During his last 10 games he is hitting .362 with four doubles, two triples, a home run, two walks and eight RBI.
• Rafael Devers is hitting .256 with 11 doubles, five home runs and 25 walks.
• Devers will look to build on his eight-game hitting in this game. In his last 10 outings he is hitting .357 with four doubles, three home runs, five walks and 10 RBI.
• Wilyer Abreu has six doubles, six home runs and 21 walks while batting .262.

Red Sox Team Props

Twins Recent Betting Performance

• The Twins have played as underdogs in four of their past 10 games and won two of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Twins and their opponents are 2-8-0 when it comes to hitting the over.
• The Twins have won six of their last 10 games against the spread.

Twins Recent Stats

Twins Player Insights

• France has put up a team-best batting average of .264 while leading the Twins in runs batted in with a mark of 19.
• Among all hitters in the big leagues, France's home run total is 123rd and his RBI tally ranks 37th.
• Byron Buxton has hit a team-best six home runs.
• Buxton is 36th in homers and 55th in RBI among all hitters in the big leagues.
• Trevor Larnach is batting .227 with two doubles, four home runs and 15 walks.
• Ryan Jeffers has eight doubles, two home runs and 10 walks while hitting .271.

Twins Team Props

Twins vs. Red Sox Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the Minnesota Twins and the Boston Red Sox.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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