Tigers vs. Guardians ALDS Game 5 Prediction, Odds, Picks - October 12

Updated Oct. 11, 2024 4:01 a.m. ET

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The Detroit Tigers will visit the Cleveland Guardians in the fifth and final game of the ALDS on Saturday at 8:08 p.m. ET, live on Max from Progressive Field. The winner will advance to the ALCS after the teams split the first four games of the series. The Guardians are +105 moneyline underdogs in this matchup against the favored Tigers (-125). Detroit is the favorite on the run line (-1.5 with +155 odds). The over/under is 6 runs for this contest.

Take a look at everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Tigers-Guardians game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

David Fry smacks a go-ahead two-run homer to help Guardians defeat Tigers, 5-4, in ALDS

David Fry smacked a go-ahead two-run homer to help the Cleveland Guardians defeat the Detroit Tigers, 5-4, in Game 4 of the ALDS.

Tigers vs. Guardians Game Information & Odds

• When: Saturday, October 12, 2024 at 8:08 p.m. ET
• Where: Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio
• How to Watch on TV: Max

Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction

• Score Prediction: Guardians 5, Tigers 3
• Total Prediction: Over 6 runs
• Win Probabilities: Tigers 57%, Guardians 43%

Tigers vs. Guardians Betting Insights

• This season, the Tigers have won 40 out of the 68 games, or 58.8%, in which they've been favored.
• Detroit has a record of 31-17, a 64.6% win rate, when favored by -125 or more by bookmakers this season.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 55.6% chance of a victory for the Tigers.
• The Guardians have been chosen as underdogs in 59 games this year and have walked away with the win 27 times (45.8%) in those games.
• Cleveland has a mark of 13-26 in contests where sportsbooks favor it by +105 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Guardians have a 48.8% chance of walking away with the win.

Sun 12:08 AM

TBS

MLB

RUN LINE

TO WIN

TOTAL

Detroit Tigers

DET

-1.5

-125

O 6

Cleveland Guardians

CLE

+1.5

+105

U 6

Tigers Recent Betting Performance

• The Tigers played as the moneyline favorite in five of their last 10 games, and they finished 3-2 in those matchups.
• In their last 10 matchups, the Tigers and their opponents combined to hit the over three times (all 10 of the games had set totals).
• The Tigers' ATS record is 6-4-0 over their past 10 games.

Tigers Recent Stats

Tigers Player Insights

• Riley Greene's 24 homers and 74 RBI both lead the Tigers, in addition to his team-high .262 average.
• Greene's home runs rank him 42nd in MLB, and he ranks 61st in RBI.
• Greene carries a two-game hitting streak into this matchup. During his last five outings he is batting .235 with three walks and an RBI.
• Matt Vierling has 28 doubles, five triples, 16 home runs and 41 walks while batting .257.
• Among all major league hitters, Vierling is 117th in homers and 126th in RBI.
• Colt Keith is hitting .260 with 15 doubles, four triples, 13 home runs and 36 walks.
• Kerry Carpenter is hitting .284 with 16 doubles, five triples, 18 home runs and 22 walks.

Learn more about this Tigers vs. Guardians matchup on Fox Sports.

Guardians Recent Betting Performance

• Over the past 10 games, the Guardians have been underdogs twice and lost both games.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Guardians and their opponents have failed to hit the over seven times.
• The Guardians have four wins against the spread in their last 10 chances.

Guardians Recent Stats

Guardians Player Insights

• Jose Ramirez has posted a team-leading 39 home runs and has driven in 118 runs.
• Ramirez's home run total places him fifth in MLB, and he ranks third in RBI.
• Josh Naylor has 27 doubles, 31 home runs and 58 walks while hitting .243.
• Naylor ranks 18th in home runs and eighth in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Steven Kwan has accumulated a team-high batting average of .292.
• Andres Gimenez is hitting .252 with 22 doubles, a triple, nine home runs and 26 walks.

David Fry smacks a go-ahead two-run homer to help Guardians defeat Tigers, 5-4, in ALDS

David Fry smacked a go-ahead two-run homer to help the Cleveland Guardians defeat the Detroit Tigers, 5-4, in Game 4 of the ALDS.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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