Twins vs. Astros ALDS Game 3 Prediction, Odds, Picks - October 10

Updated Oct. 10, 2023 4:00 p.m. ET

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The Minnesota Twins will host the Houston Astros in the third game of the ALDS on Tuesday at 4:07 PM ET, live on FOX from Target Field. The teams split the first two games of the series and would move within a win of the ALCS with a victory in this matchup. Oddsmakers list the Twins as -124 favorites on the moneyline, while giving the underdog Astros +105 moneyline odds to win. Minnesota is favored on the run line (-1.5). The over/under for the game has been listed at 8 runs.

The Twins are projected to give the nod to Sonny Gray (8-8, 2.79 ERA) versus the Astros and Cristian Javier (10-5, 4.56 ERA).

Take a look at everything you need from a betting perspective on the Twins-Astros game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks.

Twins vs. Astros Game Information & Odds

• When: Tuesday, October 10, 2023 at 4:07 PM ET
• Where: Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota
• How to Watch on TV: FOX

Twins vs. Astros Prediction

• Score Prediction: Twins 5, Astros 4
• Total Prediction: Over 8 runs
• Win Probabilities: Twins 53%, Astros 47%

Twins vs. Astros Betting Insights

• The Twins have won 69, or 60.5%, of the 114 games they've played as favorites this season.
• Minnesota has a record of 58-39, a 59.8% win rate, when favored by -124 or more by sportsbooks this season.
• The implied probability of a win from the Twins, based on the moneyline, is 55.4%.
• The Astros have been chosen as underdogs in 43 games this year and have walked away with the win 28 times (65.1%) in those games.
• Houston has a mark of 16-11 in contests where oddsmakers favor it by +105 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Astros have a 48.8% chance of walking away with the win.

Twins Recent Betting Performance

• The Twins were the moneyline favorite for eight of their last 10 games, and they went 6-2 in those matchups.
• Over their last 10 matchups (all 10 of them had set totals), the Twins and their opponents combined to hit the over six times.
• The Twins have put together a 6-4-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games.

Twins Recent Stats

Twins Player Insights

• Max Kepler is the Twins best power hitter, hitting 24 long balls this season in addition to accumulating 66 RBI, both team highs.
• Kepler brings a hitting streak of eight games into this matchup. During his last 10 outings he is hitting .371 with two doubles, two home runs, four walks and six RBI.
• Carlos Correa has a club-high .230 batting average.
• Correa ranks 112th in homers and 109th in RBI among all major league batters this year.
• Correa has four straight games with at least one hit. During his last five outings he is batting .421 with three doubles, a walk and four RBI.
• Willi Castro has 18 doubles, five triples, nine home runs and 34 walks while hitting .257.
• Edouard Julien is hitting .263 with 16 doubles, a triple, 16 home runs and 64 walks.
• Julien is riding a three-game hitting streak into this one. During his last five outings he is hitting .267 with a double, three walks and two RBI.

Twins Team Props

Learn more about this Twins vs. Astros matchup on Fox Sports.

Astros Recent Betting Performance

• The Astros have played as underdogs in three of their past 10 games and won two of those contests.
• The Astros and their opponents have combined to hit the over four times in their last 10 games with a total.
• The Astros have a record of 5-5-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Astros Recent Stats

Astros Player Insights

• Kyle Tucker leads the Astros with 112 runs batted in while putting up a team-best batting average of .284.
• Tucker's home run total puts him 30th in the big leagues, and he ranks third in RBI.
• Alex Bregman has 28 doubles, four triples, 25 home runs and 92 walks while hitting .262.
• Among all major league batters, Bregman ranks 46th in home runs and 19th in RBI.
• Yordan Alvarez leads the Astros with 31 long balls.
• Jose Altuve is hitting .311 with 21 doubles, two triples, 17 home runs and 44 walks.

Astros Team Props

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