Twins vs. Blue Jays AL Wild Card Game 1 Prediction, Odds, Picks - October 3

Updated Oct. 3, 2023 4:06 p.m. ET

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The AL Wild Card Series begins on Tuesday when the Minnesota Twins play host to the Toronto Blue Jays. Action begins at 4:38 PM ET at Target Field, and can be watched on ESPN. The Twins are -122 moneyline favorites in this matchup with the Blue Jays (+102). Toronto (-1.5) is the favorite on the run line. The over/under is 7.5 runs for this contest.

The Twins will start Pablo Lopez (11-8) against the Blue Jays and Kevin Gausman (12-9).

Here is everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Twins-Blue Jays game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks.

Twins vs. Blue Jays Game Information & Odds

• When: Tuesday, October 3, 2023 at 4:38 PM ET
• Where: Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota
• How to Watch on TV: ESPN

Twins vs. Blue Jays Prediction

• Score Prediction: Twins 5, Blue Jays 4
• Total Prediction: Over 7.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Twins 53%, Blue Jays 47%

Twins vs. Blue Jays Betting Insights

• The Twins have been favorites in 112 games this season and won 67 (59.8%) of those contests.
• Minnesota is 60-39 this season when entering a game favored by -122 or more on the moneyline.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 55% chance of a victory for the Twins.
• The Blue Jays have been underdogs in 42 games this season and have come away with the win 23 times (54.8%) in those contests.
• Toronto has a mark of 11-10 in contests where sportsbooks favor it by +102 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Blue Jays have a 49.5% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Twins Recent Betting Performance

• The Twins went 6-3 over the nine games they were a moneyline favorite in their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 matchups (all had set totals), the Twins combined with their opponents to go over the run total six times.
• The Twins have put together a 6-4-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games.

Twins Recent Stats

Twins Player Insights

• Max Kepler is the Twins best power option, launching 24 homers this season in addition to delivering 66 RBI, both team highs.
• Kepler has collected a hit in four straight games. During his last five outings he is hitting .467 with a double, a home run, three walks and four RBI.
• Willi Castro has 18 doubles, five triples, nine home runs and 34 walks while batting .257.
• Castro has five straight games with at least one hit. During his last five outings he is hitting .375 with six walks.
• Edouard Julien is batting .260 with 16 doubles, a triple, 16 home runs and 64 walks.
• Julien will look to build on his two-game hitting in this game. In his last five games he is batting .300 with a double, two home runs, four walks and five RBI.
• Jorge Polanco is batting .255 with 18 doubles, 14 home runs and 36 walks.

Twins Team Props

Learn more about this Twins vs. Blue Jays matchup on Fox Sports.

Blue Jays Recent Betting Performance

• The Blue Jays have played as underdogs in five of their past 10 games and won two of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Blue Jays and their opponents have combined to hit the over seven times.
• The Blue Jays have won five of their last 10 games against the spread.

Blue Jays Recent Stats

Blue Jays Player Insights

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has posted a team-high 26 home runs and has driven in 94 runs.
• Among all batters in the big leagues, Guerrero is 38th in homers and 35th in RBI.
• George Springer has 25 doubles, a triple, 21 home runs and 60 walks while batting .256.
• Among all major league hitters, Springer ranks 80th in homers and 81st in RBI.
• Bo Bichette has put up a team-best batting average of .305.
• Whit Merrifield is batting .272 with 27 doubles, 11 home runs and 36 walks.

Blue Jays Team Props

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