Yankees vs. Guardians ALCS Game 1 Prediction, Odds, Picks - October 14

Updated Oct. 13, 2024 1:01 a.m. ET

Data Skrive

The ALCS begins on Monday when the New York Yankees play host to the Cleveland Guardians. Action begins at 7:38 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium, and can be watched on TBS. The Yankees are -158 moneyline favorites in this matchup against the Guardians (+133). New York is the favorite on the run line (-1.5 with +136 odds). The total for the game is listed at 7.5 runs.

Take a look at everything you need from a betting perspective on the Yankees-Guardians game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Yankees vs. Guardians Game Information & Odds

When: Monday, October 14, 2024 at 7:38 p.m. ET
Where: Yankee Stadium in The Bronx, New York
How to Watch on TV: TBS

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Yankees	-158	+133	7.5	-103	-117	-1.5	+136	-161

Yankees vs. Guardians Prediction

Score Prediction: Yankees 5, Guardians 4
Total Prediction: Over 7.5 runs
Win Probabilities: Yankees 59%, Guardians 41%

Yankees vs. Guardians Betting Insights

The Yankees have won 77, or 57.5%, of the 134 games they've played as favorites this season.
New York is 44-27 this season when entering a game favored by -158 or more on the moneyline.
Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Yankees have a 61.2% chance to win.
The Guardians have been chosen as underdogs in 60 games this year and have walked away with the win 28 times (46.7%) in those games.
This year, Cleveland has won six of 16 games when listed as at least +133 or worse on the moneyline.
The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Guardians have a 42.9% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Yankees Recent Betting Performance

The Yankees went 5-5 over the 10 games they were favored on the moneyline in their last 10 matchups.
In their last 10 matchups (all 10 of them had set totals), the Yankees and their opponents combined to hit the over five times.
The Yankees have gone 3-7-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Yankees Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	5-5
Runs Per Game	4.6
HR	11
ERA	4.20
K/9	9.2

Yankees Player Insights

Aaron Judge paces the Yankees with 58 home runs and 144 runs batted in, while racking up a team-high batting average of .322.
Including all MLB batters, Judge ranks third in batting average, first in on-base percentage, and first in slugging.
Juan Soto is batting .288 with 31 doubles, four triples, 41 home runs and 129 walks.
Including all MLB hitters, Soto is fourth in home runs and sixth in RBI.
Jazz Chisholm is hitting .256 with 21 doubles, four triples, 24 home runs and 53 walks.
Gleyber Torres is batting .257 with 26 doubles, 15 home runs and 65 walks.

Learn more about this Yankees vs. Guardians matchup on Fox Sports.

Guardians Recent Betting Performance

In three games as underdogs over the last 10 matchups, the Guardians have a record of 1-2.
In their last 10 games with a total, the Guardians and their opponents have combined to hit the over three times.
The Guardians have five wins against the spread in their last 10 chances.

Guardians Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	5-5
Runs Per Game	3.6
HR	9
ERA	2.45
K/9	10.1

Guardians Player Insights

Jose Ramirez leads the Guardians with 39 long balls and runs batted in, driving in 118.
In all of MLB, Ramirez is fifth in home runs and third in RBI.
Josh Naylor is batting .243 with 27 doubles, 31 home runs and 58 walks.
Naylor ranks 18th in home runs and eighth in RBI among all hitters in the big leagues.
Steven Kwan leads the Guardians' lineup with a .292 batting average.
Andres Gimenez has 22 doubles, a triple, nine home runs and 26 walks while batting .252.