Yankees vs. Guardians ALCS Game 3 Prediction, Odds, Picks - October 17

Updated Oct. 16, 2024 5:01 a.m. ET

Data Skrive

Game 3 of the ALCS takes place on Thursday when the New York Yankees travel to take on the Cleveland Guardians. The Yankees will look to take a 3-0 lead while the Guardians hope to get back on track with a win at Progressive Field, starting at 5:08 p.m. ET on truTV. The Guardians are -102 moneyline underdogs in this matchup against the favorite Yankees (-117). New York is the favorite on the run line (-1.5 with +148 odds). The game's total has been listed at 7 runs.

Check out everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Yankees-Guardians game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

Yankees' Aaron Judge hits his first homer of the postseason, solidifying the win over the Guardians

New York Yankees' Aaron Judge hit his first homer of the postseason, solidifying the win over the Cleveland Guardians.

Yankees vs. Guardians Game Information & Odds

When: Thursday, October 17, 2024 at 5:08 p.m. ET
Where: Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio
How to Watch on TV: truTV

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Yankees	-117	-102	7	-120	-100	-1.5	+148	-179

Yankees vs. Guardians Prediction

Score Prediction: Guardians 5, Yankees 4
Total Prediction: Over 7 runs
Win Probabilities: Yankees 52%, Guardians 48%

Yankees vs. Guardians Betting Insights

This season, the Yankees have won 79 out of the 136 games, or 58.1%, in which they've been favored.
New York is 74-54 this season when entering a game favored by -117 or more on the moneyline.
The implied probability of a win from the Yankees, based on the moneyline, is 53.9%.
The Guardians have been chosen as underdogs in 62 games this year and have walked away with the win 28 times (45.2%) in those games.
Cleveland has a mark of 20-33 in contests where bookmakers favor it by -102 or worse on the moneyline.
The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Guardians have a 50.5% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Yankees Recent Betting Performance

The Yankees went 7-3 over the 10 games they were favored on the moneyline in their last 10 matchups.
In their last 10 matchups (all had set totals), the Yankees combined with their opponents to go over the total five times.
The Yankees are 5-5-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Yankees Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	7-3
Runs Per Game	4.7
HR	11
ERA	3.30
K/9	9.5

Yankees Player Insights

Aaron Judge's 58 homers and 144 RBI both lead the Yankees, on top of his team-high .322 average.
Judge's home runs rank him first in MLB, and he ranks first in RBI.
Juan Soto has 31 doubles, four triples, 41 home runs and 129 walks while hitting .288.
Soto is fourth in homers and sixth in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
Soto carries a three-game streak with at least one hit into this contest. In his last five games he is batting .267 with a home run, five walks and three RBI.
Jazz Chisholm is hitting .256 with 21 doubles, four triples, 24 home runs and 53 walks.
Gleyber Torres is batting .257 with 26 doubles, 15 home runs and 65 walks.
Torres brings a three-game streak with at least one hit into this one. During his last five outings he is hitting .286 with two doubles, four walks and an RBI.

Yankees Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Clarke Schmidt	-	-	-	-

Learn more about this Yankees vs. Guardians matchup on Fox Sports.

Guardians Recent Betting Performance

In four games over the last 10 matchups when set as underdogs by sportsbooks, the Guardians had a record of 1-3.
The Guardians and their opponents have combined to hit the over four times in their last 10 games with a total.
The Guardians are 3-7-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Guardians Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	4-6
Runs Per Game	3.4
HR	9
ERA	3.10
K/9	10.7

Guardians Player Insights

Jose Ramirez leads the Guardians in home runs (39) and runs batted in (118).
Among all hitters in MLB, Ramirez is fifth in homers and third in RBI.
Josh Naylor has 27 doubles, 31 home runs and 58 walks while batting .243.
Naylor ranks 18th among all hitters in the majors in home runs, and eighth in RBI.
Steven Kwan leads the Guardians' lineup with a .292 batting average.
Andres Gimenez is hitting .252 with 22 doubles, a triple, nine home runs and 26 walks.

Guardians Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Steven Kwan	0.5 (-235)	1.5 (+145)	-	0.5 (+280)
José Ramírez	0.5 (-215)	1.5 (+125)	-	0.5 (+185)
Kyle Manzardo	0.5 (-130)	0.5 (-130)	-	0.5 (+250)
Will Brennan	0.5 (-185)	0.5 (-185)	-	0.5 (+265)
Bo Naylor	0.5 (+105)	0.5 (+105)	-	0.5 (+280)