Favorites and Sleepers: Thermal

Updated Mar. 21, 2025 5:31 p.m. ET

INDYCAR

Note: Eric Smith of INDYCAR.com takes a fun look before each NTT INDYCAR SERIES race at drivers who enter the weekend with an inside line to victory lane and drivers who could surprise with a strong result.

Sunday’s The Thermal Club INDYCAR Grand Prix marks the second race of the 2025 season but the first points-paying event on the 3.067-mile, 17-turn road course near Palm Springs, California. The NTT INDYCAR SERIES hosted an exhibition event last year featuring two heat races and a 20-lap main event among 12 drivers. The track also hosted a two-day preseason test in 2023.

This primer sets the scene with five drivers to watch as favorites and five more drivers to watch as sleepers who could sneak their way to victory lane for Sunday’s 65-lap race airing at 3 p.m. ET on FOX, FOX Sports app and INDYCAR Radio Network.

Favorites

Scott McLaughlin (No. 3 XPEL Team Penske Chevrolet)

Four of McLaughlin’s seven career NTT INDYCAR SERIES victories have come on natural road courses. Scotty Mac was eighth quickest in the 2023 preseason test at The Thermal Club and finished runner-up to Alex Palou in last year’s exhibition. On natural road courses, McLaughlin had six top-10 finishes in seven starts in 2023 and five top-seven finishes in six starts in 2024, including a second consecutive victory at Barber Motorsports Park. He earned NTT P1 Award honors in the season opener earlier this month at St. Petersburg and finished fourth.

Alex Palou (No. 10 DHL Chip Ganassi Racing Honda)

The Spaniard is arguably at his best on natural road courses. Among his 12 career NTT INDYCAR SERIES victories, 10 are on these types of tracks, including last year’s The Thermal Club $1 Million Challenge. He also picked up a season-opening victory March 2 on the streets of St. Petersburg to start his defense of two straight championships. Following a seventh-place result in the 2023 two-day test at Thermal, Palou led the way in both Open Test sessions last year and parlayed that into a pole, a heat race win and a victory in the exhibition race. Palou also had five top-three finishes in seven starts on natural road courses in 2023, with an average finishing position of 2.71. Last year, he had finishes of fifth, first, fourth, first, second and second, respectively, on natural road courses.

Will Power (No. 12 Verizon Team Penske Chevrolet)

Power had four top-two finishes, including victories at Road America and Portland International Raceway, in six natural road course starts last season. His worst finish on natural road courses was 11th at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course, a race weekend when he was ill. Power was a surprise DNQ for the main event at The Thermal Club last year but boasts higher expectations this weekend.

Colton Herta (No. 26 Gainbridge Honda)

Herta has a knack for these types of circuits. Five of Herta’s nine NTT INDYCAR SERIES wins have come on natural road courses. Three of those nine wins have come in California. Can he pick up another Golden State victory Sunday? Herta finished fourth in last year’s exhibition race and produced finishes of eighth, seventh, sixth, second, fourth and fourth, respectively, on natural road courses in 2024.

Felix Rosenqvist (No. 60 SiriusXM Honda)

Rosenqvist was fifth quickest in last year’s Open Test at The Thermal Club and turned that into a pole for his heat race. That led to a victory and a front-row starting spot for the main event. Rosenqvist finished third in the 20-lap exhibition race last year at Thermal and secured three top-11 finishes on natural road courses in 2024. This season, his Meyer Shank Racing team has a technical alliance with Chip Ganassi Racing, which produced three of the top-six finishers last year at The Thermal Club.

Sleepers

Christian Lundgaard (No. 7 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet)

Alexander Rossi was the lone Arrow McLaren driver represented in the 20-lap exhibition race last year and finished seventh. Lundgaard who finished ninth here last season for Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, inherits Rossi’s McLaren ride in 2025. The Dane was the second-quickest driver in the Open Test at The Thermal Club in both 2023 and last year. Lundgaard also had six top-seven finishes in seven natural road course starts in 2023 and three top-seven finishes in six starts on this discipline of tracks last season.

Santino Ferrucci (No. 14 AJ FOYT RACING/SEXTON PROPERTIES Chevrolet)

Ferrucci narrowly missed the final transfer spot to the main event last season, but he did have four top-10 finishes in six points-paying natural road course starts. He also earned NTT P1 Award honors at Portland International Raceway, the last natural road course of the 2024 season.

Kyle Kirkwood (No. 27 Chili’s Honda)

Kirkwood didn’t make the main event last year but did have a top-11 finishes in six points-paying natural road course races. Having tested here in late January, Kirkwood has bigger aspirations for the inaugural points-paying event this weekend.

Marcus Ericsson (No. 28 Bryant Honda)

Another Andretti Global driver who didn’t make the main event but had success on natural road courses a season ago. Ericsson had four consecutive top-10 finishes on like tracks to close out 2024 and was quickest among six drivers in the January 2025 test session. Confidence is high for the Swede, who was in the top seven of every practice and qualifying session in St. Petersburg and finished sixth.

Marcus Armstrong (No. 66 SiriusXM/Root Insurance Honda)

Armstrong was third quickest in the test session last year and finished fifth in the main 20-lap event. Also, Armstrong had a pair of fifth-place finishes on natural road courses a season ago.