Analysis: Kansas City Chiefs still in AFC West driver's seat despite so many blunders, butterfingers

Updated Dec. 26, 2023 12:07 p.m. ET

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The AFC West title was ripe to get wrested from the Kansas City Chiefs this season, yet their division rivals dug themselves into big holes once again.

There's still a mathematical chance the Raiders (7-8) or Broncos (7-8) could catch the Chiefs (9-6) following Las Vegas' 20-14 win at Arrowhead on Christmas Day, but a lot would have to line up for one of them to unseat K.C.

The defending but teetering Super Bowl champions have owned the division since 2016, when Patrick Mahomes was still slinging it in Lubbock, Texas, and tight end Travis Kelce was heading into his first All-Pro season.

If the Chiefs hold on to claim their eighth consecutive division crown, they'll nonetheless head into the playoffs with more question marks than they've had since Mahomes became their starting quarterback in 2018 after serving a year as Alex Smith's apprentice.

The Chiefs can no longer earn the No. 1 seed and the first-round bye in the AFC, which means in their five-year run as host of the AFC championship will almost certainly come to an end, as will Mahomes' amazing streak of playing every single one of his AFC postseason games at home.

Mahomes' receivers have been butterfingers all season, which should have jeopardized their status as the AFC West's biggest bully if only:

— The Broncos hadn't lost at home to underdogs led by the likes of the Raiders' Jimmy Garoppolo, the Commanders' Sam Howell, the Jets' Zach Wilson and the Patriots Bailey Zappe, a less-than-fearsome foursome of quarterbacks who are a combined 9-23 against everybody else this season.

— Raiders owner Mark Davis hadn't been so enamored with Josh McDaniels, who bombed with the Broncos and bailed on the Colts, that he bypassed Rich Bisaccia for the fulltime head coaching job after his longtime special teams coordinator took over for the fired Jon Gruden in 2021 and went 7-5, leading the Raiders to the playoffs.

— The Chargers had found a way to get their stars out of the training room turnstile and finally capitalized on a talent-laden roster and quarterback Justin Herbert's skillset before he was lost for the season with a finger injury earlier this month.

While the Chargers again failed to live up to their billing, the Broncos and Raiders certainly made some strides, albeit in fits and starts, in 2023.

The Chargers stumbled again and lost Herbert for the season in a Week 14 loss to Denver, then fired coach Brandon Staley following L.A.'s embarrassing 63-21 loss to the Raiders a week later.

The Broncos snapped their 16-game losing streak to the Chiefs with a resounding 24-7 win on Oct. 29 as they recovered from a 1-5 stumble to start the season and join the crowded AFC playoff race. But they have yet to finish a week in playoff position and they followed a five-game winning streak with three losses in four games, including back-to-back to Detroit and New England the last two weeks.

The Raiders turned to interim head coach Antonio Pierce after jettisoning McDaniels with a 9-16 record, and Pierce has gone 4-3 with several signature wins, starting with a 30-0 wipeout of the Giants, whom he once played for, that 63-21 win over the Chargers that established a franchise single-game scoring record and the upset in Kansas City on Monday.

Las Vegas got a pair of defensive touchdowns for the second straight week, and the resurgent Raiders held off the sloppy Chiefs 20-14 to keep their postseason hopes alive. Bilal Nichols returned a fumble 8 yards for a touchdown, and Jack Jones took an interception 33 yards for another score a mere 7 seconds later, helping the Raiders snap a six-game losing streak to the Chiefs.

Even if the Raiders or Broncos fail to catch Kansas City this year, there's hope for 2024 for all of the Chiefs' division rivals.

The Broncos are better under Sean Payton than they were with Nathaniel Hackett as head coach, although Payton has made a series of curious calls such as using two timeouts on defense in the final minute Sunday night when Bill Belichick seemed content to take the game into overtime.

Given time to rethink his strategy, Belichick went for the gusto and his scuffling young kicker Chad Ryland nailed a tie-breaking 56-yard field goal with 2 seconds remaining.

The Raiders are better under Pierce than they were with McDaniels at the helm, and maybe Davis has learned his lesson from bypassing Bisaccia two years ago and will name Pierce his fulltime head coach no matter how this race finishes up.

And yes, the Chargers looked like a different team under interim coach Giff Smith last weekend even though the result was all too familiar. The Bolts’ 24-22 loss to the Buffalo Bills on Saturday night was their sixth by three points or fewer this season and their league-leading 13th since 2020.

The loss also officially eliminated the Chargers from postseason contention and dropped their record to 5-10, although owner Dean Spanos essentially pulled the plug on the season Dec. 15 when he fired Staley and general manager Tom Telesco after their embarrassing loss at Las Vegas.

The Chargers did two things against the Bills that weren’t evident in their previous two games — they had energy and played disciplined football.

“The game plan was tight. I feel like all week long we had fun and executed,” safety Derwin James said. “We just came out a few plays short today. You’ve seen a team that was out there trying to fight hard.”

Maybe that bodes well for the Bolts' future, just as the Raiders' resurgence and the Broncos' bounce-back give them hope that 2024 will finally be their year.

Of course, the Chiefs figure to fix their epidemic of dropped passes next season, too, so the Broncos, Raiders and Chargers had better keep getting better or Kansas City's reign will keep rolling right along.

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With contributions from AP Sports Writer Joe Reedy.

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AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/NFL

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