NEW ENGLAND (4-11) at BUFFALO (9-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST, CBS
OPENING LINE: Bills by 11 1/2 according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
AGAINST THE SPREAD: Patriots 4-11; Buffalo 6-9.
SERIES RECORD: Patriots lead 78-49-1.
LAST MEETING: Patriots beat Bills 29-25 at New England on Oct. 22.
LAST WEEK: Patriots beat Broncos 26-23; Bills beat Chargers 24-22.
PATRIOTS OFFENSE: OVERALL (28), RUSH (25), PASS (24), SCORING (32).
PATRIOTS DEFENSE: OVERALL (8), RUSH (2), PASS (15), SCORING (16).
BILLS OFFENSE: OVERALL (5), RUSH (10), PASS (5), SCORING (5).
BILLS DEFENSE: OVERALL (10), RUSH (16), PASS (9), SCORING (4).
TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL: Patriots minus-7; Bills even.
PATRIOTS PLAYER TO WATCH: K Chad Ryland has missed field-goal attempts in four of the past six games. (In the other two, he did not attempt one). After missing a 47-yarder and an extra point early in last week’s game against Denver, the rookie fourth-round draft pick kicked a career-best 56-yarder with 2 seconds left to win the game.
BILLS PLAYER TO WATCH: WR Stefon Diggs has experienced a major drop in targets and production over the past five weeks, with opposing defenses intent on containing Buffalo’s top threat. The Bills, however, have won four of five with Josh Allen finding secondary options, and the emergence of a James Cook-led running attack. Allen is eager to get Diggs more involved.
KEY MATCHUP: DL Christian Barmore against Buffalo’s O-line. The third-year defensive lineman had a three-sack outing against Denver to increase his season total to a career-best 8 1/2. The Bills, however, have allowed a league-low 20 sacks, including seven in their past five outings. Barmore had New England’s lone sack in the teams’ previous matchup.
KEY INJURIES: Patriots ST Matthew Slater (hamstring) was a surprise scratch in last week’s game. TE Hunter Henry (knee) and S Jabrill Peppers (hamstring) also did not play against the Broncos. DB Jalen Mills left the game with a head injury and did not practice on Wednesday. RB Rhamondre Stevenson’s season is done with an ankle injury after being placed on IR. ... Bills DE Leonard Floyd’s status bears monitoring after being given a rest day on Wednesday to nurse rib and wrist injuries. DE A.J. Epenesa (rib) and S Micah Hyde (neck) could return after missing two games. Starting MLB Terrel Bernard is expected to play after hurting his ankle last weekend.
SERIES NOTES: The Bills squandered a 25-22 lead in October by allowing Mac Jones to cap an eight-play, 75-yard drive with a 1-yard TD pass to Mike Gesicki with 12 seconds remaining. ... The Patriots are 37-10 against Buffalo under coach Bill Belichick, but 2-6 in their past eight meetings including playoffs. ... The drop-off in wins coincides with Tom Brady leaving the Patriots following the 2019 season. ... The Patriots’ dominance over the Bills included a 15-game winning streak spanning 2003-10. ... New England last swept the season series in 2019.
STATS AND STUFF: New England’s 78 wins against Buffalo are its most against any opponent. ... The Patriots had limited opposing rushers to a league-best 3.2 yards per carry. They have held opposing teams under 3 yards per carry six times this season. The team record is eight in a season. … WR DeMario Douglas has 44 receptions for 517 yards. He has the most receptions for a rookie receiver under Bill Belichick, surpassing Deion Branch’s 43. With 3 more receiving yards, he would surpass the Aaron Dobson’s 519 in 2013. … P Bryce Barringer has at least one 50-yard punt in all 15 games. He is leading the NFL with 35 punts inside the 20 yard-line. … With three tackles, LB Ja’Whaun Bentley would be the first Patriot with three straight 100-tackle seasons since Jerod Mayo. …Ryland’s 56-yard game-winning field goal against Denver was the fifth longest in Patriots history. Stephen Gostkowski has the top three, including a 62-yarder against Oakland in 2017. ... The NFL lists 14 scenarios in which Buffalo can clinch its fifth straight playoff berth, with five based on the Bills beating New England and the remaining nine based on a tie. ... Bills coach Sean McDermott is 6-8 against New England since taking over in Buffalo in 2017. His six immediate predecessors plus interim coach Perry Fewell went a combined 4-28. ... The Bills are a combined 17-2 in regular-season games played in December and January since 2020. ... Allen’s 40 TDs (27 passing, 13 rushing) lead the NFL this season, and his streak of scoring in 23 straight games is the league’s longest active run. ... Allen is 36-26 overall and 6-6 this season when committing a turnover. ... Allen had his 18th game-winning drive, and second this season, against the Chargers. ... With 1,038 yards rushing and 433 receiving, RB Cook and San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey as the NFL’s only two players topping 1,000 yards rushing and 400 receiving. ... Cook is Buffalo’s first player to top 1,000 yards rushing since LeSean McCoy had 1,138 in 2017. ... Floyd’s 10 1/2 sacks are a career best, and the offseason free-agent addition became Buffalo’s first player with 10 or more since Lorenzo Alexander had 12 1/2 in 2016.
FANTASY TIP: Take the Bills defense with Patriots QB Bailey Zappe expected to make his seventh career start. Since 2019, the Bills are 20-2 against quarterbacks with 16 or fewer starts, in which they’ve allowed just 12 TDs passing while getting 67 sacks, 31 interceptions and a forced fumble.
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