Bills vs. Commanders Prediction, Odds, Picks - Sep 24

Published Sep. 20, 2023 1:06 p.m. ET

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The Buffalo Bills (1-1) are considered favorites (-6.5) according to the point spread ahead of their game versus the Washington Commanders (2-0) on September 24, 2023, starting at 1:00 PM ET, airing on CBS. The expected point total for the matchup is set at 44.5.

Bills vs. Commanders Odds & Betting Lines

Bills vs. Commanders Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Buffalo (-6.5)
  
• Pick OU: Over (44.5)
  
• Prediction: Buffalo 31 - Washington 17

How to Watch Buffalo vs. Washington

• Game Date: Sunday, September 24, 2023
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: FedExField
• Location: Landover, Maryland
• TV: Watch on CBS

Bills vs. Commanders Recent Matchups

• Buffalo has a 4-1 record against Washington in their last five matchups.
• Washington has been outpaced by 46 points in its last five tilts against Buffalo.

Buffalo Betting Info

• Buffalo went 8-8-0 ATS last season.
• As 6.5-point favorites or greater, the Bills went 5-7 against the spread last year.
• Buffalo games hit the over six out of 16 times last season.
• The Bills won 13 of the 16 games they were the moneyline favorite last season (81.2%).
• Buffalo went 10-1 last year (winning 90.9% of its games) when playing as a moneyline favorite of -285 or shorter.
• The Bills have an implied moneyline win probability of 74.0% in this contest.

Bills Stats (2022)

Buffalo's Key Players

Offense

• In 16 games played last year, Josh Allen racked up 4,283 passing yards (seventh-best in the NFL), with 35 touchdowns (second in the NFL) against 14 interceptions and completing 63.3% of his attempts.
• On the ground, Allen added seven rushing touchdowns and 762 rushing yards.
• Stefon Diggs had 108 catches (fourth in the NFL) for 1,429 yards (fifth in the NFL) and 11 receiving touchdowns (third in the NFL). He was targeted 154 times and averaged 6.8 receptions per game over 16 games played.
• Latavius Murray averaged 58.5 rushing yards per game last season (760 total yards), while scoring six rushing touchdowns.
• Murray's statistic output included 27 receptions (2.1 per game) on 35 targets for 132 yards (10.2 per game), but he did not found the end zone in the passing game.
• Gabriel Davis was targeted 93 times, resulting in 48 catches for 836 yards .

Defense

• In 2022, Matt Milano recorded 1.5 sacks to go with 12.0 TFL, 99 tackles, and three interceptions over 15 games.
• Leonard Floyd's stats for the Rams included 59 tackles, 10.0 TFL, and nine sacks.
• Taron Johnson intercepted one pass on top of89 tackles, 6.0 TFL, and nine passes defended in the 2022 campaign.
• Damar Hamlin compiled 88 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and two passes defended.

Washington Betting Info

• Washington won nine games against the spread last season, failing to cover eight times.
• As 6.5-point underdogs or greater, the Commanders had two wins ATS (2-1) last season.
• In Washington games last year, combined scoring went over the point total five times.
• Last season, the Commanders were the underdog eight times and won four of those games.
• Washington was 2-1 last season when entering a game as the underdog by +230 or more on the moneyline.
• The implied probability of a win by the Commanders, based on the moneyline, is 30.3%.

Commanders Stats (2022)

Washington's Key Players

Offense

• In 14 games last season for the Browns, Jacoby Brissett amassed 2,608 passing yards, while throwing 12 TD passes and six INTs, connecting on 64.0% of his attempts.
• Brissett also ran for two TDs and 243 yards.
• Terry McLaurin had 1,191 yards receiving (10th in the NFL) and five TDs on 77 catches, and was targeted 120 times.
• Last season in 15 games, Antonio Gibson racked up 546 yards rushing and scored three rushing TDs. He averaged 36.4 yards per game and 3.7 per attempt (44th in the NFL).
• In addition to his rushing stats, Gibson pulled down 46 passes (on 58 targets) for 353 yards with two receiving TDs. He averaged 23.5 receiving yards per game.
• Curtis Samuel had 656 yards receiving and four TDs via 64 catches on 92 targets.

Defense

• Cody Barton's 2022 season included 133 tackles, 4.0 TFL, two sacks, and two interceptions over 17 games for the Seahawks.
• Da'Ron Payne posted 64 tackles, 18.0 TFL, and 11.5 sacks.
• Jonathan Allen had 65 tackles, 16.0 TFL, 7.5 sacks, and one interception in 2022.
• Jamin Davis totaled 3.0 sacks plus 9.0 TFL and 104 tackles.

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