Bills vs. Dolphins Prediction, Odds, Picks - Jan 7

Published Jan. 3, 2024 7:03 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The Buffalo Bills (10-6) will be attempting to extend a four-game winning run against the Miami Dolphins (11-5). The Bills are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -3). The total for this one is set at 49.5 points.

Bills vs. Dolphins Odds & Betting Lines

Bills vs Dolphins Betting Information updated as of January 3, 2024, 3:34 PM ET.
Favorite	Spread	Favorite Spread Odds	Underdog Spread Odds	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds
Bills	-3	-110	-110	49.5	-108	-112

Bills vs. Dolphins Prediction & Pick

Pick ATS: Miami (+3)
Pick OU: Under (49.5)
Prediction: Miami 25 - Buffalo 24

How to Watch Buffalo vs. Miami

Game Date: Sunday, January 7, 2024
Time: 8:20 PM ET
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
TV: Watch on

Bills vs. Dolphins Recent Matchups

In their past five head-to-head meetings, Buffalo has taken down Miami four times.
Over their last five head-to-head contests, Buffalo has racked up 170 points, while Miami has compiled 121.

Buffalo Betting Info

Buffalo is 6-10-0 against the spread this season.
The Bills have an ATS record of 3-7 when playing as at least 3-point favorites this season.
Buffalo games this year have gone over the total in six out of 16 opportunities (37.5%).
When playing as the moneyline favorite, the Bills have won 69.2% of the time (9-4).
When playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -162 or shorter, Buffalo has a 7-3 record (winning 70% of its games).
The Bills have a 61.8% chance to win this contest, based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

Bills Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	238.1 (3,809)	10
Rush yards	130.3 (2,084)	7
Points scored	26.9 (430)	6
Pass yards against	198.4 (3,175)	7
Rush yards against	110.8 (1,772)	15
Points allowed	18.6 (297)	4

Buffalo's Key Players

Offense

Josh Allen has passed for 3,947 yards (seventh in the NFL), 27 touchdowns (seventh in the NFL) and 16 interceptions this year. He is averaging 246.7 yards per game and 7.3 per attempt, while completing 65.6% of his attempts.
He has tacked on 457 rushing yards (28.6 per game) and 15 touchdowns on the ground.
James Cook's rushing statline this season includes 1,086 yards (third in the NFL) and two TDs. He is averaging 67.9 yards per game and 4.8 per attempt (ninth in the NFL).
He has hauled in 41 passes (on 50 targets) for 429 receiving yards with four touchdowns. He's averaging 26.8 receiving yards and 2.6 catches per game.
In 16 games played, Stefon Diggs is averaging 68.5 yards and 6.3 receptions per game to total 1,096 receiving yards and 100 catches (10th in the NFL). He's been targeted 152 times, and has eight receiving touchdowns (eighth in the NFL).
Gabriel Davis has 45 receptions for 746 yards and seven touchdowns. He's been targeted 79 times in the passing game, and averages three receptions and 49.7 yards in 15 games played.

Defense

Over on the defensive side, Terrel Bernard has three interceptions to go with 134 tackles, 10 TFL, 6.5 sacks, and five passes defended in 2023.
Ed Oliver has picked off one pass and added 50 tackles, 14 TFL, 9.5 sacks, and three passes defended.
This season, Taron Johnson has recorded one sack in addition to his two TFL and 89 tackles.
Rasul Douglas has one sack to go with three TFL, 61 tackles, and five interceptions on the year.

Miami Betting Info

Miami has covered the spread 10 times this season (10-6-0).
This year, the Dolphins have just one ATS win in three games as an underdog of 3 points or more.
This year, Miami games have hit the over nine times.
This season, the Dolphins have won one out of the five games in which they've been the underdog.
Miami has played as an underdog of +136 or more once this season and lost that game.
The implied probability of a win by the Dolphins based on the moneyline is 42.4%.

Dolphins Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	271.7 (4,347)	1
Rush yards	137.5 (2,200)	5
Points scored	30.1 (482)	1
Pass yards against	213.5 (3,416)	12
Rush yards against	95.1 (1,522)	7
Points allowed	23.1 (370)	21

Miami's Key Players

Offense

Through 16 games played this year, Tua Tagovailoa has amassed 4,451 passing yards (leading the league), with 28 touchdowns (fourth in the NFL) against 12 interceptions and completing 69.6% of his passes.
Tyreek Hill has put together a 2023 stat sheet that includes 112 catches (second in the NFL) for 1,717 yards (first in the NFL) and 12 receiving touchdowns (second in the NFL) over 15 games played. He has been on the receiving end of 158 targets and is averaging 7.5 receptions per game.
Raheem Mostert is averaging 67.5 rushing yards per game this season (1,012 total yards to rank sixth in the NFL), while scoring 18 rushing touchdowns.
In addition to his ground game, Mostert has hauled in 25 passes (on 32 targets) for 175 yards (seventh on the Dolphins), with three receiving touchdowns. He averages 11.7 yards per game.
Devon Achane puts up 74.4 rushing yards per game over 10 games (744 total yards), with seven rushing touchdowns.
Achane also has 192 receiving yards (19.2 per game) on 26 catches (2.6 per game). He has been targeted 36 times with three touchdown receptions.

Defense

Bradley Chubb has 74 tackles, 11 TFL, 11 sacks, and two passes defended in 2023.
Zach Sieler has totaled 9.5 sacks in addition to his 11 TFL, 56 tackles, and one interception through 16 games.
Over the 2023 campaign, Andrew Van Ginkel has 68 tackles, eight TFL, six sacks, and one interception through 16 games.
Christian Wilkins' stats include 59 tackles, 11 TFL, eight sacks, and two passes defended in 16 games

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