Bills vs. Patriots 2024 Prediction, Odds, Picks - Dec 22

Updated Dec. 20, 2024 8:44 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The Buffalo Bills (11-3) are heavy favorites, expected to win by two touchdowns or more (currently -14) over the New England Patriots (3-11). The Patriots have dropped four games in a row. The expected point total for the matchup is set at 46.5.

Keep up with the 2024 NFL season on FOX Sports.

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Bills vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Lines

Bills vs Patriots Betting Information updated as of December 19, 2024, 11:33 a.m. ET.
Favorite	Spread	Favorite Spread Odds	Underdog Spread Odds	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds
Bills	-14	-110	-110	46.5	-108	-112

Bills vs. Patriots Prediction & Pick

Pick ATS: Bills (-14)
Pick OU: Over (46.5)
Prediction: Bills 36 - Patriots 11

How to Watch Buffalo vs. New England

Game Date: Sunday, December 22, 2024
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium
Location: Orchard Park, New York
TV: CBS
Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

Bills vs. Patriots Recent Matchups

Buffalo has a 4-1 record against New England in their last five matchups.
Over their last five head-to-head matchups, Buffalo has scored 158 points, while New England has posted 100.

Buffalo Betting Info

Buffalo has nine wins in 14 games versus the spread this season.
Buffalo games this year have gone over the total in nine out of 14 opportunities (64.3%).
When playing as moneyline favorites, the Bills are 9-1, earning a victory 90% of the time.
The implied probability for this matchup, considering the moneyline, gives the Bills a 90.9% chance to win.

Bills Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	238.8 (3,343)	7
Rush yards	130.8 (1,831)	9
Points scored	31.8 (445)	2
Pass yards against	227.8 (3,189)	25
Rush yards against	117.7 (1,648)	14
Points allowed	22.1 (310)	12

Buffalo's Key Players

Offense

Josh Allen has 3,395 passing yards (ninth in the NFL), 25 touchdowns (sixth in the NFL) and five interceptions this year. He has completed 64.4% of his passes, averaging 242.5 yards per game and 8.0 per attempt.
He has tacked on 484 rushing yards (34.6 per game) and 11 touchdowns on the ground.
James Cook has collected 828 rushing yards with 13 touchdowns (63.7 yards per game across 13 games). His 4.8 yards per attempt rank 11th in the league.
He has also hauled in 29 passes (on 35 targets) for 232 receiving yards with one touchdown. He's averaging 17.8 receiving yards and 2.2 catches per game.
Khalil Shakir has four touchdown catches this season, and has 71 receptions for 774 yards on 88 targets, while averaging 5.5 catches and 59.5 yards per game.
Ray Davis has run for 357 yards, averaging 25.5 yards per game and scoring three touchdowns.
Davis has been targeted 14 times to the tune of 13 receptions, 167 yards and two TDs.

Defense

On the defensive side, Gregory Rousseau has 46 tackles, 16.0 TFL, and 7.5 sacks in 2024.
Dorian Williams has 5.0 TFL and 97 tackles.
This season, Terrel Bernard has recorded 1.0 sack as well as 5.0 TFL, 86 tackles, and two interceptions.
This season, Damar Hamlin has 82 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and two interceptions.

New England Betting Info

New England is 5-8-1 against the spread this season.
New England games have gone over the total nine times this year.
This season, the Patriots have been the underdog 14 times and won three, or 21.4%, of those games.
The implied probability of a win by the Patriots based on the moneyline is 13.3%.

Patriots Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	173.2 (2,425)	32
Rush yards	119.2 (1,669)	14
Points scored	17 (238)	31
Pass yards against	216.7 (3,034)	16
Rush yards against	127.4 (1,784)	21
Points allowed	24.1 (337)	23

New England's Key Players

Offense

Drake Maye is averaging 6.8 passing yards per attempt (23rd in the NFL) and 189.8 yards per game this year, completing 68.5% of his passes on the way to 1,898 total yards, 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions through 10 games.
On the ground, Maye has added two rushing touchdowns and 359 rushing yards (third on the Patriots).
Rhamondre Stevenson has scored six rushing touchdowns, while totaling 740 rushing yards (3.8 per attempt and 56.9 per game).
Stevenson has also picked up 155 receiving yards (11.9 per game) on 32 catches (2.5 per game). He's been targeted 39 times and has caught one touchdown pass.
In 14 games played this season, Hunter Henry has 62 catches (4.4 receptions per game on 6.2 targets per game) for 635 yards and one receiving touchdown.
Antonio Gibson has 405 rushing yards (second on the Patriots) and one rushing touchdown, while averaging 28.9 yards per game and 4.7 per attempt.
Gibson has added 17 catches (1.2 per game) for 178 yards (12.7 per game), without a receiving touchdown. He has been on the receiving end of 20 targets.

Defense

Jahlani Tavai's 2024 output includes 89 tackles, 7.0 TFL, one sack, and one interception through 14 games. He leads the Patriots in tackles.
Keion White's stats include 50 tackles, 7.0 TFL, five sacks, and five passes defended.
Anfernee Jennings has 69 tackles, 6.0 TFL, and 2.5 sacks in the 2024 campaign.
Christian Gonzalez has intercepted two passes to go with 57 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and 11 passes defended.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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