Bills vs. Patriots 2024 Prediction, Odds, Picks - Jan 5

Updated Jan. 5, 2025 12:45 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The Buffalo Bills (13-3) will be aiming to continue a three-game winning streak against the New England Patriots (3-13). The Bills are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -3). The total for this one is set at 36.5 points.

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Bills vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Lines

Bills vs Patriots Betting Information updated as of January 5, 2025, 12:33 p.m. ET.
Favorite	Spread	Favorite Spread Odds	Underdog Spread Odds	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds
Bills	-3	-112	-108	36.5	-112	-108

Bills vs. Patriots Prediction & Pick

Pick ATS: Bills (-3)
Pick OU: Over (36.5)
Prediction: Bills 34 - Patriots 14

How to Watch Buffalo vs. New England

Game Date: Sunday, January 5, 2025
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium
Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
TV: CBS
Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

Bills vs. Patriots Recent Matchups

Over their last five meetings, Buffalo has totaled four wins against New England.
In their last five head-to-head matchups, Buffalo has compiled 135 points against New England, while giving up only 104 points.

Buffalo Betting Info

In 16 Buffalo games this season, it has 10 wins against the spread.
The Bills have covered the spread five times this season (5-4 ATS) when playing as at least 3-point favorites.
Buffalo games this year have gone over the total in 10 out of 16 opportunities (62.5%).
When playing as moneyline favorites, the Bills are 11-1, earning a victory 91.7% of the time.
The Bills have an implied win probability, based on the moneyline, of 63.6%.

Bills Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	234.1 (3,746)	9
Rush yards	131.3 (2,100)	9
Points scored	31.8 (509)	3
Pass yards against	225.7 (3,611)	23
Rush yards against	117.9 (1,886)	13
Points allowed	21.6 (345)	12

Buffalo's Key Players

Offense

Josh Allen ranks 10th in the NFL with 3,731 passing yards in 16 games this year, averaging 233.2 per game with a 63.6% completion percentage and 28 touchdowns (sixth in the NFL) against six interceptions.
He has also rushed for 531 yards (second on the Bills) and added 12 touchdowns on the ground, while averaging 33.2 rushing yards per game.
James Cook's rushing statline this season includes 981 yards and 15 TDs. He's averaging 65.4 yards per game and 5.0 per attempt (ninth in the NFL).
He's also hauled in 32 passes (on 38 targets) for 258 receiving yards with two touchdowns. He's averaging 17.2 receiving yards and 2.1 catches per game.
In the passing game, Khalil Shakir, has racked up 821 receiving yards and four touchdowns after hauling in 76 balls on 100 targets. Per game, he's averaging 54.7 yards and 5.1 receptions through 15 games.
Ray Davis has rushed for 378 yards with three touchdowns (23.6 yards per game in 16 games).
Davis has been targeted 16 times and turned those targets into 15 catches, 188 yards and two TDs.

Defense

On defense, Gregory Rousseau has 8.0 sacks (first on the Bills) to go with 16.0 TFL and 53 tackles in 2024.
Dorian Williams has 110 tackles and 5.0 TFL.
Terrel Bernard has put up 104 tackles, 5.0 TFL, one sack, and two interceptions this year.
Christian Benford has two interceptions while adding 63 tackles, 3.0 TFL, one sack, and 10 passes defended.

New England Betting Info

New England is 6-9-1 against the spread this season.
The Patriots are 5-8 ATS when underdogs by 3 points or more this year.
This season, New England games have hit the over 10 times.
The Patriots have won three, or 18.8%, of the 16 games they've played as underdogs this season.
The implied probability of a win by the Patriots based on the moneyline is 40.8%.

Patriots Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	172.7 (2,763)	32
Rush yards	118.2 (1,891)	13
Points scored	16.6 (266)	30
Pass yards against	216.7 (3,467)	15
Rush yards against	131.4 (2,103)	25
Points allowed	25.1 (401)	25

New England's Key Players

Offense

In 12 games played this year, Drake Maye has amassed 2,276 passing yards, while throwing 15 touchdowns against 10 interceptions and completing 66.8% of his passes.
He's added 421 yards on the ground (third on the Patriots), while scoring two rushing touchdowns. He's averaging 35.1 yards per game and 7.8 per attempt.
Rhamondre Stevenson has scored seven rushing touchdowns, while totaling 801 rushing yards (3.9 per attempt and 53.4 per game).
Stevenson has also collected 168 receiving yards (11.2 per game) on 33 catches (2.2 per game). He's been targeted 41 times and has caught one touchdown pass.
So far this season, Hunter Henry has caught 66 passes for 674 receiving yards with two touchdowns in the passing game. He has been targeted 98 total times and is averaging 4.1 receptions per game over 16 games played.
Demario Douglas has 63 catches for 587 yards and three receiving touchdowns. He averages 4.2 yards per game through 15 games and has been targeted 83 times.

Defense

Jahlani Tavai has recorded 1.0 sack to go with 7.0 TFL, 105 tackles, and one interception over 16 games in 2024.
Keion White has 53 tackles, 7.0 TFL, five sacks, and five passes defended.
Kyle Dugger has 77 tackles, 8.0 TFL, and one sack in the 2024 season. He is second on the Patriots in tackles.
Anfernee Jennings has 2.5 sacks (third on the Patriots) to go with 6.0 TFL and 73 tackles through 15 games.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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