Bills vs. Patriots Prediction, Odds, Picks - Dec 31

Published Dec. 27, 2023 1:03 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The Buffalo Bills (9-6) are heavy favorites (-12) over the New England Patriots (4-11). The Bills have won three games in a row. The expected point total for the matchup is set at 40.5.

Bills vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Lines

Bills vs Patriots Betting Information updated as of December 27, 2023, 9:33 AM ET.
Favorite	Spread	Favorite Spread Odds	Underdog Spread Odds	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds
Bills	-12	-112	-108	40.5	-110	-110

Bills vs. Patriots Prediction & Pick

Pick ATS: Buffalo (-12)
Pick OU: Under (40.5)
Prediction: Buffalo 30 - New England 11

How to Watch Buffalo vs. New England

Game Date: Sunday, December 31, 2023
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium
Location: Orchard Park, New York
TV: Watch on CBS

Bills vs. Patriots Recent Matchups

Over their last five meetings, New England has collected three wins against Buffalo.
New England has been outscored by 9 points in its last five tilts against Buffalo.

Buffalo Betting Info

Buffalo has played 15 games, posting six wins against the spread.
The Bills have been favored by 12 points or more this season twice, and failed to cover both times.
Buffalo games in 2023 have hit the over five times in 15 opportunities (33.3%).
When playing as the moneyline favorite, the Bills are 8-4, earning a victory 66.7% of the time.
Buffalo has played as a moneyline favorite of -650 or shorter in only two games this season, and it won both.
The Bills have an 86.7% chance to win this matchup, based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

Bills Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	243.7 (3,655)	9
Rush yards	130.5 (1,957)	7
Points scored	26.9 (403)	6
Pass yards against	198.9 (2,984)	9
Rush yards against	111.3 (1,669)	16
Points allowed	18.4 (276)	4

Buffalo's Key Players

Offense

Josh Allen has passed for 3,778 yards (sixth in the NFL), 27 touchdowns (third in the NFL) and 15 interceptions this year. He averages 251.9 yards per game and 7.4 per attempt, while completing 66.5% of his passes.
He has also rushed for 413 yards (second on the Bills) and added 13 touchdowns on the ground, while averaging 27.5 rushing yards per game.
James Cook has totaled 1,038 rushing yards (third in the NFL) with two touchdowns (69.2 yards per game over 15 games). His 5.0 yards per attempt rank seventh in the league.
He has caught 40 passes (on 47 targets) for 433 receiving yards with four touchdowns. He's averaging 28.9 receiving yards and 2.7 catches per game.
In the passing game, Stefon Diggs, has totaled 1,070 receiving yards and eight touchdowns (seventh in the NFL) after pulling down 96 balls (eighth in the NFL) on 145 targets. Per game, he's averaging 71.3 yards and 6.4 receptions over 15 games.
Gabriel Davis has 43 catches for 725 yards and seven touchdowns. He's been targeted 76 times in the passing game, and averages 3.1 receptions and 51.8 yards in 14 games played.

Defense

On the defensive side for the Bills, Terrel Bernard has racked up 124 tackles, 7.0 TFL, 4.5 sacks, and three interceptions in 2023.
Taron Johnson has 85 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and one sack this season. He's second on the Bills in tackles.
Ed Oliver has recorded 48 tackles, 13.0 TFL, 8.5 sacks, and two passes defended.
Rasul Douglas has three interceptions with 59 tackles, 3.0 TFL, one sack, and 11 passes defended.

New England Betting Info

New England have put together a 4-11-0 record against the spread this season.
New England's games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under six times this year.
This season, the Patriots have won three out of the 11 games, or 27.3%, in which they've been the underdog.
New England has not been a bigger underdog this season than the +470 moneyline set for this game.
The implied probability of a win by the Patriots based on the moneyline is 17.5%.

Patriots Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	189.8 (2,847)	24
Rush yards	95.7 (1,436)	25
Points scored	14.1 (212)	32
Pass yards against	221.3 (3,320)	15
Rush yards against	84.8 (1,272)	2
Points allowed	21.5 (322)	16

New England's Key Players

Offense

So far this year in 12 games, Rhamondre Stevenson has racked up 619 rushing yards (leading the Patriots) and scored four rushing touchdowns. He averages 51.6 yards per game and 4.0 per carry (21st in the NFL).
Stevenson's offensive contributions include 38 receptions (3.2 per game) on 51 targets for 238 yards (19.8 per game), though he has not scored a touchdown in the passing game.
Mac Jones has 2,120 passing yards, 10 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. His completion percentage is 64.9% and he averages 192.7 yards per game and 6.1 per attempt.
Ezekiel Elliott has rushed for two touchdowns this year, and has totaled 549 rushing yards (36.6 per game and 3.5 per carry).
Elliott's stat sheet includes 45 receptions (3.0 per game) on 56 targets for 280 yards (18.7 per game) and two receiving touchdowns.
Hunter Henry has 419 receiving yards and six touchdowns from 42 receptions after receiving 61 targets.

Defense

So far in 2023, Kyle Dugger has amassed 91 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and two interceptions over 15 games.
Jahlani Tavai has totaled 1.0 sack in addition to his 4.0 TFL, 91 tackles, and two interceptions through 15 games.
In the 2023 campaign, Ja'Whaun Bentley has 97 tackles, 5.0 TFL, and four sacks in 14 games.
Christian Barmore has 48 tackles, 11.0 TFL, 8.5 sacks, and six passes defended.

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