Bills vs. Patriots Prediction, Odds, Picks - Oct 22

Published Oct. 18, 2023 1:06 p.m. ET

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The New England Patriots (1-5) will be aiming to end a three-game losing run against the Buffalo Bills (4-2). The Bills are solid favorites, expected to win by at least a touchdown (currently -9). An over/under of 41.5 points has been set for the matchup.

Bills vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Lines

Bills vs. Patriots Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Buffalo (-9)
  
• Pick OU: Under (41.5)
  
• Prediction: Buffalo 31 - New England 10

How to Watch Buffalo vs. New England

• Game Date: Sunday, October 22, 2023
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Gillette Stadium
• Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
• TV: Watch on CBS

Bills vs. Patriots Recent Matchups

• Over their last five meetings, New England has three wins against Buffalo.
• New England has been outpaced by 1 point in its last five tilts versus Buffalo.

Buffalo Betting Info

• In six Buffalo games this year, it has three wins against the spread.
• The Bills have been favored by 9 points or more this season once, and failed to cover the spread.
• Buffalo games this year have gone over the point total two times in six opportunities (33.3%).
• The Bills have won 66.7% of the time they have played as moneyline favorites (4-2).
• Buffalo has played as a moneyline favorite of -410 or shorter in only one game this season, which it won.
• The Bills have an 80.4% chance to win this contest, based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

Bills Stats

Buffalo's Key Players

Offense

• Josh Allen has thrown for 1,576 yards (seventh in the NFL), 13 touchdowns (third in the NFL) and six interceptions this year. He averages 262.7 yards per game and 7.7 per attempt, while completing 71.7% of his passes.
• He has added 131 rushing yards (21.8 per game) and three touchdowns on the ground.
• Stefon Diggs' 620 receiving yards this season (third in the NFL) have come from 66 targets and 49 receptions (third in the NFL). He's averaging 103.3 receiving yards and 8.2 catches per game, with five receiving touchdowns (second in the NFL).
• James Cook has 363 rushing yards with one touchdown (60.5 yards per game across six games).
• Cook has been on the receiving end of 18 targets in the passing game and has 14 catches (2.3 per game) for 140 yards (23.3 per game) and zero TDs.
• Gabriel Davis averages 3.5 receptions and 56.8 yards per game, and has 341 total receiving yards and 21 catches. He's gotten 30 total targets, and has caught four touchdown passes (fourth in the NFL).

Defense

• Over on the defensive side, Terrel Bernard has two interceptions (ninth in the NFL) to go with 57 tackles, 5.0 TFL, two sacks, and two passes defended in 2023.
• Ed Oliver has 24 tackles, 9.0 TFL, and four sacks this season.
• Leonard Floyd has recorded 14 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and 6.5 sacks.
• A.J. Epenesa has 4.0 sacks (second on the Bills) to go with 4.0 TFL, nine tackles, and one interception on the season.

New England Betting Info

• New England has covered the spread one time over six games with a set spread.
• New England games have gone over the total once this season.
• The Patriots have been the underdog in four games this season, and they have failed to win any of those contests.
• New England has not entered a game this season as a bigger underdog on the moneyline than the +320 odds on them winning this game.
• The implied probability of a win by the Patriots based on the moneyline is 23.8%.

Patriots Stats

New England's Key Players

Offense

• Mac Jones is averaging 6.0 passing yards per attempt (29th in the NFL) and 201.3 yards per game this year, completing 64.2% of his passes on the way to 1,208 total yards, five touchdowns and seven interceptions through six games.
• Rhamondre Stevenson averages 39.0 rushing yards per game over six games (234 total yards), while scoring two rushing touchdowns.
• Stevenson has also picked up 111 receiving yards (18.5 per game) on 17 catches (2.8 per game). He's been targeted 24 times and is still seeking his first receiving touchdown.
• Kendrick Bourne has put up 307 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 28 receptions, while being targeted 44 times on the season.
• Hunter Henry has been targeted 28 times, resulting in 18 catches for 183 yards .

Defense

• Myles Bryant has 32 tackles, 3.0 TFL, one sack, and two passes defended in 2023.
• Jahlani Tavai has one interception on top of 37 tackles, 2.0 TFL, one sack, and two passes defended.
• During the 2023 campaign, Ja'Whaun Bentley has 40 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and one sack in six games.
• Jabrill Peppers' season stats include 36 tackles and 2.0 TFL in six games. He is fourth on the Patriots in tackles.

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