Buccaneers vs. Falcons Prediction, Odds, Picks - Oct 22

Published Oct. 18, 2023 1:06 p.m. ET

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) are slim favorites (-2.5) against the Atlanta Falcons (3-3) in a matchup of two division rivals. The predicted point total for the matchup is 38.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Odds & Betting Lines

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Tampa Bay (-2.5)
  
• Pick OU: Under (38)
  
• Prediction: Tampa Bay 19 - Atlanta 17

How to Watch Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta

• Game Date: Sunday, October 22, 2023
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Raymond James Stadium
• Location: Tampa, Florida
• TV: Watch on FOX

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Recent Matchups

• In their last five head-to-head meetings, Atlanta has beaten Tampa Bay three times.
• In their last five head-to-head matchups, Atlanta has compiled 129 points against Tampa Bay, while surrendering only 127 points.

Tampa Bay Betting Info

• Tampa Bay has played five games, posting three wins against the spread.
• The Buccaneers have been favored by 2.5 points or more once this season, and covered the spread.
• Tampa Bay's games this year have gone over the point total one time in five opportunities (20%).
• The Buccaneers have been moneyline favorites one other time this season, a game they won.
• Tampa Bay has played as a moneyline favorite of -135 or shorter in just one game this season, which it won.
• The Buccaneers have a 57.4% chance to win this contest, based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

Buccaneers Stats

Tampa Bay's Key Players

Offense

• Baker Mayfield has 1,088 passing yards in five games this year, averaging 217.6 per game with a 65.4% completion percentage and seven touchdowns against three interceptions.
• In addition to his passing statistics, Mayfield has 67 rushing yards (second on the Buccaneers), but no touchdowns.
• Mike Evans has 24 catches for 386 yards and three TDs. Through five games, he is averaging 4.8 catches and 77.2 yards per game.
• Rachaad White's output on the ground this season includes 232 yards and one TD. He is averaging 46.4 yards per game and 3.3 per attempt (38th in the NFL).
• White has 16 catches, 98 yards and zero TDs in the passing game.
• Chris Godwin has racked up 332 receiving yards without a touchdown with 27 catches on 37 targets. He is averaging 5.4 receptions and 66.4 yards per game.

Defense

• Over on defense, Antoine Winfield Jr. has 35 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and two sacks in 2023.
• Lavonte David has 40 tackles, 5.0 TFL, and two sacks this season. His tackle total leads the Buccaneers.
• Vita Vea has collected 19 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and 3.5 sacks this year.
• So far this season, Joe Tryon has 14 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and three sacks.

Atlanta Betting Info

• Atlanta has covered the spread in a matchup one time this season (1-5-0).
• The Falcons have been underdogs by 2.5 points or more two times this year and have not covered the spread once.
• This year, Atlanta games have hit the over just once.
• The Falcons have lost both games they've played as underdogs this season.
• Atlanta has been at least a +114 moneyline underdog two times this season, but lost all of those games.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Falcons have a 46.7% chance to win.

Falcons Stats

Atlanta's Key Players

Offense

• In six games played this year, Desmond Ridder has totaled 1,380 passing yards, while throwing six touchdowns against six interceptions and completing 64.0% of his passes.
• Ridder has also rushed for two touchdowns and 75 yards (third on the Falcons).
• Bijan Robinson averages 66.8 rushing yards per game over six games (401 total yards to rank 10th in the NFL), but is seeking his first rushing touchdown.
• Robinson also has 26 catches for 189 yards (fourth on the Falcons), with two receiving touchdowns. He has been targeted 32 times and averages 31.5 yards per game.
• In six games played this season, Drake London has 26 catches (4.3 receptions per game on 7.2 targets per game) for 329 yards and two receiving touchdowns.
• Tyler Allgeier has 242 rushing yards (second on the Falcons) and two rushing touchdowns, while averaging 40.3 yards per game and 3.2 per carry (39th in the NFL).

Defense

• In 2023, Jessie Bates III has recorded 1.0 TFL, 39 tackles, and three interceptions over six games.
• Kaden Elliss has 1.0 sack (fifth on the Falcons) to go with 2.0 TFL and 39 tackles.
• Richie Grant has 35 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and one pass defended in the 2023 campaign.
• David Onyemata has 1.5 sacks (second on the Falcons) as well as 3.0 TFL and 22 tackles.

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