Chiefs vs. Bills 2024 Championship Game Prediction, Odds, Picks - Jan 26

Updated Jan. 26, 2025 12:43 a.m. ET

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The Kansas City Chiefs are slim favorites (-1.5) in an AFC Championship game matchup against the Buffalo Bills. The predicted point total for the matchup is 48.5.

Keep up with the 2024 NFL season on FOX Sports.

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Chiefs vs. Bills Odds & Betting Lines

Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Bills (+1.5)
  
• Pick OU: Under (48.5)
  
• Prediction: Bills 24 - Chiefs 23

How to Watch Kansas City vs. Buffalo

• Game Date: Sunday, January 26, 2025
• Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
• Location: Kansas City, Missouri
• TV: CBS
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

Chiefs vs. Bills Recent Matchups

• Buffalo has a 3-2 record against Kansas City in their last five matchups.
• Kansas City has been outscored by 7 points in its last five tilts against Buffalo.

Kansas City Betting Info

• Kansas City was 7-10-0 against the spread during the season. It has an ATS record of 0-1-0 in the postseason.
• The Chiefs are 6-8 ATS this season (regular season and playoffs) when playing as at least 1.5-point favorites.
• In the regular season, seven of Kansas City's 17 games went over the point total. It is zero of one in terms of eclipsing the over/under in the playoffs.
• The Chiefs won all 14 of the games they were favored on the moneyline in the regular season. They are 1-0 as a moneyline favorite in the postseason.
• The implied probability for this matchup, considering the moneyline, gives the Chiefs a 55.6% chance to win.

Chiefs Stats

Kansas City's Key Players

Offense

• Patrick Mahomes ranks seventh in the NFL with 3,928 passing yards in 16 games this year, averaging 245.5 per game with a 67.5% completion percentage and 26 touchdowns (ninth in the NFL) against 11 interceptions.
• To go along with his passing stats, Mahomes has 307 rushing yards (third on the Chiefs), with two rushing touchdowns.
• Kareem Hunt's rushing output this season includes 728 yards and seven TDs. He's averaging 56 yards per game and 3.6 per attempt (43rd in the NFL).
• He's also hauled in 23 passes (on 32 targets) for 176 receiving yards with zero touchdowns. He's averaging 13.5 receiving yards and 1.8 catches per game.
• In the passing attack, Xavier Worthy, has totaled 638 receiving yards and six touchdowns after hauling in 59 balls on 98 targets. Per game, he's averaging 39.9 yards and 3.7 receptions in 16 games.
• Travis Kelce has 97 catches for 823 yards and three touchdowns. He's been targeted 133 times in the passing game, and averages 6.1 receptions and 51.4 yards through 16 games played.

Defense

• Over on defense, Nick Bolton has one interception to go with 106 tackles, 11 TFL, three sacks, and six passes defended in 2024.
• Drue Tranquill has 94 tackles, four TFL, and two sacks this season.
• Justin Reid has totaled 85 tackles, five TFL, and two interceptions this year.
• Chamarri Conner has two interceptions with 70 tackles, four TFL, one sack, and four passes defended.

Buffalo Betting Info

• Buffalo posted a record of 10-7-0 against the spread during the regular season. Against the spread in the playoffs, it is 2-0-0.
• As 1.5-point underdogs or greater in the regular season and playoffs, the Bills have two wins ATS (2-1).
• In 17 Buffalo games during the regular season, 11 of them hit the over. Meanwhile, zero of two games in the playoffs have hit the over.
• The Bills were underdogs four times in the regular season and won twice. They are 1-0 in the postseason.
• The implied probability of a win by the Bills based on the moneyline is 48.8%.

Bills Stats

Buffalo's Key Players

Offense

• Josh Allen is averaging 7.7 passing yards per attempt (eighth in the NFL) and 233.2 yards per game this year, completing 63.6% of his passes on the way to 3,731 total yards, 28 touchdowns (seventh in the NFL) and six interceptions through 16 games.
• Allen has also rushed for 12 touchdowns and 531 yards (second on the Bills).
• James Cook has 1,009 rushing yards (leading the Bills) and 16 rushing touchdowns, while averaging 63.1 yards per game and 4.9 per attempt (eighth in the NFL).
• Cook has added 32 receptions (2 per game) for 258 yards (16.1 per game) with two receiving touchdowns. He's been targeted 38 times in the passing game.
• So far this season, Khalil Shakir has caught 76 passes for 821 receiving yards with four touchdowns through the air. He has been targeted 100 total times and is averaging 5.1 receptions per game over 15 games played.
• Ray Davis has scored three touchdowns on the ground, while running for 442 total yards (3.9 per attempt and 26 per game).
• Davis has also caught 17 pass for 189 yards (10th on the Bills), with three receiving touchdowns. He's been targeted 19 times and averages 11.1 yards per game.

Defense

• In 2024, Gregory Rousseau has recorded eight sacks to go with 16 TFL and 53 tackles through 16 games.
• Dorian Williams has five TFL and 114 tackles.
• Terrel Bernard has 104 tackles, five TFL, one sack, and two interceptions in the 2024 campaign. He is second on the Bills in tackles.
• Damar Hamlin has intercepted two passes and also has 88 tackles, two TFL, and five passes defended.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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