Chiefs vs. Texans 2024 Divisional Round Prediction, Odds, Picks - Jan 18

Updated Jan. 16, 2025 8:43 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

In the AFC Divisional round of the 2024 NFL Playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs will face off against the Houston Texans. The Chiefs are solid favorites, expected to win by at least a touchdown (currently -7.5). An over/under of 41.5 points has been set for the matchup.

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Chiefs vs. Texans Odds & Betting Lines

Chiefs vs Texans Betting Information updated as of January 16, 2025, 3:33 p.m. ET.
Favorite	Spread	Favorite Spread Odds	Underdog Spread Odds	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds
Chiefs	-7.5	-125	-106	41.5	-108	-112

Chiefs vs. Texans Prediction & Pick

Pick ATS: Chiefs (-7.5)
Pick OU: Over (41.5)
Prediction: Chiefs 26 - Texans 17

How to Watch Kansas City vs. Houston

Game Date: Saturday, January 18, 2025
Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Location: Kansas City, Missouri
TV: ABC/ESPN
Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

Chiefs vs. Texans Recent Matchups

Over their last five meetings, Kansas City has totaled four wins against Houston.
Houston has been outscored by 35 points in its last five tilts versus Kansas City.

Kansas City Betting Info

Kansas City has seven wins in 17 games versus the spread this year.
The Chiefs have not covered the spread this season (0-6 ATS) when playing as at least 7.5-point favorites.
Kansas City has combined with its opponent to hit the over in 41.2% of its contests this year (seven times in 17 games with a set point total).
The Chiefs were listed as the moneyline favorite 14 times this season, and won each of those games.
The Chiefs have an implied win probability, based on the moneyline, of 82.0%.

Chiefs Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	222.4 (3,780)	14
Rush yards	105.3 (1,790)	22
Points scored	22.6 (385)	15
Pass yards against	218.8 (3,720)	18
Rush yards against	101.8 (1,731)	8
Points allowed	19.2 (326)	4

Kansas City's Key Players

Offense

Patrick Mahomes has passed for 3,928 yards (seventh in the NFL), 26 touchdowns (ninth in the NFL) and 11 interceptions this year. He is averaging 245.5 yards per game and 6.8 per attempt, while completing 67.5% of his attempts.
In addition to his passing stats, Mahomes also has 307 rushing yards (third on the Chiefs), with two rushing touchdowns.
Kareem Hunt has totaled 728 rushing yards with seven touchdowns (56 yards per game across 13 games). His 3.6 yards per attempt rank 43rd in the NFL.
He has also caught 23 passes (on 32 targets) for 176 receiving yards with zero touchdowns. He's averaging 13.5 receiving yards and 1.8 catches per game.
Xavier Worthy has six touchdown catches this season, and has 59 receptions for 638 yards on 98 targets, while averaging 3.7 catches and 39.9 yards per game.
Travis Kelce averages 6.1 receptions and 51.4 yards per game, and has 823 total receiving yards and 97 catches. He's gotten 133 total targets, and has caught three touchdown passes.

Defense

Over on defense, Nick Bolton has 106 tackles, 11 TFL, three sacks, and one interception in 2024.
Drue Tranquill has two sacks to go with four TFL and 94 tackles.
Justin Reid has recorded 85 tackles, five TFL, and two interceptions this year.
Chamarri Conner has one sack to go with four TFL, 70 tackles, and two interceptions this year.

Houston Betting Info

Houston beat the spread seven times in 17 games in the regular season. In the postseason, it has an ATS record of 1-0-0.
In 17 Houston games during the regular season, six of them hit the over. Meanwhile, one of one games in the playoffs have hit the over.
The Texans won one of the six games in which they were underdogs during the regular season, and are 1-0 in the postseason.
The implied probability of a win by the Texans based on the moneyline is 22.2%.

Texans Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	207.4 (3,526)	21
Rush yards	112.3 (1,909)	15
Points scored	21.9 (372)	19
Pass yards against	201.0 (3,417)	6
Rush yards against	114.0 (1,938)	11
Points allowed	21.9 (372)	14

Houston's Key Players

Offense

C.J. Stroud is averaging 7 passing yards per attempt (22nd in the NFL) and 219.2 yards per game this year, completing 63.2% of his passes on the way to 3,727 total yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions through 17 games.
He's added 233 yards on the ground (third on the Texans), while scoring zero rushing touchdowns. He's averaging 13.7 yards per game and 4.5 per attempt.
Joe Mixon averages 72.6 rushing yards per game through 14 games (1,016 total yards), while scoring 11 rushing touchdowns.
Mixon has added 36 receptions (2.6 per game) for 309 yards (22.1 per game) with one receiving touchdown. He's been targeted 52 times in the passing game.
Through 12 games played this season, Nico Collins has 68 catches (5.7 receptions per game on 8.2 targets per game) for 1,006 yards and seven receiving touchdowns.
Dalton Schultz has 53 catches for 532 yards and two receiving touchdowns. He averages 3.1 yards per game through 17 games and has been targeted 85 times.

Defense

In 2024, Danielle Hunter has recorded 46 tackles, 17 TFL, and 12 sacks over 16 games.
Will Anderson Jr. has 37 tackles, 16 TFL, 11 sacks, and two passes defended.
Henry To'o To'o has recorded 1.5 sacks as well as seven TFL, 103 tackles, and one interception in the 2024 season.
Azeez Al-Shaair has 70 tackles, seven TFL, two sacks, and four passes defended.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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