Cowboys vs. Patriots Prediction, Odds, Picks - Oct 1

Published Sep. 27, 2023 7:04 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The Dallas Cowboys (2-1) are considered favorites (-6.5) according to the oddsmakers ahead of their game against the New England Patriots (1-2) on October 1, 2023, starting at 4:25 PM ET, airing on FOX. An over/under of 43 points has been set for the matchup.

Cowboys vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Lines

Cowboys vs Patriots Betting Information updated as of September 27, 2023, 4:33 PM ET.
Favorite	Spread	Favorite Spread Odds	Underdog Spread Odds	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds
Cowboys	-6.5	-115	-105	43	-108	-112

Cowboys vs. Patriots Prediction & Pick

Pick ATS: Dallas (-6.5)
Pick OU: Under (43)
Prediction: Dallas 23 - New England 16

How to Watch Dallas vs. New England

Game Date: Sunday, October 1, 2023
Time: 4:25 PM ET
Venue: AT&T Stadium
Location: Arlington, Texas
TV: Watch on FOX

Cowboys vs. Patriots Recent Matchups

In their last five head-to-head matchups, New England has taken down Dallas five times.
In their last five head-to-head matchups, New England has compiled 123 points versus Dallas, while giving up only 58 points.

Dallas Betting Info

Dallas has covered the spread twice in 2023.
The Cowboys have covered the spread once when favored by 6.5 points or more this season (in two opportunities).
Dallas games this year have gone over the total in two out of three opportunities (66.7%).
When playing as moneyline favorites, the Cowboys have won 66.7% of the time (2-1).
Dallas has played as a moneyline favorite of -285 or shorter in only two games this season, and it split 1-1.
Based on this matchup's moneyline, the Cowboys' implied win probability is 74.0%.

Cowboys Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	207.3 (622)	18
Rush yards	147 (441)	8
Points scored	28.7 (86)	5
Pass yards against	130.7 (392)	2
Rush yards against	131.3 (394)	25
Points allowed	12.7 (38)	3

Dallas' Key Players

Offense

Tony Pollard's rushing stat line this season includes 264 yards (fifth in the NFL) and two TDs. He is averaging 88 yards per game and 4.3 per attempt (19th in the NFL).
Pollard has been targeted 14 times in the receiving game and has 12 catches (four per game) for 48 yards (16 per game) and zero TDs.
Dak Prescott has passed for 647 yards, three touchdowns and one interception this year. He is averaging 215.7 yards per game and 6.3 per attempt, while completing 67.6%.
He's also rushed for 44 yards (third on the Cowboys) without scoring a touchdown on the ground, while averaging 14.7 rushing yards per game.
In three games played, CeeDee Lamb is averaging 91 yards and 6.3 receptions per game to total 273 receiving yards (10th in the NFL) and 19 catches. He's been targeted 24 times, but has not caught a touchdown pass.
In the running game, Rico Dowdle averages 4.2 yards per attempt and 23.7 yards per game for 71 total rushing yards. He is still looking for his first rushing touchdown of the season.
Dowdle has been targeted four times and turned those targets into four catches, 42 yards and one TD.

Defense

On defense, Micah Parsons has four sacks (fourth in the NFL) to go with five TFL and 12 tackles in 2023.
Osa Odighizuwa has eight tackles, four TFL, and three sacks this season.
This season, Demarcus Lawrence has recorded two sacks (third on the Cowboys) to go with his four TFL and eight tackles.
Stephon Gilmore has 12 tackles and one interception on the season.

New England Betting Info

New England has gone 1-2-0 against the spread this year.
This year, New England games have hit the over just once.
The Patriots have lost both games they've played as underdogs this season.
New England has not entered a game this season with longer moneyline odds than +230.
The moneyline for this contest implies a 30.3% chance of a victory for the Patriots.

Patriots Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	235.7 (707)	11
Rush yards	107 (321)	14
Points scored	17.3 (52)	26
Pass yards against	177 (531)	5
Rush yards against	93.3 (280)	9
Points allowed	19.7 (59)	9

New England's Key Players

Offense

Mac Jones is averaging 6 passing yards per attempt (27th in the NFL) and 249.3 yards per game this year, completing 64.8% of his passes on the way to 748 total yards (ninth in the NFL), five touchdowns (seventh in the NFL) and two interceptions through three games.
On the ground, Jones has added 53 rushing yards (third on the Patriots).
Rhamondre Stevenson has 134 rushing yards (leading the Patriots) and one rushing touchdown, while averaging 44.7 yards per game and 2.9 per attempt (41st in the NFL).
Stevenson has added 10 receptions (3.3 per game) for 77 yards (25.7 per game), without a receiving touchdown. He's been targeted 13 times in the passing game.
This season, Kendrick Bourne has caught 14 passes for 139 receiving yards with two touchdowns through the air (sixth in the NFL). He has been targeted 25 total times and is averaging 4.7 receptions per game over three games played.
Hunter Henry has 125 receiving yards and two touchdowns (sixth in the NFL) from 13 receptions after receiving 18 targets.

Defense

In 2023, Matthew Judon has recorded four sacks to go with five TFL and 11 tackles through three games. He ranks fourth in the NFL in sacks.
Christian Gonzalez has totaled one sack in addition to his one TFL, 16 tackles, and one interception through three games.
Jabrill Peppers has 19 tackles and one TFL in the 2023 season. He is second on the Patriots in tackles.
Ja'Whaun Bentley's season stats include 21 tackles and two TFL in three games. He leads the Patriots in tackles.