Dolphins vs. Bills 2024 Prediction, Odds, Picks - Sep 12

Updated Sep. 12, 2024 4:43 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The Miami Dolphins (1-0) and Buffalo Bills (1-0) will face off in a matchup of two division rivals. The Dolphins are slight favorites (-2.5). The expected point total for the matchup is set at 48.

Keep up with the 2024 NFL season on FOX Sports.

Bills vs. Dolphins preview, Can Tua get over the hurdle? | The Herd

The Miami Dolphins will face off with the Buffalo Bills tonight, and Tua Tagovailoa is 1-6 against them in his career. He said that "last year is last year". Colin Cowherd makes his pick and discusses the matchup.

Dolphins vs. Bills Odds & Betting Lines

Dolphins vs Bills Betting Information updated as of September 12, 2024, 3:33 p.m. ET.
Favorite	Spread	Favorite Spread Odds	Underdog Spread Odds	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds
Dolphins	-2.5	-115	-105	48	-110	-110

Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction & Pick

Pick ATS: Bills (+2.5)
Pick OU: Over (48)
Prediction: Bills 26 - Dolphins 25

How to Watch Miami vs. Buffalo

Game Date: Thursday, September 12, 2024
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
TV: Amazon Prime Video
Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

Dolphins vs. Bills Recent Matchups

Buffalo holds a 4-1 record against Miami in their last five matchups.
In their last five head-to-head matchups, Buffalo has compiled 154 points against Miami, while allowing only 115 points.

Miami Betting Info

Miami won 10 games against the spread last season, failing to cover seven times.
The Dolphins went 7-2 ATS as 2.5-point favorites or more last season.
Miami and its opponent combined to hit the over in nine of 17 contests last season.
The Dolphins put together a 10-1 record in games they were favored on the moneyline last season (winning 90.9% of those games).
Miami went 8-1 in games it played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -142 or shorter (88.9%).
The Dolphins have an implied moneyline win probability of 58.7% in this contest.

Dolphins Stats (2023)

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	265.5 (4,514)	1
Rush yards	135.8 (2,308)	6
Points scored	29.2 (496)	2
Pass yards against	221.2 (3,761)	15
Rush yards against	97.1 (1,650)	7
Points allowed	23 (391)	22

Miami's Key Players

Offense

Tua Tagovailoa averaged 8.3 passing yards per attempt (second in the NFL) and 272 yards per game last year, completing 69.3% of his passes on the way to 4,624 total yards (first in the NFL), 29 touchdowns (fifth in the NFL) and 14 interceptions in 17 games.
Tyreek Hill had 1,799 receiving yards (first in the NFL) and 13 touchdowns (first in the NFL) on 119 receptions (second in the NFL), while being targeted 171 times.
Raheem Mostert rushed for 18 touchdowns last year and totaled 1,012 rushing yards (67.5 per game and 4.8 per attempt).
In addition to his rushing stats, Mostert pulled down 25 passes (on 32 targets) for 175 yards with three receiving touchdowns. He averaged 11.7 yards per game.
Devon Achane scored eight touchdowns on the ground, while running for 800 total yards (7.8 per attempt and 72.7 per game).
Achane also had 197 receiving yards (17.9 per game) on 27 catches (2.5 per game). He was targeted 37 times with three touchdown receptions.

Defense

Jordyn Brooks intercepted one pass and also had111 tackles, eight TFL, 4.5 sacks, and four passes defended for the Seahawks in 2023.
Zach Sieler registered 10 sacks in addition to his 11 TFL, 63 tackles, and one interception over 17 games.
David Long had 110 tackles, nine TFL, and one sack in the 2023 campaign.
Jordan Poyer's season stats for the Bills last season include 100 tackles, two TFL, and one sack in 16 games.

Buffalo Betting Info

Buffalo put together a 7-10-0 record against the spread last season.
The Bills were winless ATS (0-1) when playing as at least 2.5-point underdogs last season.
Last season, six Buffalo games went over the point total.
The Bills were underdogs in three games last season and won one (33.3%) of those contests.
Buffalo was not a bigger underdog last season than the +120 moneyline set for this game.
Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Bills have a 45.5% chance to win.

Bills Stats (2023)

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	244.4 (4,154)	8
Rush yards	130.1 (2,212)	7
Points scored	26.5 (451)	6
Pass yards against	196.6 (3,342)	7
Rush yards against	110.6 (1,880)	15
Points allowed	18.3 (311)	4

Buffalo's Key Players

Offense

Josh Allen passed for 4,306 yards last year (fourth in the NFL), with 29 TDs (fifth in the NFL) and 18 interceptions. He completed 66.5% of his passes, averaging 253.3 yards per game and 7.4 per attempt.
On the ground, Allen added 15 TDs and 524 yards.
James Cook averaged 66 rushing yards in 17 games (1,122 total yards to rank fourth in the NFL), and scored two rushing TDs.
Cook added 44 catches (2.6 per game) for 445 yards (26.2 per game) and four receiving TDs. He was targeted 54 times.
In 16 games for the Commanders last year, Curtis Samuel had 62 catches (3.9 per game on 5.7 targets per game) for 613 yards and four TDs.
Dalton Kincaid was targeted 91 times, resulting in 73 receptions for 673 yards .

Defense

Terrel Bernard put up 6.5 sacks to go along with 10 TFL, 143 tackles, and three interceptions in his 17 games in 2023.
Nicholas Morrow put up 93 tackles, 12 TFL, three sacks, and five passes defended for the Eagles.
Taron Johnson had 98 tackles, three TFL, and one sack in 2023.
Ed Oliver's production included one INT plus 51 tackles, 14 TFL, 9.5 sacks, and three passes defended in 16 games.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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