Dolphins vs. Commanders Prediction, Odds, Picks - Dec 3

Published Nov. 29, 2023 11:25 a.m. ET

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Having dropped two straight, the Washington Commanders (4-8) will face the Miami Dolphins (8-3). The Dolphins are solid favorites, expected to win by at least a touchdown (currently -9.5). The total for this one is set at 50 points.

Dolphins vs. Commanders Odds & Betting Lines

Dolphins vs. Commanders Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Miami (-9.5)
  
• Pick OU: Over (50)
  
• Prediction: Miami 32 - Washington 20

How to Watch Miami vs. Washington

• Game Date: Sunday, December 3, 2023
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: FedExField
• Location: Landover, Maryland
• TV: Watch on FOX

Dolphins vs. Commanders Recent Matchups

• In their last five head-to-head matchups, Miami has won against Washington three times.
• Over their last five head-to-head matchups, Miami has racked up 90 points, while Washington has compiled 75.

Miami Betting Info

• Miami is 7-4-0 against the spread this season.
• When playing as at least 9.5-point favorites this season, the Dolphins have an ATS record of 3-1.
• Miami games this year have gone over the total in six out of 11 opportunities (54.5%).
• The Dolphins were favored on the moneyline seven times this season, and won each of those games.
• Miami has won all four games it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -455 or shorter.
• Looking at this contest's moneyline, the Dolphins' implied win probability is 82.0%.

Dolphins Stats

Miami's Key Players

Offense

• Tyreek Hill has grabbed 88 passes (second in the NFL) on 120 targets for 1,324 total yards (first in the NFL) and 10 touchdowns. He is averaging 8.0 catches and 120.4 yards per game over 11 games played.
• Tua Tagovailoa has 3,177 passing yards (fourth in the NFL), 22 touchdowns (third in the NFL) and 10 interceptions this year. He has completed 69.8% of his passes, averaging 288.8 yards per game and 8.4 per attempt.
• Raheem Mostert's output on the ground this season includes 785 yards (second in the NFL) and 13 TDs. He is averaging 71.4 yards per game and 5.2 per attempt (third in the NFL).
• Mostert has recorded 20 receptions, 158 yards and two TDs in the passing game.
• Devon Achane has rushed for 461 yards, averaging 92.2 yards per game and scoring five touchdowns.
• Achane's 12 receiving targets have led to 10 receptions (2.0 per game) for 71 yards (14.2 per game) and two TDs.

Defense

• On defense, Bradley Chubb has 47 tackles, 7.0 TFL, six sacks, and one pass defended in 2023.
• Christian Wilkins has 42 tackles, 8.0 TFL, 6.5 sacks, and two passes defended.
• Jevon Holland has recorded 69 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and one interception this year. His tackle total leads the Dolphins.
• Jerome Baker has two interceptions while tacking on 65 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and three passes defended.

Washington Betting Info

• Washington has covered the spread in a game five times this season (5-6-1).
• The Commanders have covered the spread once this season when underdogs by 9.5 points or more (in two chances).
• Games involving Washington have hit the over on seven occasions this year.
• This season, the Commanders have won three out of the eight games in which they've been the underdog.
• Washington has played as an underdog of +350 or more once this season and lost that game.
• The sportsbooks' moneyline implies a 22.2% chance of a victory for the Commanders.

Commanders Stats

Washington's Key Players

Offense

• Sam Howell is averaging 6.9 passing yards per attempt (20th in the NFL) and 278.3 yards per game this year, completing 66.5% of his passes on the way to 3,339 total yards (first in the NFL), 18 touchdowns (10th in the NFL) and 13 interceptions through 12 games.
• On the ground, Howell has added three rushing touchdowns and 222 rushing yards (second on the Commanders).
• Brian Robinson Jr. has scored five rushing touchdowns, while totaling 611 rushing yards (4.0 per attempt and 50.9 per game).
• Robinson has added 29 receptions (2.4 per game) for 326 yards (27.2 per game) with three receiving touchdowns. He's been targeted 36 times in the passing game.
• Terry McLaurin has registered 694 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 60 receptions, while being targeted 97 times this season.
• Jahan Dotson has 435 receiving yards and four touchdowns from 42 receptions after getting 69 targets.

Defense

• Kamren Curl has 93 tackles, 3.0 TFL, one sack, and four passes defended in 2023.
• Jamin Davis has registered 3.0 sacks in addition to his 6.0 TFL, 81 tackles, and one interception over 12 games.
• Benjamin St-Juste has intercepted one pass on top of 54 tackles, 1.0 TFL, one sack, and 15 passes defended during the 2023 season.
• Da'Ron Payne has totaled 2.0 sacks (fourth on the Commanders) as well as 9.0 TFL and 38 tackles.

Cowboys stuff Commanders 45-10 on Thanksgiving for third straight win | Undisputed

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