Dolphins vs. Patriots 2024 Prediction, Odds, Picks - Oct 6

Published Oct. 4, 2024 4:43 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The Miami Dolphins (1-3) and New England Patriots (1-3) will play each other, with both teams on losing streaks -- the Dolphins three in a row, the Patriots three in a row. Miami is a slim favorite (-1). The predicted point total for the matchup is 36.

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Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Lines

Dolphins vs Patriots Betting Information updated as of October 4, 2024, 3:33 p.m. ET.
Favorite	Spread	Favorite Spread Odds	Underdog Spread Odds	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds
Dolphins	-1	-103	-117	36	-108	-112

Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction & Pick

Pick ATS: Patriots (+1)
Pick OU: Under (36)
Prediction: Patriots 28 - Dolphins 8

How to Watch Miami vs. New England

Game Date: Sunday, October 6, 2024
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium
Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
TV: Watch on FOX
Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

Dolphins vs. Patriots Recent Matchups

In their past five head-to-head matchups, Miami has won against New England four times.
New England has been outscored by 41 points in its last five tilts versus Miami.

Miami Betting Info

Miami has not covered the spread yet this season.
The Dolphins have been favored by 1 point or more this season three times and failed to cover in all three.
Miami games this year have gone over the total in one out of four opportunities (25%).
When playing as moneyline favorites, the Dolphins are 1-2, winning 33.3% of the time.
Looking at this matchup's moneyline, the Dolphins' implied win probability is 52.8%.

Dolphins Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	187.3 (749)	23
Rush yards	97.8 (391)	24
Points scored	11.3 (45)	32
Pass yards against	162.5 (650)	5
Rush yards against	119.5 (478)	16
Points allowed	25.8 (103)	26

Miami's Key Players

Offense

Devon Achane's rushing output this season includes 165 yards and one TD. He's averaging 41.3 yards per game and 3.1 per attempt (48th in the NFL).
He has also hauled in 20 passes (on 22 targets) for 187 receiving yards with one touchdown. He's averaging 46.8 receving yards and 5.0 catches per game.
Tyreek Hill has 17 receptions for 217 yards and one TD. Through four games, he is averaging 4.3 catches and 54.3 yards per game.
In the passing attack, Jaylen Waddle, has totaled 212 receiving yards without a touchdown after pulling down 17 balls on 20 targets. Per game, he's averaging 53.0 yards and 4.3 receptions through four games.
Tyler Huntley has 96 passing yards, zero touchdowns and zero interceptions this year. He has completed 63.6% of his passes, averaging 96.0 yards per game and 4.4 per attempt.
He has tacked on 40 rushing yards (40.0 per game) and one touchdown on the ground.

Defense

Over on the defensive side, Jordyn Brooks has 32 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and one sack in 2024.
Calais Campbell has 2.0 sacks (first on the Dolphins) as well as 4.0 TFL and 12 tackles.
Emmanuel Ogbah has put up 14 tackles, 3.0 TFL, one sack, and one interception this year.
So far this season, David Long has 21 tackles and 2.0 TFL. He's second on the Dolphins in tackles.

New England Betting Info

New England is 2-2-0 against the spread this season.
The Patriots have covered the spread twice this year when underdogs by 1 point or more (in four chances).
New England games have gone over the total twice this year.
This season, the Patriots have won one out of the four games in which they've been the underdog.
Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Patriots have a 51.9% chance to win.

Patriots Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	112.3 (449)	32
Rush yards	126.5 (506)	12
Points scored	13 (52)	31
Pass yards against	254 (1,016)	27
Rush yards against	99.3 (397)	9
Points allowed	21.8 (87)	15

New England's Key Players

Offense

Rhamondre Stevenson averages 66.8 rushing yards per game this year (267 total yards), while scoring two rushing touchdowns.
Jacoby Brissett has 536 passing yards, two touchdowns and one interception. His completion percentage is 60.4% and he averages 134.0 yards per game and 5.3 per attempt.
Brissett also has 41 rushing yards (third on the Patriots).
This season in four games, Antonio Gibson has racked up 155 rushing yards (second on the Patriots), but has not scored a rushing touchdown. He averages 38.8 yards per game and 5.3 per attempt (10th in the NFL).
In addition to his rushing stats, Gibson has pulled down seven passes (on eight targets) for 82 yards (third on the Patriots). He averages 20.5 yards per game.
Hunter Henry has 14 catches for 148 yards without a receiving touchdown. He averages 3.5 yards per game in four games and has been targeted 21 times.

Defense

So far in 2024, Keion White has 4.0 sacks to go with 4.0 TFL and 20 tackles through four games. He ranks fifth in the NFL in sacks.
Kyle Dugger has 18 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and one sack.
Jonathan Jones has 19 tackles in the 2024 season. He is fifth on the Patriots in tackles.
Jabrill Peppers' season stats include 22 tackles and one interception through four games. He is second on the Patriots in tackles.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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