Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction, Odds, Picks - Oct 29

Published Oct. 25, 2023 1:06 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The Miami Dolphins (5-2) are solid favorites -- expected to win by at least a touchdown (currently -9.5) -- against the New England Patriots (2-5) in a matchup of two division rivals. The game has an over/under of 47 points.

Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Lines

Dolphins vs Patriots Betting Information updated as of October 23, 2023, 6:33 PM ET.
Favorite	Spread	Favorite Spread Odds	Underdog Spread Odds	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds
Dolphins	-9.5	-112	-108	47	-108	-112

Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction & Pick

Pick ATS: Miami (-9.5)
Pick OU: Over (47)
Prediction: Miami 32 - New England 18

How to Watch Miami vs. New England

Game Date: Sunday, October 29, 2023
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
TV: Watch on CBS

Dolphins vs. Patriots Recent Matchups

Miami owns a 3-2 record against New England in their last five matchups.
In their last five head-to-head matchups, New England has tallied 114 points versus Miami, while giving up only 92 points.

Miami Betting Info

Miami has played seven games, posting five wins against the spread.
The Dolphins have been favored by 9.5 points or more two times this season, and covered the spread in both.
Miami games this year have gone over the total in four out of seven opportunities (57.1%).
The Dolphins were favored on the moneyline four times this season, and won all of those games.
Miami has played as a moneyline favorite of -470 or shorter in just two games this season, and it won both.
The implied probability in this matchup, considering the moneyline, gives the Dolphins an 82.5% chance to win.

Dolphins Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	300.0 (2,100)	1
Rush yards	162.3 (1,136)	1
Points scored	34.3 (240)	1
Pass yards against	233.0 (1,631)	20
Rush yards against	112.3 (786)	19
Points allowed	26.7 (187)	27

Miami's Key Players

Offense

Tyreek Hill has brought in 53 passes (third in the NFL) on 74 targets for 902 total yards (first in the NFL) and seven touchdowns. He is averaging 7.6 catches and 128.9 yards per game over seven games played.
Tua Tagovailoa has 2,092 passing yards (first in the NFL), 15 touchdowns (second in the NFL) and six interceptions this year. He has completed 71.2% of his attempts, averaging 298.9 yards per game and 9.1 per attempt.
Raheem Mostert has 474 rushing yards (fifth in the NFL) with nine touchdowns (67.7 yards per game through seven games).
Mostert has gotten 23 targets in the passing game and has 19 catches (2.7 per game) for 151 yards (21.6 per game) and two TDs.
Jaylen Waddle has 30 catches for 359 yards and two touchdowns. He's been targeted 41 times in the passing game, and averages 5.0 receptions and 59.8 yards in six games played.

Defense

On defense for the Dolphins, Bradley Chubb has powered the unit with 34 tackles, 6.0 TFL, and four sacks in 2023.
Jevon Holland has 51 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and three passes defended.
This season, Andrew Van Ginkel has recorded 4.0 sacks (first on the Dolphins) to go with 7.0 TFL and 31 tackles.
So far this season, David Long has 50 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and one sack.

New England Betting Info

New England has covered the spread in a game two times this season (2-5-0).
Games involving New England have hit the over twice this season.
The Patriots have been underdogs in five games this season and won one (20%) of those contests.
New England has not been a bigger underdog this season than the +360 moneyline set for this game.
The Patriots have a 21.7% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

Patriots Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	208.9 (1,462)	21
Rush yards	85.4 (598)	27
Points scored	14.4 (101)	30
Pass yards against	210.6 (1,474)	12
Rush yards against	100.7 (705)	13
Points allowed	25.3 (177)	24

New England's Key Players

Offense

Mac Jones has thrown for 1,480 yards this year, with seven touchdowns and seven interceptions. He is completing 66.7% of his passes while averaging 211.4 yards per game and 6.4 per attempt.
Rhamondre Stevenson has 268 rushing yards (leading the Patriots) and two rushing touchdowns, while averaging 38.3 yards per game and 3.1 per attempt (39th in the NFL).
Stevenson has also collected 162 receiving yards (23.1 per game) on 23 catches (3.3 per game). He's been targeted 30 times and is still seeking his first receiving touchdown.
In seven games played this season, Kendrick Bourne has 34 catches (4.9 receptions per game on 7.3 targets per game) for 370 yards and three receiving touchdowns.
Ezekiel Elliott has 224 rushing yards (second on the Patriots) and two rushing touchdowns, while averaging 32.0 yards per game and 3.7 per attempt (34th in the NFL).

Defense

In 2023, Jabrill Peppers has put up 2.0 TFL, 44 tackles, and one interception over seven games.
Ja'Whaun Bentley has 1.0 sack (fourth on the Patriots) to go with 3.0 TFL and 49 tackles.
Myles Bryant has 37 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and one sack in the 2023 season. He is fifth on the Patriots in tackles.
Kyle Dugger's stats include 47 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and two passes defended in seven games