Jaguars vs. Falcons Prediction, Odds, Picks - Oct 1

Jaguars vs. Falcons Prediction, Odds, Picks - Oct 1

Published Sep. 27, 2023 1:05 p.m. ET
Data Skrive

The Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) are considered favorites (-3) according to the oddsmakers ahead of their game versus the Atlanta Falcons (2-1) on October 1, 2023, starting at 9:30 AM ET, airing on ESPN+. The game has an over/under of 43 points.

Jaguars vs. Falcons Odds & Betting Lines

Jaguars vs Falcons Betting Information updated as of September 26, 2023, 6:33 PM ET.
Favorite Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds
Jaguars -3 -115 -105 43 -110 -110

Jaguars vs. Falcons Prediction & Pick

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  • Pick ATS: Jacksonville (-3)
  • Pick OU: Under (43)
  • Prediction: Jacksonville 22 - Atlanta 18

How to Watch Jacksonville vs. Atlanta

  • Game Date: Sunday, October 1, 2023
  • Time: 9:30 AM ET
  • Venue: Wembley Stadium
  • Location: London, United Kingdom
  • TV: Watch on ESPN+

Jaguars vs. Falcons Recent Matchups

  • Atlanta has a 4-1 record against Jacksonville in their last five matchups.
  • In their last five head-to-head matchups, Atlanta has compiled 116 points against Jacksonville, while surrendering only 70 points.

Jacksonville Betting Info

  • Jacksonville covered eight times in 17 chances against the spread last season.
  • The Jaguars had one win ATS (1-3) as a 3-point favorite or more last year.
  • Last season, eight Jacksonville games went over the point total.
  • The Jaguars won two of the five games they were favored on the moneyline last season (40%).
  • Jacksonville had a record of 2-1 when playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -162 or shorter (66.7%).
  • Based on this game's moneyline, the Jaguars' implied win probability is 61.8%.

Jaguars Stats (2022)

Stat Average (Total) Rank
Pass yards 232.9 (3,959) 10
Rush yards 124.5 (2,116) 14
Points scored 23.8 (404) 10
Pass yards against 238.5 (4,055) 28
Rush yards against 114.8 (1,951) 12
Points allowed 20.6 (350) 12

Jacksonville's Key Players

Offense

  • Trevor Lawrence averaged 7.0 passing yards per attempt (18th in the NFL) and 241.9 yards per game last year, completing 66.3% of his passes on the way to 4,113 total yards (ninth in the NFL), 25 touchdowns (eighth in the NFL) and eight interceptions in 17 games.
  • On the ground, Lawrence added five rushing touchdowns and 291 rushing yards.
  • Travis Etienne scored five rushing touchdowns, while totaling 1,125 rushing yards (5.1 per carry and 66.2 per game).
  • Etienne also picked up 316 receiving yards (18.6 per game) on 35 catches (2.1 per game). He was targeted 45 times and is still looking for his first receiving touchdown.
  • Christian Kirk put up 1,108 receiving yards and eight touchdowns on 84 receptions while being targeted 133 times last year.
  • Zay Jones had 823 receiving yards and five touchdowns from 82 receptions on 121 targets.

Defense

  • Foyesade Oluokun's 2022 showing included 184 tackles, 12.0 TFL, and two sacks over 17 games.
  • Rayshawn Jenkins' stat sheet included three interceptions as well as 112 tackles, 3.0 TFL, one sack, and 12 passes defended.
  • Josh Allen recorded 7.0 sacks as well as 11.0 TFL and 57 tackles in the 2022 season.
  • Devin Lloyd put up 115 tackles and three interceptions over 17 games.

Atlanta Betting Info

  • Atlanta covered nine times in 17 games with a spread last year.
  • The Falcons had an ATS record of 5-3 as underdogs of 3 points or greater last year.
  • Last season, seven Atlanta games hit the over.
  • Last season, the Falcons won three out of the 12 games, or 25%, in which they were the underdog.
  • Last season, Atlanta won one of its eight games when it was the underdog by at least +136 on the moneyline.
  • Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Falcons have a 42.4% chance to win.

Falcons Stats (2022)

Stat Average (Total) Rank
Pass yards 158.8 (2,699) 31
Rush yards 159.9 (2,718) 3
Points scored 21.5 (365) 15
Pass yards against 231.9 (3,942) 25
Rush yards against 130.2 (2,214) 23
Points allowed 22.7 (386) 23

Atlanta's Key Players

Offense

  • Tyler Allgeier averaged 64.7 yards rushing last season (1,035 total yards) while scoring three rushing TDs.
  • Allgeier's offensive contributions included 16 catches (1.0 per game) on 17 targets for 139 yards (8.7 per game). He had one receiving TD.
  • Cordarrelle Patterson averaged 53.5 rushing yards in 13 games (695 total yards), and scored eight rushing TDs.
  • For the Commanders last season, Taylor Heinicke passed for 1,859 yards, 12 TDs and had six INTs. He completed 62.2% of his attempts, averaging 206.6 yards per game and 7.2 per attempt.
  • Heinicke also ran for one TD and 96 yards.
  • Drake London was targeted 117 times, resulting in 72 receptions for 866 yards .

Defense

  • Richie Grant recorded 3.0 TFL, 122 tackles, and two interceptions in his 17 games in 2022.
  • With the Saints last year, Kaden Elliss had 7.0 sacks plus 7.0 TFL and 74 tackles.
  • Grady Jarrett had 61 tackles, 12.0 TFL, six sacks, and three passes defended in 2022.
  • Jaylinn Hawkins picked off two passes to go with 82 tackles and six passes defended.
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