Jim Harbaugh has best track record of 8 new head coaches but Morris has better shot at playoffs

Updated Aug. 5, 2024 4:57 p.m. ET

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At least one NFL team with a new coach has reached the playoffs every year since the 2006 season.

DeMeco Ryans took over in Houston last year and led the Texans from worst to first in the AFC South. With AP Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud and Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson Jr. leading the way, the Texans advanced to the divisional round.

In 2022, a record five first-year coaches guided their teams to the playoffs.

Eight teams enter this season with a new man in charge. Of those eight new head coaches, Jim Harbaugh has the proven track record to make the most immediate impact. Harbaugh returned to the NFL after leading Michigan to a national championship, bringing with him a 44-19-1 career record in four seasons with the 49ers from 2011-14.

But Harbaugh’s Chargers are in a tough division. The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs own the AFC West. They’ve won it eight straight years.

The Chargers won’t have quarterback Justin Herbert for at least the next two weeks due to a foot injury so Harbaugh’s job is even more difficult.

Here’s all the new coaches aiming to win now.

JIM HARBAUGH

The Chargers have reached the playoffs just once in Herbert’s four season. They blew a 27-0 lead against Jacksonville in a wild-card game two years ago. Brandon Staley was fired last season before the team finished 5-12.

Harbaugh has a winning pedigree and the Chargers should rebound from a poor season. Still, they’re not ready to dethrone the Chiefs. Nine wins and a chance at a wild-card berth would be a positive first step.

BRIAN CALLAHAN

The Tennessee Titans fired Mike Vrabel after consecutive losing seasons and replaced him with Callahan, who was Cincinnati’s offensive coordinator. He won’t have Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to work with in Tennessee. Callahan’s top priority is to develop quarterback Will Levis. The Titans added playmakers in free agency, signing wide receiver Calvin Ridley and running back Tony Pollard.

Callahan, who relinquished play-calling duties to Zac Taylor last season with the Bengals, has a tough task in a division with the Texans, Jaguars and Colts. Six or seven wins is the expectation.

DAVE CANALES

After helping Baker Mayfield revive his career in Tampa Bay in one season as the Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator, Canales is aiming to engineer another dramatic turnaround in Carolina. The Panthers fired Frank Reich just 11 games into his first season and finished 2-15 in 2023. They didn’t even have the No. 1 pick as consolation, having traded it a year earlier in the package that brought Bryce Young to Carolina.

If Canales can get the most out of Young the way he did with Mayfield in Tampa Bay and Geno Smith in Seattle, the Panthers will be competitive. They bolstered the offensive line to protect Young and added wide receivers Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette. Six or seven wins would be a major improvement.

MIKE MACDONALD

The Seattle Seahawks went 9-8 last season before Pete Carroll’s abrupt departure. Macdonald, who was Baltimore’s defensive coordinator, inherits a team that came close to another playoff berth. Still, the Seahawks could regress this season.

Smith didn’t match his 2022 breakout production and Sam Howell came in to provide competition and insurance. The offense has several playmakers and the defense is where Macdonald will make the most impact. He has a strong front to work with bolstered by the addition of first-round pick Byron Murphy. Seattle will need Smith to play like he did two years ago to surpass seven or eight wins.

JEROD MAYO

Bill Belichick’s time with the Patriots has ended and no one is likely to match what he accomplished in two decades, winning six Super Bowls. But Mayo’s immediate goal is to bring respectability back to New England. The gold standard of franchises hasn’t been the same since Tom Brady left after the 2019 season.

The Patriots hope Drake Maye, the No. 3 pick in the draft, will be their franchise QB. Maye has veteran Jacoby Brissett to help him through his rookie year. Mayo grew up in the Patriot Way, spending his entire eight-year NFL career in New England before joining Belichick’s staff as linebackers coach. He might have the toughest time winning right away of all the new coaches.

RAHEEM MORRIS

The Atlanta Falcons chose Morris over Belichick, giving him a second opportunity to run a team. Morris was 17-31 in three seasons with the Buccaneers from 2009-11 and 4-7 as interim coach in Atlanta in 2020.

He takes over a team that made major moves to get in position to contend in the NFC South. The Falcons gave QB Kirk Cousins $100 million guaranteed in free agency, drafted QB Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick and added wide receiver Darnell Mooney.

But the team didn’t strengthen a weak defense outside of hiring Morris. They’ll need Cousins, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Mooney to score a lot of points. In a division that hasn’t seen a 10-game winner since 2021, the Falcons could take it at 9-8.

ANTONIO PIERCE

A 5-4 finish after replacing Josh McDaniels helped Pierce get the job in Las Vegas after serving in an interim role. Players love him and Pierce brought out the best in many of his guys.

He doesn’t have a franchise QB, however. Second-year pro Aidan O’Connell and veteran Gardner Minshew are competing in camp. And 2022 All-Pro running back Josh Jacobs left for Green Bay.

The defense under Pierce stepped up in the second half last season and should be even better. Still, it may not be enough to reach last year’s win total of eight.

DAN QUINN

The Washington Commanders ended up with Quinn after a lengthy coaching search. Quinn, who spent the past three seasons as the defensive coordinator in Dallas, was 43-42 as Atlanta’s head coach. He would’ve won a Super Bowl if Brady didn’t lead the Patriots back from a 28-3 deficit in 2017.

Quinn got a potential franchise QB in Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 pick in the draft. The Commanders had an impressive offseason, adding running back Austin Ekeler, center Tyler Biadasz, linebacker Bobby Wagner, defensive end Dorance Armstrong and others.

The Commandeers should be competitive in a tough NFC East, but are projected to win only six or seven games.

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AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl

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Baker Mayfield

Tony Pollard

Calvin Ridley

Tee Higgins

Joe Burrow

Justin Herbert

Washington Commanders

Atlanta Falcons

Seattle Seahawks

Tennessee Titans

Kansas City Chiefs

Michigan Wolverines

Los Angeles Chargers

Houston Texans