Lions vs. Packers Prediction, Odds, Picks - Sep 28

Published Sep. 25, 2023 1:03 a.m. ET

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The Detroit Lions (2-1) are slim favorites (-1) against the Green Bay Packers (2-1) in a battle of two division rivals. The over/under for this one is set at 45 points.

Lions vs. Packers Odds & Betting Lines

Lions vs. Packers Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Green Bay (+1)
  
• Pick OU: Over (45)
  
• Prediction: Green Bay 24 - Detroit 23

How to Watch Detroit vs. Green Bay

• Game Date: Thursday, September 28, 2023
• Time: 8:15 PM ET
• Venue: Lambeau Field
• Location: Green Bay, Wisconsin
• TV: Watch on Amazon Prime Video

Lions vs. Packers Recent Matchups

• Detroit holds a 3-2 record against Green Bay in their last five matchups.
• In their last five head-to-head matchups, Detroit has racked up 108 points against Green Bay, while surrendering only 71 points.

Detroit Betting Info

• Detroit went 12-4-1 ATS last season.
• The Lions had an ATS record of 3-2 as 1-point favorites or greater last year.
• Detroit games went over the point total 10 out of 17 times last season.
• The Lions won 60% of the games last season when they were the moneyline favorite (3-2).
• Detroit went 3-2 when playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -118 or shorter (60%).
• The implied moneyline probability in this matchup gives the Lions a 54.1% chance to win.

Lions Stats (2022)

Detroit's Key Players

Offense

• Jared Goff passed for 4,438 yards last year (to rank sixth in the NFL), with 29 touchdowns (fifth in the NFL) and seven interceptions. He completed 65.1% of his passes while averaging 261.1 yards per game and 7.6 per attempt.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown had 106 catches (seventh in the NFL) for 1,161 yards and six receiving touchdowns. He was targeted 146 times and averaged 6.6 receptions per game over 16 games played.
• Last season over 16 games with the Bears, David Montgomery churned out 801 rushing yards and scored five rushing touchdowns. He averaged 50.1 yards per game and 4.0 per carry (36th in the NFL).
• Montgomery helped in the passing game, amassing 316 receiving yards (19.8 per game) on 34 catches (2.1 per game), while being targeted 40 times. He had one receiving touchdown.
• Marvin Jones Jr. had 529 receiving yards and three touchdowns from 46 receptions on 81 targets for the Jaguars.

Defense

• Alex Anzalone's 2022 output included 125 tackles, 7.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and one interception in 17 games.
• Aidan Hutchinson had three interceptions on top of 52 tackles, 9.0 TFL, 9.5 sacks, and three passes defended.
• Over the 2022 campaign, Kerby Joseph had 74 tackles and four interceptions in 17 games.
• Malcolm Rodriguez's stat sheet included 83 tackles, 8.0 TFL, one sack, and two passes defended in 16 games

Green Bay Betting Info

• Green Bay won eight games against the spread last year, failing to cover nine times.
• As 1-point underdogs or greater, the Packers went 4-2 against the spread last year.
• Last season, eight Green Bay games hit the over.
• The Packers were underdogs in six games last season and won three (50%) of those contests.
• Last season, Green Bay won three of its six games when it was the underdog by at least -102 on the moneyline.
• The implied probability of a win by the Packers, based on the moneyline, is 50.5%.

Packers Stats (2022)

Green Bay's Key Players

Offense

• Aaron Jones averaged 65.9 yards rushing last year (1,121 total yards to rank 10th in the NFL,) while scoring two rushing TDs.
• Aaron Jones also was a part of the passing game with 395 receiving yards (23.2 per game) on 59 receptions (3.5 per game), targeted 72 times. He had five receiving TDs.
• A.J. Dillon had 770 yards rushing and seven rushing TDs, averaging 45.3 yards per game and 4.1 per carry (34th in NFL).
• Dillon added 28 catches (1.6 per game) for 206 yards (12.1 per game), without a receiving touchdown. He was targeted 43 times.
• In 14 games last season, Christian Watson had 41 catches (2.9 per game on 4.7 targets per game) for 611 yards and seven TDs.
• Romeo Doubs was targeted 67 times, resulting in 42 receptions for 425 yards .

Defense

• Quay Walker had 119 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and seven passes defended in 2022.
• Rasul Douglas had 1.0 sack plus 4.0 TFL, 76 tackles, and four interceptions.
• Jonathan Owens had 125 tackles, one sack, and four passes defended during the 2022 season for the Texans.
• Preston Smith's production included 59 tackles, 9.0 TFL, 8.5 sacks, and one pass defended in 16 games.

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