NFL has a record number of playoff clinches and bottom dwellers with 3 weeks to go

Updated Dec. 18, 2024 6:10 a.m. ET

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There might by more intrigue in the race for the No. 1 pick than in the race to make the playoffs in the final three weeks.

There's already a record number of teams that have clinched a playoff spot with three weeks to play in the NFL season and a record number of teams with three or fewer wins after Week 15 as a league built on parity has become one of haves and have-nots.

Seven playoff spots have been clinched at this point in the season for the first time ever and the 50% of playoff berths filled are the most with three weeks remaining, according to Sportradar. The previous high since the 1970 merger was 42.9% in 2022 when six spots were clinched with three weeks to play.

The entire AFC field could be determined by the end of the games on Sunday afternoon. Baltimore and Denver can clinch spots with wins, while the Chargers need a win and losses by Indianapolis and Miami.

The NFC could have five of the seven playoff spots clinched by the end of this week if Washington beats Philadelphia on Sunday and Green Bay beats New Orleans on Monday night.

But the competition for the No. 1 pick is fierce with a record seven teams having three wins or fewer. There have been three seasons of at least 16 games with six teams with three or fewer wins after 15 weeks with it also happening in 2014, 2008 and 1991.

Las Vegas and the New York Giants have the inside track with 2-12 records and the top pick could come down to strength of schedule if both teams lose out.

There are five other teams — Carolina, Jacksonville, New England, Cleveland and Tennessee — tied at 3-11 and in position to get the No. 1 pick if the Giants and Raiders both win.

Up and down

The back-and-forth shootout between Detroit and Buffalo put Lions quarterback Jared Goff and the Bills in select company.

Goff became the first player in NFL history to lose a game after throwing for at least 400 yards and five TDs with no interceptions in Detroit's 48-42 loss.

Five weeks after becoming the first quarterback in 12 years to win a game after throwing five interceptions, Goff ended up on the losing side of a five-touchdown game. He's the fourth quarterback ever to do both and the only one who did it in the same season.

Matt Ryan and Tony Romo pulled off the feat once, while George Blanda won three games with five interceptions, including the 1961 AFL title game, and lost twice after throwing at least five TD passes.

Since 1950, quarterbacks are now 200-23 when throwing at least five TD passes and 19-191-5 when throwing five or more interceptions.

The Bills have been on a roller coaster of their own, having lost a game in Week 14 to the Rams when they scored 42 points and then won a game against Detroit when they allowed 42.

Buffalo joined the 1966 Giants as the only teams with back-to-back games when both teams scored at least 40 points in the game. New York lost both of those games and the Bills joined the 1983 Packers as the only teams in NFL history to win a game when allowing at least 40 points and lose a game scoring at least 40 in the same season.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen also became the second quarterback with back-to-back games with at least 400 yards rushing and passing, at least four total TDs and no turnovers. Joe Burrow did it in 2021.

Bye-bye bye advantage?

Week 15 was the final one of the regular season that featured teams coming off byes with six teams playing on extra rest on Sunday.

Those teams went 4-2 with Baltimore, Denver, Houston and Washington getting wins, while Indianapolis and New England lost.

For the season, coming off the bye proved to be of little benefit with teams playing after a week off going 15-17 with the extra rest. That marked the second time in the last 10 seasons that teams coming off the bye had a losing record, with teams going 11-21 in 2019.

The advantage of the bye has lessened since the 2011 CBA limited the amount of practice time teams could have during the week off. From 2002-10, teams had a .557 win percentage following the bye week compared to .523 since 2011.

Slop fest

On the NFL's most turnover-happy day in eight years, the Tennessee Titans and Cincinnati Bengals took the sloppy play to new lows.

The Titans gave the ball away six times and the Bengals committed four turnovers in Cincinnati's 37-27 win for the first 10-giveaway game in the NFL since Week 2 of the 2007 season when Detroit and Minnesota each had five in a 20-17 overtime win for the Lions.

The game included one of two fumbles this week by a player just before he crossed the goal line and contributed to the 51 turnovers overall on Sunday for the most on any day since there were also 51 on Dec. 11, 2016.

The sloppy play at Tennessee was about more than turnovers with the Bengals getting penalized 14 times and the Titans 12. That made the game the first since the 1970 merger with at least 10 turnovers and 25 penalties.

Caleb Williams' struggles

Caleb WIlliams entered the league with the fanfare of being the answer to Chicago's long search for a franchise quarterback. It hasn't worked out that way so far for the No. 1 overall pick.

Williams lost his eighth straight start for the Bears on Monday night against Minnesota to tie Trevor Lawrence (2021) for the second longest losing streak for a rookie QB picked first overall since the start of the common draft era in 1967. Troy Aikman lost all 11 starts he made as a rookie for Dallas in 1989 before going on to win three Super Bowls.

Williams has lost those games despite not throwing an interception in any of the games for an NFL rookie record 286 straight passes without a pick. That's the most consecutive losses for any QB since the merger without throwing an interception, topping the previous high of five by Jeff George (1993-94) and Cody Kessler (2016).

The Bears were officially eliminated from playoff contention in Week 15, leaving Andrew Luck as the only quarterback picked first in the common draft era to start a playoff game as a rookie.

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AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/NFL

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