Pro Picks: 49ers will edge Ravens on Christmas night in a matchup of the NFL's current No. 1 seeds

Updated Dec. 21, 2023 11:25 p.m. ET

Associated Press

Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.

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The NFL’s two current No. 1 seeds facing off in a prime-time matchup on Christmas night was the best present schedule-makers could’ve given fans.

A potential Super Bowl preview featuring the San Francisco 49ers (11-3) and Baltimore Ravens (11-3) caps Week 16 and will have a major impact on playoff positioning.

The 49ers, who have won six in a row, have more margin for error because they have tiebreaker advantages over a trio of 10-4 teams. They need to win two of the final three to secure a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

The Ravens still haven’t wrapped up the AFC North and face Miami (10-4) next week, so a loss would be a setback.

The Niners boast a pair of MVP candidates in Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey. Lamar Jackson could bolster his chances to win the award for the second time with an impressive performance in front of a national audience.

The Ravens are 19-3-1 against the spread in their past 23 games as an underdog. The 49ers are 5 1/2-point favorites, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Pro Picks expects San Francisco to edge the Ravens in a close one decided by a field goal.

49ERS, 26-23

BUFFALO at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Line: Bills minus 12 1/2

The Bills (8-6) are back in playoff contention and even have a shot at the AFC East after beating Kansas City and dominating Dallas. The Chargers (5-9) play their first game under interim coach Giff Smith after a lopsided loss got Brandon Staley fired.

BEST BET: BILLS, 34-13

JACKSONVILLE at TAMPA BAY

Line: Buccaneers minus 1 1/2

Baker Mayfield had a perfect passer rating at Lambeau Field and the Buccaneers (7-7) have won three in a row to move into first place in the NFC South. They have an even bigger game next week against New Orleans. The Jaguars (8-6) have lost three in a row to lose their grip on first place in the AFC South. Trevor Lawrence is in concussion protocol. The Jaguars, who are 9-1 against the spread in their past 10 road games, need Lawrence to snap a losing streak.

UPSET SPECIAL: JAGUARS, 24-23

CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH

Line: Bengals minus 1 1/2

Jake Browning has led the Bengals (8-6) to three straight wins and a spot in the wild-card race since losing his first start to Pittsburgh. The Steelers (7-7) have lost three in a row since that 16-10 win in Cincinnati. Steelers QB Kenny Pickett returned to practice this week but Mason Rudolph is expected to start. The Steelers are 20-6-4 in their past 30 games as a home underdog.

BENGALS, 23-16

INDIANAPOLIS at ATLANTA

Line: Falcons minus 1 1/2

The Colts (8-6) have won five of six to position themselves for a wild-card spot. They’ve scored at least 27 points in six of their past eight games. Two straight losses have knocked the Falcons (6-8) out of first place in the NFC South and now they’re benching QB Desmond Ridder and going back to Taylor Heinicke.

FALCONS, 26-24

GREEN BAY at CAROLINA

Line: Packers minus 4 1/2

The Packers (6-8) are reeling after two straight losses. They must win to climb back into the wild-card race. The Panthers (2-12) aim to ruin another team’s playoff hopes after beating Atlanta.

PACKERS, 24-16

CLEVELAND at HOUSTON

Line: Browns minus 2 1/2

Joe Flacco has helped the injury-depleted Browns (9-5) stay in contention for a division title while leading the AFC wild-card race. Cleveland has allowed more points on the road than any team this season and fewest at home. The Texans (8-6) are in a three-way tie for first place and again may have to rely on backup QB Case Keenum because C.J. Stroud was still in concussion protocol on Wednesday.

BROWNS, 23-21

DETROIT at MINNESOTA

Line: Lions minus 3

The Lions (10-4) will clinch the NFC North with a win. They’re averaging 33 points per game indoors this season. QB Nick Mullens makes his second start for the Vikings (7-7) as they compete for a wild-card spot.

LIONS, 30-26

WASHINGTON at NEW YORK JETS

Line: Jets minus 3

This is the worst matchup of the week. The Commanders (4-10) have lost five in a row. The Jets (5-9) have lost six of seven and will have to wait until next season for Aaron Rodgers to return.

COMMANDERS, 17-13

SEATTLE at TENNESSEE

Line: Seahawks minus 2 1/2

Drew Lock led the Seahawks (7-7) on an improbable game-winning drive against Philadelphia on Monday night and back into the wild-card race. The Titans (5-9) are much improved with Will Levis at quarterback.

TITANS, 23-20

ARIZONA at CHICAGO

Line: Bears minus 4 1/2

The Bears (5-9) have won three of five with two one-score losses. They’ve been more competitive since Justin Fields returned on Nov. 19. The Cardinals (3-11) still have an outside shot at the No. 1 overall pick.

BEARS, 22-19

DALLAS at MIAMI

Line: Dolphins minus 1 1/2

Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins (10-4) are still seeking their first win against a team with a winning record. The Cowboys (10-4) are coming off a lopsided loss at Buffalo, but still have a shot at winning the NFC East. Dallas is 12-1 against the spread after a loss since 2021.

COWBOYS, 30-27

NEW ENGLAND at DENVER

Line: Broncos minus 6 1/2

The Patriots (3-11) can’t even cover the spread, going 3-14-1 against the line over their past 18 games. Russell Wilson and the Broncos (7-7) can’t afford a slip-up as they compete for a wild-card berth.

BRONCOS, 20-12

LAS VEGAS at KANSAS CITY

Line: Chiefs minus 10

The Chiefs (9-5) have averaged 35.5 points against the Raiders (6-8) in 11 games with Patrick Mahomes. After putting 63 points up against the Chargers, Las Vegas faces a much tougher defense.

CHIEFS, 27-16

NEW YORK GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA

Line: Eagles minus 11 1/2

The Eagles (10-4) have lost three straight games, they’re pointing fingers and their fan base is in panic mode. Here comes Tommy DeVito and the Giants (5-9) to provide relief.

EAGLES, 34-17