Pro Picks: Ravens will beat the Dolphins in a battle for the AFC's No. 1 seed

Updated Dec. 29, 2023 12:04 a.m. ET

Associated Press

Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.

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The AFC’s No. 1 seed is on the line when Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens host Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.

Fresh off a convincing 33-19 victory over the NFC's top team, the San Francisco 49ers, the Ravens (12-3) have a tough challenge standing between them and a first-round bye.

The Dolphins (11-4) finally beat a team with a winning record last week in their fourth try. Now, they've got a shot at home-field advantage and a bye. If they lose, they could be playing against Buffalo for the AFC East title next week. So they'd go from battling for the No. 1 seed to potentially finishing with the fifth or sixth spot.

The Ravens are 3 1/2-point favorites, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. They've defeated seven winning teams by at least 14 points. Pro Picks expects Baltimore to win by single-digits.

RAVENS, 27-20

ARIZONA at PHILADELPHIA

Line: Eagles minus 10 1/2

The Cardinals (3-12) will try to spoil Philadelphia’s playoff positioning when coach Jonathan Gannon faces his former team. The Eagles (11-4) are coming off a shaky win that snapped a three-game losing streak, but still control their division title hopes and have a shot at the No. 1 seed if San Francisco slips up.

BEST BET: EAGLES, 30-16

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS at DENVER

Line: Broncos minus 3 1/2

Russell Wilson got benched for Jarrett Stidham with the Broncos (7-8) nearing playoff elimination following a crushing loss at home to lowly New England. The Chargers (5-10) are onto next season.

UPSET SPECIAL: CHARGERS, 19-16

DETROIT at DALLAS

Line: Cowboys minus 6

Undefeated at home, the Cowboys (10-5) still have a shot at the NFC East if they win and get help. They’re a much different team on the road. The Lions (11-4) remain in the mix for the No. 1 seed after winning their first division title in 30 years. They’ll need to win out and have the 49ers and Eagles lose to earn a first-round bye.

COWBOYS, 31-27

NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO

Line: Bills minus 11 1/2

Josh Allen and the Bills (9-6) can’t afford to look ahead to a potential showdown for the AFC East against the Dolphins. The Patriots (4-11) try to play spoiler after smashing Denver’s playoff hopes.

BILLS, 26-9

ATLANTA at CHICAGO

Line: Bears minus 3

Justin Fields and the Bears (6-9) have won four of six and are trying to finish the season on an encouraging note. The Falcons (7-8) are nearing playoff elimination so they'll be desperate for a win after Taylor Heinicke sparked the offense.

BEARS, 24-20

TENNESSEE at HOUSTON

Line: Texans minus 4 1/2

The Texans (8-7) could get C.J. Stroud back after missing two games just in time to help them get a wild-card spot. The Titans (5-10) are playing for pride.

TEXANS, 24-17

LAS VEGAS at INDIANAPOLIS

Line: Colts minus 3 1/2

The Raiders (7-8) need a win to stay alive in the playoff race after upsetting Kansas City on the road without completing a pass in the final three quarters. The Colts (8-7) will get in with two more wins.

COLTS, 26-18

LOS ANGELES RAMS at NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Rams minus 4 1/2

The Rams (8-7) have won five of six to move into a wild-card spot in a season that began with low expectations. The Giants (5-10) are eliminated from the playoffs after starting the season with high aspirations.

RAMS, 23-18

SAN FRANCISCO at WASHINGTON

Line: 49ers minus 12 1/2

Brock Purdy aims to bounce back from four picks and the 49ers (11-4) can move a step closer to locking in the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The Commanders (4-11) are benching Sam Howell for Jacoby Brissett after losing six in a row to move in position for a top five draft pick.

49ERS, 34-13

CAROLINA at JACKSONVILLE

Line: Jaguars minus 6

The banged-up Jaguars (8-7) are still in control of the AFC South despite losing four in a row. They may not have Trevor Lawrence against the Panthers (2-13) because of a shoulder sprain.

JAGUARS, 23-13

NEW ORLEANS at TAMPA BAY

Line: Buccaneers minus 2 1/2

Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers (8-7) are the hottest team in the NFC and can secure their third straight NFC South title with their fifth straight win. The Saints (7-8) need a win to stay in the playoff race.

BUCCANEERS, 23-18

PITTSBURGH at SEATTLE

Line: Seahawks minus 3 1/2

The Seahawks (8-7) control their playoff hopes after consecutive comeback wins in the final minute. The Steelers (8-7) need to win to stay in the wild-card chase. They’ll stick with Mason Rudolph at quarterback if Kenny Pickett can’t go.

SEAHAWKS, 22-20

CINCINNATI at KANSAS CITY

Line: Chiefs minus 7

These aren’t the same Chiefs (9-6) who won the Super Bowl last season. Patrick Mahomes and Co. are struggling but are still one win away from clinching their eighth straight AFC West title. The Bengals (8-7) are still chasing a wild-card spot with QB Jake Browning.

CHIEFS, 27-17

GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA

Line: Vikings minus 1 1/2

The Packers (7-8) have struggled on defense since beating Kansas City on Dec. 3. The Vikings (7-8) need QB Nick Mullens to stop turning the ball over. It’s a must-win game for both teams with fading playoff hopes.

VIKINGS, 26-23