Pro Picks: Week 4 features 5 home underdogs and three unbeaten underdogs
Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.
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Five home underdogs, a winless favorite and three undefeated underdogs highlight the NFL’s Week 4 schedule.
The Bills, Vikings and Seahawks are among five 3-0 teams but they’re road dogs this weekend. The Bengals are 0-3 but they’re road favorites.
Home field isn’t an odds advantage for the Giants, Colts, Buccaneers, Panthers and Chargers.
Oddsmakers are still trying to figure teams out in September, giving respect to some based on last year’s success and waiting for others to earn more trust.
Pro Picks aims for a fourth straight winning week.
Cincinnati at Carolina
Line: Bengals minus 4
Andy Dalton and the Panthers (1-2) are getting no respect after the veteran quarterback excelled in his first start, leading Carolina to its first victory. Joe Burrow and the Bengals (0-3) are reeling. They can’t afford another loss with their playoff hopes already on the ropes. Expect Joe Cool to come out slinging.
BEST BET: BENGALS: 27-13
Minnesota at Green Bay
Line: Packers minus 2 1/2
Malik Willis has led the Packers (2-1) to two straight wins without Jordan Love thanks to the best rushing attack in the NFL at 204 yards per game and an opportunistic defense. The Vikings (3-0) are coming off back-to-back impressive wins over San Francisco and Houston and Sam Darnold is thriving. Minnesota’s defense presents a tough challenge for Willis or Love, if he returns from a knee injury. The Vikings are 6-1-2 against the spread in their past nine road games. The Packers are 5-1 against the spread in their past six home games. Something has to give.
UPSET SPECIAL: VIKINGS: 24-23
Dallas at New York Giants
Line: Cowboys minus 5 1/2
Dallas (1-2) can’t stop the run or run the ball. The Cowboys are fortunate to be facing the Giants (1-2) on Thursday night. Daniel Jones has played better this season but a motivated Micah Parsons should make his night difficult. The Cowboys have won six in a row in the series, 13 of 14 and outscored New York 89-17 last season. Dak Prescott has won his past 12 starts vs. the Giants.
COWBOYS: 27-17
New Orleans at Atlanta
Line: Falcons minus 2 1/2
Kirk Cousins was a missed call away from leading the Falcons (1-2) to a comeback win against the two-time defending champion Chiefs. Derek Carr and the Saints (2-1) struggled against Philadelphia after two dominant performances. New Orleans has won five of the past six games in Atlanta. But this is a revamped Falcons team with Cousins, playmakers and a strong defense.
FALCONS: 23-20
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago
Line: Bears minus 3
The Bears (1-2) need to run the ball better to help Caleb Williams and the offensive line must protect him. He should have success facing the league’s worst defense. The Rams (1-2) have allowed the most yards (425.7 per game) this season. Matthew Stafford, despite a depleted supporting cast, should keep Los Angeles close.
BEARS: 23-19
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis
Line: Steelers minus 1 1/2
No team wins more games playing old-school football than the Steelers (3-0). They run the ball, have a tenacious defense and Justin Fields is making enough plays without mistakes. The Colts (1-2) could learn from Pittsburgh. Anthony Richardson has only completed 49.6% of his passes this season and had five picks in the past two games. That spells doom against T.J. Watt and the Steelers.
STEELERS: 19-16
Denver at New York Jets
Line: Jets minus 7 1/2
Aaron Rodgers is back to playing like a four-time MVP and the Jets (2-1) seem to just be getting started. He’ll face a stout Broncos defense this week. Bo Nix is coming off his best game, though he faced an injury-depleted defense in Tampa Bay. He still hasn’t thrown a TD pass. The point spread seems too big, making New York the play.
JETS: 26-13
Philadelphia at Tampa Bay
Line: Eagles minus 2
The Eagles (2-1) could be without starting wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The Buccaneers (2-1) are banged-up on defense without All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr., though they’re hoping defensive tackles Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey can return. It’s revenge game for Philadelphia after an embarrassing loss to Tampa Bay in a wild-card game last postseason.
EAGLES: 25-20
Jacksonville at Houston
Line: Texans minus 6 1/2
Trevor Lawrence has regressed and the Jaguars (0-3) are in trouble after entering the season with high expectations. C.J. Stroud and the Texans (2-1) aim to rebound from a disappointing loss. Houston has dominated the series, winning 10 of the past 12 meetings. Jacksonville is desperate enough to stay close but hard to see an upset after a listless effort in Buffalo.
TEXANS: 23-22
Washington at Arizona
Line: Cardinals minus 3 1/2
Kyler Murray could have a big day throwing to Marvin Harrison Jr. against a pass defense that’s ranked 29th. It would help him if the Cardinals (1-2) could run the ball more effectively. Jayden Daniels has been impressive for the Commanders (2-1) and this game probably means a little more to offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who was Arizona’s coach. Still, it’ll be hard for Washington to win on the road on a short week after a road win Monday night.
CARDINALS: 26-20
New England at San Francisco
Line: 49ers minus 10 1/2
The Super Bowl hangover is real. The 49ers (1-2) keep losing star players and games despite Brock Purdy’s best efforts. Somehow, they’re double-digit favorites against the rested Patriots (1-2). This is another game where a big line makes the home team the pick to cover the spread.
49ERS: 27-13
Cleveland at Las Vegas
Line: Raiders minus 2
The Browns (1-2) have too much talent to keep losing games. Myles Garrett is playing through injuries and his presence is enough to cause Gardner Minshew nightmares.
BROWNS: 22-16
Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers
Line: Chiefs minus 7 1/2
Justin Herbert’s status is uncertain because of an ankle injury. With him, the Chargers (2-1) should be competitive. Without him, Taylor Heinicke will have to rely on a strong run game. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (3-0) are unbeaten despite playing inconsistent ball. Jim Harbaugh’s first crack at the two-time defending Super Bowl champions is spoiled by Herbert’s uncertainty and the absence of suspended safety Derwin James.
CHIEFS: 27-17
Buffalo at Baltimore
Line: Ravens minus 2 1/2
Josh Allen has been outstanding in leading the Bills (3-0) to a hot start. The Ravens (1-2) saved their season in Dallas and need Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry to get rolling on the ground, control the clock and keep Allen and Co. off the field.
RAVENS: 26-23
Tennessee at Miami
Line: Dolphins minus 1
Tua Tagovailoa’s absence has turned the Dolphins (1-2) from a contender to a pretender. Whether it’s Skylar Thompson, Tim Boyle or Tyler Huntley under center, Miami has to get the ball to a star-studded cast of playmakers. The Titans (0-3) are going through growing pains and should offer the Dolphins relief.
DOLPHINS: 20-17
Seattle at Detroit
Line: Lions minus 3 1/2
Geno Smith and the unbeaten Seahawks (3-0) face their toughest challenge so far after beating the Broncos, Patriots and Dolphins. The Lions (2-1) have injury problems on defense and Jared Goff hasn’t been able to get the downfield passing game going. But the running game behind David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs is capable of carrying the offense until Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and the receivers start clicking.
LIONS: 24-22
Last week: Straight up: 9-7. Against spread: 11-5
Overall: Straight up: 32-16. Against spread: 28-18-2
Thursday: Straight up: 2-1. Against spread: 2-1.
Monday: Straight up: 2-2. Against spread: 2-2.
Best Bet: Straight up: 2-1. Against spread: 2-1.
Upset Special: Straight up: 3-0. Against spread: 3-0.
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