Ravens vs. Chiefs Championship Game Prediction, Odds, Picks - Jan 28

Published Jan. 24, 2024 1:06 p.m. ET

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The Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs will play in the AFC Championship game of the 2023 NFL Playoffs. The Ravens are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -3.5). The over/under for this one is set at 44.5 points.

Ravens vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Lines

Ravens vs. Chiefs Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Baltimore (-3.5)
  
• Pick OU: Under (44.5)
  
• Prediction: Baltimore 27 - Kansas City 15

How to Watch Baltimore vs. Kansas City

• Game Date: Sunday, January 28, 2024
• Time: 3:00 PM ET
• Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
• Location: Baltimore, Maryland
• TV: Watch on CBS

Ravens vs. Chiefs Recent Matchups

• In their last five head-to-head matchups, Kansas City has won against Baltimore three times.
• Over their last five head-to-head contests, Kansas City has put up 107 points, while Baltimore has tallied 105.

Baltimore Betting Info

• Baltimore's record against the spread in the regular season was 11-6-0, and it is 1-0-0 versus the spread in the playoffs.
• When playing as at least 3.5-point favorites this season (regular season and playoffs), the Ravens have an ATS record of 8-5.
• There were eight Baltimore games (out of 17) that went over the total during the regular season, and it has had zero of one postseason game hit the over.
• The Ravens won 78.6% of the games in the regular season when they were the moneyline favorite (11-3). As moneyline favorites in the postseason, they have a record of 1-0.
• Baltimore is 8-3 (winning 72.7% of its games) when it has played as a moneyline favorite of -192 or shorter, including the regular season and playoffs.
• Looking at this game's moneyline, the Ravens' implied win probability is 65.8%.

Ravens Stats

Baltimore's Key Players

Offense

• Lamar Jackson has thrown for 3,678 yards, 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions this year. He is averaging 229.9 yards per game and 8.0 per attempt, while completing 67.2% of his passes.
• He has also rushed for 821 yards (first on the Ravens) and added five touchdowns on the ground, while averaging 51.3 rushing yards per game.
• Gus Edwards' rushing output this season includes 810 yards and 13 TDs. He's averaging 47.6 yards per game and 4.1 per attempt (23rd in the NFL).
• Edwards has 12 receptions on 13 targets for 180 yards. He has not scored a touchdown in the passing game.
• Zay Flowers has five touchdown catches this season, and has 77 catches for 858 yards on 108 targets, while averaging 4.8 catches and 53.6 yards per game.
• Justice Hill has run for 387 yards, averaging 24.2 yards per game and scoring three touchdowns.
• Hill's 39 receiving targets have led to 28 receptions (1.8 per game) for 206 yards (12.9 per game) and one TD.

Defense

• Over on the defensive side, Roquan Smith has one interception to go with 158 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and eight passes defended in 2023.
• Patrick Queen has 133 tackles, 9.0 TFL, 3.5 sacks, and one interception this season. He's second on the Ravens in tackles.
• Justin Madubuike has recorded 56 tackles, 12.0 TFL, and 13 sacks this year.
• So far this season, Kyle Hamilton has 81 tackles, 10.0 TFL, three sacks, and four interceptions.

Kansas City Betting Info

• Against the spread, Kansas City was 10-7-0 during the regular season. In the playoffs, it has an ATS record of 2-0-0.
• The Chiefs are unbeaten ATS (1-0) as 3.5-point underdogs or greater during the regular season and playoffs.
• Out of 17 Kansas City games in the regular season, five hit the over. As for the playoffs, one of two games have eclipsed the over.
• The Chiefs won the only game they played as underdogs during the regular season, and have gone 1-0 in the postseason.
• Kansas City has not been a bigger underdog in the regular season or playoffs this season than the +160 moneyline set for this game.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 38.5% chance of a victory for the Chiefs.

Chiefs Stats

Kansas City's Key Players

Offense

• Patrick Mahomes II has thrown for 4,183 yards this year (to rank sixth in the NFL), with 27 touchdowns (eighth in the NFL) and 14 interceptions. He is completing 67.2% of his attempts while averaging 261.4 yards per game and 7.0 per attempt.
• He's added 389 yards on the ground (second on the Chiefs), while scoring zero rushing touchdowns. He's averaging 24.3 yards per game and 5.2 per attempt.
• Isiah Pacheco has 935 rushing yards (leading the Chiefs) and seven rushing touchdowns, while averaging 66.8 yards per game and 4.6 per attempt (11th in the NFL).
• Pacheco also has 44 catches for 244 yards (sixth on the Chiefs), with two receiving touchdowns. He has been targeted 49 times and averages 17.4 yards per game.
• Rashee Rice has totaled 938 receiving yards and seven touchdowns on 79 receptions, while being targeted 102 times on the season.
• Travis Kelce has been targeted 121 times, resulting in 93 catches for 984 yards .

Defense

• In 2023, Justin Reid has put up 3.0 sacks to go with 5.0 TFL, 95 tackles, and one interception over 16 games.
• Trent McDuffie has 80 tackles, 3.0 TFL, three sacks, and seven passes defended.
• L'Jarius Sneed has 78 tackles, 5.0 TFL, and two interceptions in the 2023 season. He is third on the Chiefs in tackles.
• Chris Jones' season stats include 30 tackles, 13.0 TFL, and 10.5 sacks through 16 games.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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